Shelbourne vs Bohemians Prediction: 22.06.2026 League of Ireland Premier Division

This Dublin derby at Tolka Park carries serious weight in the League of Ireland Premier Division standings. Bohemians sit 4th with 20 points from 13 games, while Shelbourne are 8th with 13 points from 12 — meaning Shels are playing catch-up in a fixture where bragging rights alone won’t be enough. The bookmakers have this one nearly perfectly split, with Bohemians holding the slightest of edges at 37% implied probability against Shelbourne’s 36%. That margin is thin enough to make the draw a real consideration, especially given how often these two have shared points in recent years.

Harry Wood is the player to watch for Shelbourne. Three goals and three assists in his last five matches make him far and away the most productive player in the squad, and his 19 shots in that span show he’s not shy about pulling the trigger. On the Bohemians side, Dawson Devoy has been quietly excellent — 20 shots, 5 interceptions, 305 passes, and contributions of 1 goal and 2 assists across five matches. He drives everything Bohs do in midfield and tends to show up in big games.

Hot stat: Bohemians have recorded 32 corner kicks across their last five matches — more than double Shelbourne’s 13 — which points to a team that consistently pushes into dangerous areas and forces defensive decisions. That corner volume could be decisive if this match stays tight and set pieces become the primary route to goal.

Shelbourne vs Bohemians Prediction

Shelbourne have not won in their last four matches, losing all four. Bohemians are in slightly better shape — two draws mixed into three losses over the last 30 days — but neither side is in particularly convincing form heading into this one. The head-to-head record between these two is dominated by draws and narrow margins. Four of the last eight meetings ended level, and only one of those games produced more than three goals. That pattern is hard to ignore.

Bohemians have been the more active attacking team recently, posting 85 shots and 10 goals across five games compared to Shelbourne’s 68 shots and 7 goals. Bohs also commit more fouls — 66 versus Shelbourne’s 51 — which reflects a more aggressive pressing style. Shelbourne, by contrast, have been more conservative, averaging fewer passes and a slightly lower pass accuracy, suggesting they’ll likely sit deeper and look to hit on transitions. Given Shelbourne’s home advantage and Bohemians’ tendency to dominate possession and create chances, a low-scoring encounter where one goal decides things feels the most probable outcome. We think the draw is the value pick here, with both sides capable of nicking a goal but neither currently reliable enough to run away with it.

Team Analysis

Shelbourne’s recent form is genuinely difficult to defend. Four losses on the bounce — against Drogheda (2-2 draw before that streak), Shamrock Rovers, Galway, Derry City, and Waterford United — tells a story of a squad that has been inconsistent at best. The 2-1 win over Shamrock Rovers on May 31st looked like a turning point, but they’ve failed to build on it. Their last outing ended in a 2-2 draw with Drogheda, a team sitting just below them in the table, which is the kind of dropped points that hurts when the season tightens up. Joey O’Brien will need his side to find some defensive discipline — they’ve conceded 21 goals in 12 league games, which is not the record of a team that can afford to go toe-to-toe with anyone.

Bohemians’ last match was a 1-2 home defeat to Dundalk, which snapped a run that had included wins over Sligo Rovers (3-1) and Galway (4-2). That 4-2 win over Galway was genuinely impressive and showed what Bohs are capable of when things click — Dayle Rooney, Ross Tierney, and Dawson Devoy combining to overwhelm a side that had given Shelbourne trouble. The loss to Derry (1-4) before the Sligo win is the one that stands out as a concern, because it showed how badly Bohemians can ship goals when they’re caught on a bad day. Alan Reynolds has a squad with attacking quality, but the defensive side has been inconsistent in patches.

Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches

These two sides have met eight times across competitive and friendly fixtures since early 2024. The results paint a picture of two evenly matched teams — four draws, two Shelbourne wins, and two Bohemians wins. No side has dominated this fixture in recent memory, and the scorelines have mostly been tight. The last league meeting in 2026 ended 0-0, and their January friendly finished 2-2. That context matters going into Monday night.

🚨Check out our dedicated Shelbourne vs Bohemians stats page for more info.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Bohemians Slight Favourite

• Moneyline Shelbourne 2.65 | Bohemians 2.55
• Draw 3.10

The bovada lines at 2.65 and 2.55 reflect just how close this one is. Honestly, the draw at 3.10 looks undervalued given the head-to-head history and the current form of both sides — neither team is playing with the kind of confidence that usually produces a decisive win in a derby setting. Shelbourne’s home record hasn’t been strong enough this season to justify backing them at those odds, and Bohemians, despite their better overall numbers, have lost their last competitive fixture. The 3.10 on the draw is the line that catches the eye.

Possible Starting Lineups

Shelbourne Possible Starting Eleven

Wessel Speel gets the nod in goal — he’s made 9 saves across five matches and is clearly the first-choice keeper. The back four picks itself based on appearances, with Paddy Barrett a slight concern after picking up 3 yellow cards in five games. He’s aggressive and that could be a problem against Bohemians’ physical front line. Harry Wood in the attacking midfield role is non-negotiable given his form. Shelbourne are likely to line up in their preferred 4-2-3-1 shape, with Lunney and Caffrey sitting as the double pivot, and Wood operating behind Odubeko and Boyd. Daniel Kelly provides width and a useful outlet down the right.

Bohemians Possible Starting Eleven

Kacper Chorazka has played in four of the last five games and is the likely starter, though Paul Walters has featured enough to push him. Patrick Hickey has been one of Bohemians’ more complete outfield performers — 8 shots, 5 interceptions, and a goal from right back in five matches. Dawson Devoy anchors the midfield and is the one player Shelbourne will need to manage carefully. Bohemians in their 4-2-3-1 setup tend to overload the middle third and use Dayle Rooney as a creative outlet — his 3 assists in five games is the kind of production that can shift a derby. James Taylor up front has 2 goals in his last four outings and will be a threat on second balls.

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The Verdict

This is a Derby where the numbers lean toward caution. Shelbourne have lost four straight, conceded freely, and are at home without the form to back up home advantage. Bohemians have better recent attacking stats but just lost to Dundalk and have been inconsistent defensively when under pressure. The head-to-head across the last two years keeps returning to draws and one-goal margins — that’s not a coincidence, it’s a pattern. We think this ends 1-1, with both teams finding the net once but neither doing enough to take all three points. The draw market at 3.10 is where the value sits, and BTTS yes at whatever price is available feels like a reasonable secondary play given both teams have scored in recent meetings. Corners over 8.5 is also worth considering — Bohemians alone average more than 6 corners per game across their last five matches.

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