Rafael Nogueira
Paysandu Pa host Santa Cruz at Estádio Leônidas Castro in Belém in what looks like a comfortable home assignment on paper. Paysandu sit second in the Série C table with 17 points from 8 games, just one point behind leaders Brusque, and their home support gives them a clear psychological edge. Santa Cruz, placed 13th with 11 points from 8 games, arrive with a modest 25% win rate over the past 30 days and a form string that reads more draws and losses than wins. The interesting angle here is the coaching matchup: veteran Brazilian Júnior Rocha against Luxembourg-born Jeff Strasser, who is an unusual presence in Brazilian football. Two players to track are Paysandu’s attacking output, which has produced 15 goals in 8 league games, and Santa Cruz’s defensive discipline, which has conceded only 6 in 8, suggesting this will not be a walkover despite the rankings gap.
Hot stat: Paysandu Pa have scored 4 goals in each of their last two home wins, including a 4-0 and a 4-2 in their most recent fixtures, demonstrating significant attacking volume at Estádio Leônidas Castro.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Campeonato Brasileiro Série C 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estádio Leônidas Castro, Belém, Brazil |
| 🗓️ Date: | 27.06.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 22:00 CEST |
Paysandu Pa vs Santa Cruz Prediction
The bookmakers price Paysandu as heavy favourites at roughly 52% implied probability, and the data backs that up. Paysandu’s 62% win rate across 37 games this year, combined with their 4-0 and 4-2 performances at home, signals a team playing with confidence and scoring freely. Santa Cruz have gone W-L-L-D-W-D over their last six, picking up just one win in their last four, and that win came against the third-bottom Volta Redonda. Their most recent outing was a 1-1 draw with Maringá, a team sitting below them in the table.
The best value bet here is a Paysandu win. The average home odds of around 1.75 reflect genuine probability rather than padding, and Paysandu’s attacking form at home makes goals likely. Santa Cruz defend reasonably well on paper with only 6 conceded in 8 league games, but they have not faced a home side of Paysandu’s quality yet in this campaign.
Paysandu’s form suggests an aggressive, direct style with high shot volumes, while Santa Cruz appear to sit deeper and rely on defensive structure. That setup could invite Paysandu pressure and corner situations. Santa Cruz’s tendency to draw, with 2 draws in 8 league games and several draws in their broader form string, means they will not necessarily capitulate, but holding Paysandu for 90 minutes at home is a different ask.
- We predict a Paysandu Pa win at odds around 1.75 as the primary bet.
- Over 2.5 goals looks attractive given Paysandu’s recent 4-0 and 4-2 home results.
- Paysandu to win and over 1.5 goals in the match is worth considering as a combined option.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Paysandu Pa to score in both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Paysandu Pa have been the standout side in Group A of the Série C so far. Their last five results include wins over Anapolis (4-0), Nacional-AM (4-2), Floresta EC (2-1), and Nacional-AM again (1-0), with one loss to Anapolis (1-3) sandwiched between. That loss looks like an anomaly given the context; the 4-0 revenge result in the very next fixture underlines the squad’s ability to respond. Júnior Rocha’s side are averaging close to 2 goals per game at home, and their win rate of 57% over the last 30 days across all competitions confirms they are in strong shape heading into this fixture.
Santa Cruz’s recent five-game run tells a more cautious story: a 1-1 draw with Maringá, a 2-0 win over Volta Redonda, a 2-1 win over Inter de Limeira, a 0-1 loss to Guarani, and a 0-1 loss to Amazonas. They have scored only 5 goals in those five games and failed to score in two of them. Jeff Strasser’s team shows some defensive solidity, but their attacking output is inconsistent, and they have not faced a home side with Paysandu’s firepower yet this season. The two losses to Guarani and Amazonas, both legitimate Série C contenders, suggest Santa Cruz struggle against organised, quality opposition.
🚨Check out our dedicated Paysandu Pa vs Santa Cruz stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Paysandu Pa the Favourite
- Moneyline Paysandu Pa 1.75 | Santa Cruz 4.50
- Draw 3.25
- Over/Under Over 2.5 ~2.00 | Under 2.5 ~1.80
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes ~2.10 | No ~1.65
The Paysandu moneyline at 1.75 is fair value given their home form and league position. Santa Cruz at 4.50 reflects a realistic long-shot, not a trap. The draw odds around 3.25 are tempting for anyone who thinks Santa Cruz’s defensive discipline could frustrate Paysandu, but their away record does not inspire enough confidence to back it. Over 2.5 goals is the secondary market worth targeting; Paysandu’s last two home games produced 6 and 6 goals combined, and even if Santa Cruz keep it tight, the hosts are capable of pushing past 2 goals on their own. BTTS No at 1.65 aligns with our view that Santa Cruz may struggle to find the net against a well-organised Paysandu defensive block when not at home.
Possible Starting Lineups
Paysandu Pa Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Glédson
- DF: Edilson, Peretti, Luan Freitas, Edílson
- MF: João Vieira, Leandro Vilela, Robinho
- FW: Nicolas, Esli Garcia, Jean Dias
Without full lineup data available, Júnior Rocha typically deploys a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 setup that prioritises width and quick transitions. The front three are the engine of their goal output, and whoever leads the line will be key given Paysandu’s habit of scoring early and often at home. The midfield trio tends to press high, which could expose Santa Cruz on the counter if they sit too deep.
Santa Cruz Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Jefferson
- DF: Toty, Xandão, Saimon, Júnior Constituinte
- MF: Renato Cajá, Vinicius Leite, Hygor
- FW: Rafael Thyere, Pipico, Thiaguinho
Jeff Strasser tends to set Santa Cruz up in a compact 4-3-3 or 4-4-2 that prioritises defensive shape, which explains their relatively low goals-against tally. Renato Cajá is the creative hub in midfield and will need to be sharp to create anything against a Paysandu side that defends well at home. Pipico carries the most threat in attack and is worth watching as a focal point for any Santa Cruz counter. To be honest, the squad depth available to Strasser away from home is the key question mark for this fixture.
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Santa Cruz. Source: Official Instagram. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Paysandu Pa are the clear pick here. They sit second in the Série C table, score freely at home, and face a Santa Cruz side that has won just once in four games and failed to score in two of their last five. The gap in current form, home advantage, and league position all point in one direction. We predict a Paysandu Pa win, with over 2.5 goals as the secondary bet worth pairing. Santa Cruz’s defensive record suggests they will not be dismantled easily, but Paysandu’s attacking volume at Estádio Leônidas Castro makes it difficult to see the visitors leaving with anything.
