Mariehamn vs HJK Prediction: 23.06.2026 Veikkausliiga

This one is about as lopsided as Finnish top-flight football gets. Mariehamn sit rock-bottom of the Veikkausliiga table with just four points from eleven matches, still searching for their first win of the season. HJK, meanwhile, occupy fourth place and arrive in Mariehamn off the back of a 3-3 thriller against league leaders Inter Turku, a result that showed both their attacking punch and defensive fragility. The last meeting between these two sides at this very ground ended 1-0 to HJK, and there is little in the current data to suggest a different outcome this time around.

Alexander Ring is the man to watch in the HJK midfield. Three goals in the last five matches, eleven total shots, and a pass accuracy that holds up under pressure make him the engine of everything Joonas Rantanen’s side does going forward. For Mariehamn, Marlo Hyvonen is arguably the only player carrying any real attacking threat, the lone scorer across their last five league games, though one goal against a combined 10 conceded tells its own story.

Hot stat: HJK have scored 10 goals across their last five matches while Mariehamn have managed just 1. That is not a typo. The visiting attack has been ten times more productive, and Mariehamn’s defensive line has conceded in every single one of their last five games.

Mariehamn vs HJK prediction

The case for an HJK win is overwhelming. They have not lost in six matches, they beat Mariehamn 1-0 in the reverse fixture just weeks ago, and they hammered Honka 7-1 and MyPa 11-1 in recent outings. Mariehamn have zero wins in the last 30 days across five matches, and their goal tally of 1 in five games is the clearest possible indicator of how little they threaten going forward.

We think the HJK win at around 1.33 is the anchor bet here, but the more interesting angle is the total goals market. HJK have been scoring freely and Mariehamn’s backline is porous. The head-to-head history includes an 8-2 and an 11-1 scoreline in recent seasons, which tells you that when HJK are in form against this opponent, they do not hold back. Over 2.5 goals looks like the natural companion bet.

Mariehamn commit fouls at a high rate, 46 in five games to HJK’s 48, but with 16 yellow cards to HJK’s 8, the home side plays with considerably more desperation and edge. That aggression has not translated into results. HJK’s ball control, 1,739 accurate passes to Mariehamn’s 1,046, means they will likely suffocate the home side in possession and create chances in waves. Corners are another angle worth considering: HJK have earned 27 corners in five games, Mariehamn just 17, and the visiting team’s aerial and set-piece presence from Ville Tikkanen and Mads Borchers adds further weight to an over corners line.

Team Analysis

Mariehamn’s last five matches have been a procession of defeats. They lost to AC Oulu 1-2, fell 0-3 to Gnistan, were beaten 0-1 by HJK, lost 0-1 to Lahti, and conceded three more against Jaro in a 0-3 result. Five losses, zero wins, one goal scored, ten conceded. Coach Roberth Björknesjö has yet to find a combination that can generate consistent attacking output, and the 4-4-2 formation they have been running offers structural balance on paper but very little in practice when the midfield cannot retain the ball. Noah Nurmi picks up fouls at a worrying rate, 12 across four games, and the disciplinary record of the squad as a whole, 16 yellow cards in five matches, is a sign of a team under constant pressure rather than one imposing itself on games.

HJK’s form over the same period is a different world entirely. They drew 3-3 with Inter Turku in their most recent outing, a match where they came from behind and showed real resilience. Before that, they beat Jaro 5-2, demolished Honka 7-1, beat Mariehamn 1-0, and destroyed MyPa 11-1. That is 27 goals in five matches, which is frankly absurd for a league fixture schedule. Mads Borchers has four goals in that run, and Alexander Ring has added three more. Teemu Pukki, still a recognisable name at this level, has chipped in with two assists without yet finding the net himself, which maybe suggests his best is still to come. HJK’s passing structure is genuinely impressive at this level, 2,057 total passes with 1,739 accurate, and Lucas Lingman is the conductor of that with 295 passes and 255 accurate in four appearances.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Check out our dedicated Mariehamn vs HJK stats page for more info.

Pre-game odds and win probability: HJK the favourite

• Moneyline Mariehamn 7.65 | HJK 1.34
• Draw 5.25

Mariehamn at 7.65 reflects a team that has not won a single game this season. Honestly, even that price feels generous given the form gap. HJK at 1.34 is short but justified, the bookmakers’ implied probability of 70% for an HJK win actually feels conservative when you stack the recent data. The draw at 5.25 is not worth chasing. These two sides have not drawn in any of their recent meetings, and Mariehamn’s current form gives no reason to expect them to hold HJK level for ninety minutes.

Possible Starting Lineups

Mariehamn possible starting eleven

The 4-4-2 has been Mariehamn’s go-to shape and there is no real reason to expect Björknesjö to change it here. Kevin Lund gets the nod in goal with 17 saves across four appearances, the busiest goalkeeper in the squad by some distance. The back four picks itself based on appearances, with Yeboah Amankwah and Samson Ngulube the more experienced options. Marlo Hyvonen is the only player who has scored in this run, so watch him to be the focal point of whatever attacking play Mariehamn can muster. Luke Pearce, with one assist and seven total shots, is the most active forward option alongside him. The midfield block of Dahlström and Nurmi will be tasked with disrupting HJK’s rhythm, which is a tall order given the passing differential.

HJK possible starting eleven

HJK have been operating in a 5-3-2 across their recent matches but the personnel listed here reflects the most frequently appearing players. Matej Marković is the clear first-choice keeper with 10 saves in four games. The backline of Tikkanen and Ylitolva is worth noting because both have contributed goals from defensive positions, which adds an extra dimension to HJK’s set-piece threat. Lucas Lingman anchors the midfield with his passing volume, while Alexander Ring is the man who could easily end this game as a contest inside the first half. Mads Borchers up front has been lethal, four goals in five matches, and Teemu Pukki alongside him gives Joonas Rantanen a proper attacking partnership with experience and movement. We think this is a lineup capable of scoring two or three without too much difficulty.

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The Verdict

There is not much ambiguity here. Mariehamn are the worst team in the Veikkausliiga right now, winless all season, and they are hosting a side that has put 27 goals past opponents in their last five outings. The head-to-head record stretches back through a 2-8 defeat and an 0-4 loss in 2025, and the most recent meeting ended 0-1 to HJK with Mariehamn barely threatening.

We are backing HJK to win, and we think over 2.5 goals is the most sensible companion to that. HJK scoring in both halves at around 1.80-1.90 with most books is also worth a look given how one-sided the attacking output has been. Both teams to score lands as a no, because Mariehamn have scored just once in five games and HJK’s goalkeeper Marković has not been seriously tested in recent weeks. The corner market favors HJK heavily, and anything above 8.5 total corners looks well within range given their 27 corners across five games alone.

Honest assessment: this is a mismatch. Back HJK, take the goals, and do not overthink it.

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