Liam Duckstein
Nijmegen host Japanese side V-Varen Nagasaki in a pre-season friendly on July 14, with the Dutch club carrying a difficult run of form into this fixture. Dick Schreuder’s side has gone winless across their last three matches, picking up a single draw and two defeats. That slump makes this a more competitive proposition than the odds suggest, even against a Nagasaki side ranked far lower on the global scale. Nagasaki, managed by Takuya Takagi, arrives with no recorded matches in the last 30 days, which adds a layer of uncertainty around their sharpness and squad condition heading into this one.
One player to monitor for Nijmegen is whoever steps up as the attacking threat given the team’s recent inability to convert chances. On the Nagasaki side, the forward who scored four times in their dramatic 5-4 win over Vissel Kobe will be worth watching closely, as that result showed the Japanese side can produce in high-tempo, open games.
A hot stat worth noting: V-Varen Nagasaki scored five goals in a single match against Vissel Kobe in their most recent run of games, showing they are not afraid to commit forward even against higher-ranked opposition.
| 🏆 Tournament: | International Club Friendly 2026, July Phase |
| 🗓️ Date: | 14.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 19:00 CEST |
Nijmegen vs V-Varen Nagasaki Prediction
Nijmegen enter this match as clear favourites with bookmakers pricing them at around 1.59 to 1.62, and the 57% win probability does reflect the gap in club standing between the two sides. The Dutch outfit has the home advantage and, despite poor recent form, should have enough quality to get the better of a Nagasaki team that has had no competitive action in the last 30 days.
We predict a Nijmegen win, but not a comfortable one. Their three-match winless streak, which included back-to-back losses to Anderlecht and Duisburg in the final two outings, points to a team still working through tactical shape and fitness levels in pre-season. Nagasaki’s ability to score goals freely, as shown by their 5-4 thriller and consecutive 1-0 wins over Mito, means they are unlikely to sit back and absorb pressure. This sets up a match where both teams find the net.
In terms of style, with no detailed per-match shot or foul data available from either side’s last five games, we look to the broader patterns from recent results. Nagasaki’s matches have tended to be open, high-energy affairs with multiple goals scored across their recent outings. Nijmegen have conceded in four of their last five matches, suggesting defensive fragility that Nagasaki could exploit. The total goals market looks appealing given this context.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Both Teams To Score – Yes |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Nijmegen’s pre-season has been far from convincing. They opened with a 2-1 win over GA Eagles and a 1-2 loss to Groningen, then drew 1-1 with De Treffers before dropping consecutive defeats to Duisburg (2-3) and Anderlecht (2-3). To be honest, the pattern is concerning. They are scoring goals but leaking them at the same rate or worse, and they have failed to win in their last three outings. The Anderlecht defeat in particular, their most recent match, came against a side ranked well below Nijmegen on the global scale, which is a red flag for Schreuder heading into this fixture. The team’s year-long win rate of 46% from 24 matches is decent, but the recent trajectory points downward.
V-Varen Nagasaki’s recent form tells a more varied story. Their last five matches produced two wins over Mito (both 1-0), a 5-4 victory over Vissel Kobe, a 0-1 defeat to Kyoto, and a 2-3 loss to Cerezo Osaka. That 5-4 result stands out as the clearest indicator of Nagasaki’s attacking intent, as they were willing to trade blows in an open game rather than sit defensively. The two narrow wins over Mito suggest they can also grind out results when needed. Their annual win rate of 45% from 20 matches is nearly identical to Nijmegen’s, which tells you something about the competitive balance between these two clubs despite the ranking difference.
🚨Check out our dedicated Nijmegen vs V-Varen Nagasaki stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Nijmegen the Favourite
- Moneyline Nijmegen 1.59–1.62 | V-Varen Nagasaki 4.40–4.50
- Draw 4.00–4.10
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The moneyline odds of around 1.60 for Nijmegen reflect a market that respects the Dutch side’s pedigree, but the price is arguably a touch short given their winless run and the fact Nagasaki have shown they can score goals against quality opposition. The draw at 4.00 is not without value given Nijmegen’s inconsistency, and the away price of 4.40 to 4.50 could appeal to those who believe the Japanese side’s attacking output will cause problems. We see the best value in backing goals in this match rather than chasing the outright winner market.
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Nijmegen. Source: Official Instagram. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Nijmegen to win this match, but the scoreline is unlikely to be clean. Their defensive record across the last five games, conceding in four of them including two 2-3 defeats, suggests Nagasaki will find at least one way through. The Japanese side’s 5-4 win over Vissel Kobe is the standout data point in this preview. It shows Takagi’s team is set up to attack and is not deterred by conceding, which is exactly the kind of opponent that can punish a Nijmegen side still finding its feet in pre-season.
Both teams to score looks like the strongest call here. A Nijmegen win with goals at both ends fits the pattern of recent matches for both clubs. Perhaps a 2-1 or 3-2 scoreline is the most realistic outcome, with Nijmegen securing the result but not without some defensive discomfort along the way.
