Newcastle vs Bournemouth Prediction: 10.01.2026 FA Cup 2025/26

As the FA Cup Round of 64 kicks into gear, Newcastle United welcome Bournemouth to St James’ Park. Both clubs will be eager to make a statement, but the context surrounding each side couldn’t be more different. Newcastle approach the tie with superior momentum and an impressive home record, while Bournemouth look to spring a surprise under Andoni Iraola’s stewardship. Notably, neither side has lost in the FA Cup this campaign—highlighting the competitive intrigue of this clash.

Among the many talents on display, Newcastle’s Bruno Guimarães has been a creative force from midfield, directly contributing to four goals in his last five appearances. For Bournemouth, Antoine Semenyo’s recent goal-scoring form stands out, having netted three times in his previous five outings. These two could have a decisive say in the outcome at St James’ Park.

The “hot stat” heading into this match: Bournemouth have accumulated 63 fouls in their last five matches, the highest among teams in this FA Cup round—a clear sign of their aggressive, combative approach.

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Newcastle vs Bournemouth Prediction

Newcastle come into the match as favorites, boasting a recent win rate of 50% over their last eight games, and they are yet to lose in 2026. The combination of home advantage, tactical discipline, and firepower up front puts the Magpies in a strong position. Bournemouth, on the other hand, have managed just one win in their last six matches and are struggling for consistency, particularly away from home. Bournemouth’s high foul and yellow card counts suggest they may take a physical approach, but this can also backfire with set-piece specialists on Newcastle’s side like Harvey Barnes.

Newcastle’s style of play emphasizes ball retention (2,494 passes at 84% accuracy in the last five games) and controlled aggression, making them resilient against disruptive tactics. Bournemouth’s 1,811 passes (77% accuracy), with a noticeably higher foul count, implies they often break up the flow but may also concede dangerous free kicks.

Expect Newcastle to control possession and exploit set-piece situations, while Bournemouth will likely look to disrupt play and counterattack. The predicted edge statistically and stylistically favors Newcastle for outright victory.

Team Analysis

Newcastle United have shown impressive offensive variety, scoring 11 goals in their last five outings. In their latest game, a 4-3 victory over Leeds, the Magpies demonstrated both attacking flair and a tendency to leave themselves open at the back, conceding three goals to a lower-ranked opponent. Their ability to grind out results (with four wins and two draws in their last eight), combined with strong home form, makes them tough to beat at St James’ Park.

Bournemouth finally broke a winless streak with a 3-2 win against Tottenham, a morale-boosting result after failing to win their previous five matches. However, their defense continues to leak goals (nine conceded in last five), and disciplinary issues (10 yellows, 63 fouls) have stifled their rhythm. Bournemouth’s balanced 4-2-3-1 system provides attacking opportunities for the likes of Semenyo and Evanilson, but inconsistency and lapses under pressure remain key challenges.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Newcastle vs Bournemouth stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Newcastle the favourite

• Moneyline Newcastle 1.73 | Bournemouth 4.30
• Draw 4.00
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.92 | Under 2.5 1.85
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.73 | No 2.10

The bookmakers assign Newcastle a substantial home-edge, pricing them between 1.70 and 1.77. This probability reflects Newcastle’s consistency and firepower, as well as Bournemouth’s underwhelming away form and tendency towards defensive breakdowns. The slim difference between “Over 2.5” and “Under 2.5” odds, plus favorable odds for “BTTS Yes,” further underline expectations of attacking football from both sides, but with Newcastle to edge it, potentially by more than one goal.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Newcastle possible starting eleven

Newcastle are likely to start in their familiar 4-2-3-1, prioritizing a blend of youth and experience. Ramsdale starts in goal, with Schär and Thiaw anchoring the backline, Hall and Murphy operating as fullbacks. Bruno Guimarães is the heartbeat in midfield, with Joelinton’s box-to-box drive and Miley’s composure allowing for fluid transitions. Anthony Gordon and Nick Woltemade lead the line, supported by Tonali and creative wide play from Barnes (as a super-sub). Bruno and Joelinton will be key to breaking Bournemouth’s lines and providing defensive cover.

Bournemouth possible starting eleven

Bournemouth are expected to mirror Newcastle’s 4-2-3-1 setup. Petrović remains the first-choice keeper, while Senesi marshals the backline alongside Hill, Smith, and Truffert. Cook and Scott provide stability in midfield, and Brooks and Tavernier inject necessary creativity. Antoine Semenyo’s direct running and Evanilson’s finishing are Bournemouth’s main attacking outlets. High energy and tactical discipline will be essential, but Bournemouth must cut down on their unwarranted fouls to avoid gifting Newcastle set-piece chances.

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My take on the Match

My main pick for this clash is Newcastle to win and cover a -1 Asian Handicap. The Magpies’ dominance in possession, proficiency in front of goal, and home support should see them comfortable favorites against a Bournemouth side whose high fouling rate and defensive inconsistencies could be their undoing. If Newcastle capitalize on set pieces and control the midfield battle through Guimarães and Joelinton, I expect them to secure a multi-goal margin. For bettors, combining the home win with “both teams to score” could offer extra value, given both teams’ recent attacking output and defensive vulnerabilities.

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