Rafael Nogueira
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Botafogo RJ welcome Gremio to Estádio Nilton Santos in a fixture that matters more for pride than table position, since both sides sit in the bottom half of the Série A standings. The hosts arrive off back-to-back draws and sit 14th with 32 points, four clear of Gremio in 17th. Scolari’s men have lost their last two on the road, yet oddly scored more goals over their last five matches than Botafogo did despite firing far fewer shots, a finishing gap that shapes our whole read on this game.
Watch Danilo for the hosts. He carries Botafogo’s attack with a goal and an assist across the last five games and leads the squad in shots taken. For Gremio, Carlos Vinícius is the man in form, netting twice in his last five outings and drawing the highest shot count among their forwards. Both attackers will need to be sharp against defenses that have shown cracks lately.
Hot stat: Botafogo fired 107 shots across their last five matches and scored just 4 goals, a conversion rate barely above 3.5%. Gremio needed only 57 shots to score 7 in the same span, over three times more efficient in front of goal. That gap alone tells us plenty about where this game could swing.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Campeonato Brasileiro Série A 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estádio Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro |
| 🗓️ Date: | 17.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 00:30 CEST |
Botafogo RJ vs Gremio prediction
We predict Botafogo edge this one at home but not by a wide margin. Home advantage and a bookmaker-favoured 55% win probability count for something, but the Fogão’s finishing struggles cap our confidence in a comfortable win. Gremio’s defense has leaked goals in three of their last five, which keeps a Botafogo win with both teams scoring the value angle rather than a straight moneyline punt.
Botafogo pass at 84% accuracy and pick up more corners (32 in five games against Gremio’s 15), a sign of a side that dominates territory without punishing it. Gremio commit more fouls (69 vs 59) and collect more cards (17 vs 14), pointing to a scrappier, more physical away approach that could slow Botafogo’s rhythm and produce a stop-start match rather than a free-flowing one.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Botafogo RJ Win & BTTS Yes |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Botafogo’s last five results read draw, draw, loss, loss, win, a run that includes a 1-1 stalemate with Bragantino, a goalless draw against Palmeiras, and a heavy 0-3 defeat to Flamengo. The finishing problems highlighted above are visible throughout: they held their own defensively against Palmeiras and Bragantino but simply could not turn possession into goals. In our preview of Botafogo RJ vs Bragantino we backed the hosts to avoid defeat paired with an under 2.5 goals line, and the 1-1 result delivered on both counts.
Gremio’s form shows the reverse pattern: two straight losses to Vasco (1-2) and Vitoria (0-1) follow a stretch of wins over Internacional (3-1) and Chapecoense (3-1), plus a scoreless draw with Internacional. Their attack has looked sharp in patches, but the recent defensive slide, conceding in each of the last two, is a concern heading into a trip to Rio.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Botafogo RJ | Gremio |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (last 5 meetings) | 9 | 9 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Botafogo RJ vs Gremio stats page for more info.
Gremio. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Botafogo RJ the favourite
- Moneyline Botafogo RJ 1.70 | Gremio 4.65
- Draw 3.72
Books price Botafogo around 55% to win, with Gremio’s away odds near 4.65 reflecting their poor recent record on the road. The draw sitting close to 3.72 makes sense given how tight the last five head-to-head meetings have been on goals. We see value in Botafogo’s price given home comfort at Nilton Santos, though the gap to Gremio is not so wide that an upset should be dismissed outright.
Possible Starting Lineups
Botafogo RJ possible starting eleven
- GK: Gabriel Batista
- DF: Vitinho, Nahuel Ferraresi, Gabriel Justino, Alex Telles
- MF: Allan, Huguinho, Álvaro Montoro, Edenilson, Danilo
- FW: Júnior Santos
Bellão sticks with the 4-2-3-1 that has featured in every recent game. Allan and Huguinho shield the back four, while Montoro and Edenilson supply the creativity behind Júnior Santos. Danilo, nominally a forward, drops into the attacking midfield line and remains the player most likely to unlock a stubborn Gremio defense.
Gremio possible starting eleven
- GK: Weverton Pereira da Silva
- DF: Diego Caito, Wagner Leonardo, Gustavo Martins, Walter Kannemann
- MF: Mathias Villasanti, Erick Noriega, Filip Krovinović, Tetê, José Enamorado
- FW: Carlos Vinícius
Scolari also lines up in a 4-2-3-1, with Villasanti and Noriega holding the middle. Krovinović pulls the strings just behind Carlos Vinícius, who leads the line as the club’s sharpest finisher of late. Tetê and Enamorado provide width and pace on the counter, a threat Botafogo’s back four must respect given their own struggles with corners conceded.
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Botafogo RJ. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict a narrow Botafogo win, perhaps 2-1, built on home comfort and Gremio’s shaky away form rather than any sudden fix to the hosts’ finishing. Both defenses have shown cracks in recent weeks, four Botafogo losses avoided by narrow margins and Gremio conceding in four of five, so both teams to score reads as the safer add-on. Backing Botafogo with BTTS gives a balanced view of a game we expect to be tighter than the odds suggest, with goals at both ends more likely than a clean sheet for either side.
Read also: Botafogo – RJ vs Grêmio – RS: Predicted Line-ups, Confirmed Absentees & Team News
Read also: Botafogo – RJ vs Grêmio – RS Head-to-Head: Record, Stats & Form (Updated September 2026)
