Real Valladolid vs Alavés Predictions: Odds and betting tips for La Liga 2024/25 Match - 18.05.2025

On the evening of May 18th, 2025, football fans will turn their gaze to Estadio José Zorrilla in Valladolid as Real Valladolid host Alavés in a pivotal La Liga regular season clash. Scheduled for 20:00 CEST, this encounter not only represents the final home fixture of the season for Real Valladolid, but also a significant opportunity for Alavés to cement their top-flight status and finish the campaign on a high note. With La Liga’s trademark fervour expected at the iconic José Zorrilla and both teams fighting under the guidance of coaches Álvaro Rubio (Valladolid) and Eduardo Coudet (Alavés), the stakes are set for a dramatic encounter, brimming with tactical intrigue and emotional intensity.

Amongst a talent-rich pool, keep an eye on Real Valladolid’s versatile attacker Iván San José Cantalejo, whose double strike in recent fixtures offers a glimmer of hope for the hosts, and Alavés’ relentless midfielder Antonio Blanco, whose orchestrative play is fundamental to the visitors’ dynamic game plan.

The “hot stat”? Real Valladolid have conceded a league-high 86 goals in 36 games this season, underlining the severe defensive issues that continue to plague their campaign.

🏅Best bets for Real Valladolid vs Alavés at Thunderpick with a Welcome offer +100% up to 600€💰

Real Valladolid vs Alavés predictions

Me best bet: Alavés to win (Moneyline). Given the contrasting form and defensive records, the clearest value emerges on a direct away victory. Alavés come into this fixture with a 40 percent win rate over the last 30 days and a marked organizational superiority, whereas Real Valladolid have lost all of their last six matches and have registered just one win in 19 games since the turn of the year. The visitors, marshalled by Coudet’s disciplined 4-1-4-1 system, combine high work rate with defensive solidity—a formula that should be too robust for a leaky Valladolid backline.

Tactically, Alavés often set their pressing traps in midfield, leading to high interception and foul counts (74 fouls and 14 yellows in their last five), but crucially, they maintain better control in transition than Real Valladolid, who average lower ball possession and commit 48 fouls with just six yellows in the same span. Valladolid’s lack of pressing intensity and their tendency to leave space between the lines have ruthlessly exposed their rearguard—something Alavés can exploit with direct runs from midfield.

• ⚽Total Goals: Under 2.5
• 💥Both Teams To Score: No
• 🎯Total Corners: Over 8.5

Best bets this month available at Thunderpick

Real Valladolid vs Alavés Most recent H2Hs

Historically, encounters between these two sides are tightly contested, though recent momentum swings in favour of Alavés. Their previous meeting in this La Liga season showcased a dogged midfield battle, yet it was the visitors’ ability to create higher-quality chances and force defensive errors that tipped the balance. Real Valladolid’s difficulty in containing direct attacks remains a recurring issue, highlighted by their lower interception totals and frequent lapses in concentration when defending set pieces.

🚨Read our full Real Valladolid vs Alavés stats for more analysis.

Key Stats

• Real Valladolid have lost 28 of their 36 league matches, registering the highest loss tally in La Liga this season.
• Alavés have kept two clean sheets in their last five matches and conceded only three goals during that span.
• Valladolid have conceded an average of 2.39 goals per game at home this season.
• Alavés average 0.8 goals conceded per match over their previous five away games.
• Combined, the two teams have produced just eight goals in their last ten matches played.
• Valladolid’s average pass accuracy (82 percent) is notably higher than Alavés, but lack of penetration in the final third costs them dearly.
• Both teams prefer structured formations: Valladolid’s 4-2-3-1 vs Alavés’ 4-1-4-1.

Real Valladolid vs Alavés score prediction: 0-2

Given the persistent defensive vulnerabilities of the hosts and Alavés’ recent upturn in defensive discipline, the most likely scoreline is a 2-0 away win for Alavés. Expect Kike and Nahuel Tenaglia to play decisive roles in attack and build-up, while goalkeeper Antonio Sivera’s command of his penalty area should stifle Valladolid’s sporadic breakthroughs. For Valladolid, Iván San José Cantalejo remains their main hope in forward areas, yet sustained possession without incision is unlikely to break Alavés’ structured back four.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Alavés the favourite

• Moneyline Real Valladolid 6.50 | Alavés 1.55
• Draw 3.94
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.50 | Under 2.5 1.58
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.10 | No 1.68

With Real Valladolid enduring a season marred by defensive frailty and structural imbalances, bookmakers overwhelmingly back Alavés as the clear favourites. Odds averaging about 1.55 for an away win confirm both recent form and season-long performance discrepancies. Under 2.5 goals and “No” for both teams to score stand out as the safest plays, given Valladolid’s low scoring home record and Alavés’ rigid defensive posture.

Real Valladolid vs Alavés Over/Under Analysis

• Four of the last five matches featuring Real Valladolid have finished under 2.5 goals.
• Alavés games have stayed under 2.5 goals in three of their previous five fixtures.
• Alavés have not conceded more than once in any of their prior five away league matches.
• Valladolid have failed to score in three of their last five league games.

Real Valladolid Preview

Real Valladolid slip into this match on a disheartening run, losing all of their last six fixtures including a 0-1 home defeat to Girona and a heavy 1-5 loss against Real Betis. Scoring just five goals while conceding a staggering 86 across the campaign, their ability to stay compact defensively has dissipated as the season’s toll has mounted. Positional discipline has waned, and offensive creativity remains starkly limited outside of sporadic brilliance from Iván San José Cantalejo and Raul Moro. Coach Álvaro Rubio faces a daunting task attempting to stop the rot.

Real Valladolid possible starting eleven

Alavés Preview

Alavés, under the energetic management of Eduardo Coudet, have stabilised with just a single loss in their last five fixtures, combining surgical counter-attacks with a renewed defensive discipline. Their latest exploits—a tight 1-0 win over Valencia and a resolute 0-0 draw against Atletico Madrid—underline the team’s evolution as a compact, counterpressing unit. Key midfielder Antonio Blanco anchors transitions, while attacking output typically comes from fluid runners such as Kike and Carlos Vicente. Consistency across the backline, coupled with Antonio Sivera’s reliability in goal, sets the tone for a controlled away performance.

Alavés possible starting eleven

Our prediction: Who Wins?

As TipsGG experts, we see Alavés as clear favourites. Our main pick for the match is an Alavés victory, supported by a superior blend of tactical structure, better recent results, and Valladolid’s grim defensive record. According to our dedicated AI model, Alavés have a 61 percent win probability, with a draw at 24 percent and Valladolid at just 15 percent. Unless Real Valladolid produce an uncharacteristic display of resilience, Alavés should claim a straightforward win and strengthen their La Liga standing.

How to watch Real Valladolid vs Alavés

When?
Kick-off time: 18.05.2025, 20:00 CEST
Where?
Venue: Estadio José Zorrilla, Valladolid, Spain
How to watch: Available through regional La Liga broadcasters and official streaming platforms.
Favorite: Alavés

Best football betting sites and Bonuses

More useful links for football fans

• Football Teams Rankings
• Football Matches Today
• Current football tournaments
• Football betting guide by Tips.GG