Liam Duckstein
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OFI Crete host CSKA Sofia at the Theodoros Vardinogiannis Stadium in Heraklion in what is the first leg of the UEFA Europa League 2026/27 Playoffs. OFI arrive in poor form, having lost all three of their matches over the last 30 days, while CSKA Sofia travel from Bulgaria carrying six wins from their last nine outings. The contrast in momentum is sharp, and that makes this tie more one-sided than the neutral venue of a European playoff might suggest.
One player to watch is CSKA Sofia midfielder Stefano Sensi, who has contributed a goal across his last two matches and has been on the pitch for the full 180 minutes, showing his importance to Hristo Yanev’s system. On the forward line, Santiago Godoy has also chipped in with a goal and an assist in that same two-match stretch, making him a genuine threat against an OFI backline that has been leaking goals.
Hot stat: CSKA Sofia scored five goals against Botev Vratsa in their most recent league outing, taking their tally to nine goals across their last two matches. That kind of firepower against an OFI side that has failed to score in its last three games is a significant factor heading into this first leg.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Europa League 2026/27, Playoffs |
| 🏟 Venue: | Theodoros Vardinogiannis Stadium, Heraklion |
| 🗓️ Date: | 20.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:00 CEST |
OFI Crete vs CSKA Sofia Prediction
We predict a CSKA Sofia win in this first leg. The Bulgarian side have been in excellent shape, winning six of their last nine games and scoring freely. OFI have gone three straight matches without a win or a goal, and their European opponents over that stretch were Willem II and NAC Breda, neither of which are elite opposition. CSKA Sofia look the stronger, more consistent side right now, and backing them to take an away win in Heraklion carries real value at around 2.60.
OFI’s style under Christos Kontis has been fairly direct, but without the cutting edge to finish chances. CSKA Sofia press with intensity and use width effectively, which suits the 4-2-3-1 shape both sides favour. Bruno Jordão has collected two yellow cards in just two matches for Sofia, which hints at an aggressive midfield approach that could disrupt OFI’s build-up play. OFI themselves have been prone to giving away free kicks in dangerous areas, and a disciplined but physical CSKA midfield will look to exploit that.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | CSKA Sofia to score in both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
OFI Crete have had a difficult run heading into this tie. Their last three competitive outings were all defeats: 1-2 against Willem II, 2-3 against NAC Breda, and a heavy 0-4 loss to GA Eagles. None of those results inspire confidence. Before that Europa League qualifying run, OFI did manage a 3-1 win over Volos in domestic competition, but they followed it immediately with a 2-3 defeat to Levadiakos. The pattern is inconsistent, and the team has clearly struggled to find any defensive stability. Going into a European two-legged tie without a goal in three matches is a serious concern for Kontis.
CSKA Sofia arrive in far better shape. Their most recent outing was a dominant 5-0 win over Botev Vratsa, and before that they posted a 3-0 victory over Septemvri Sofia and a 3-0 win over Maccabi Tel Aviv. The only blemish in their last five games was a 1-3 loss to Maccabi Tel Aviv, which came between those two wins over the Israeli side, suggesting they adapted quickly. Six wins from their last nine matches overall, with just one defeat, paints the picture of a side that is well-drilled and confident under Hristo Yanev.
🚨Check out our dedicated OFI Crete vs CSKA Sofia stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Even Contest on Paper
- Moneyline OFI Crete 2.55 | CSKA Sofia 2.60
- Draw 3.20
The bookmakers have this as almost a coin flip, with both sides priced around 2.55 to 2.63. That feels generous for CSKA Sofia given the form disparity. OFI have not scored in three games, and CSKA have been scoring at will. The draw at 3.20 to 3.31 also looks fair given the two-legged nature of the tie, where a visiting side might show some caution. We lean toward the CSKA Sofia moneyline as the best value in the market, with the over 2.5 goals line worth considering given Sofia’s recent output.
Possible Starting Lineups
CSKA Sofia Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Fedor Lapoukhov
- DF: Facundo Rodriguez, Ángelo Martino, Andrey Yordanov, David Samuel Custódio Lima
- MF: Jean-Philippe Gbamin, Max Ebong, Bruno Jordão, Stefano Sensi, James Eto’o
- FW: Santiago Godoy
CSKA Sofia are likely to line up in their preferred 4-2-3-1 shape. Fedor Lapoukhov takes the gloves, having started both of the last two matches. The back four picks itself based on minutes played, with Facundo Rodriguez and David Samuel Custódio Lima being the most consistent full-backs. Jean-Philippe Gbamin and Max Ebong provide the defensive midfield screen, with Ebong also contributing a goal in recent games. Stefano Sensi operates in the advanced midfield role and is the key creative force, while Santiago Godoy leads the line. Sensi’s two yellow cards in two games are a booking risk worth monitoring.
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OFI Crete. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
CSKA Sofia are the pick here. Their form over the last 30 days, six wins from nine matches with a 67% win rate, stands in stark contrast to OFI’s three defeats from three. Sofia have scored nine goals across their last two matches alone, and their squad depth, reflected in a world club ranking of 156 compared to OFI’s 887, tells a clear story about the level gap between these two sides at this moment.
OFI will have the home crowd at the Theodoros Vardinogiannis Stadium, and that could matter in a tight first leg, to be honest. But without a goal in three games and facing a side this confident, it is hard to see Kontis’s men keeping a clean sheet or finding the net consistently. We predict a CSKA Sofia win, with goals coming from Sensi and Godoy in particular. The over 2.5 goals market is worth backing alongside the away win, and we also favour CSKA to score in both halves given their recent dominance.
