Liam Duckstein
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Derby welcome West Brom to Pride Park sitting 20th in the Championship table, a spot that hardly matches how these two sides have fared against each other lately. West Brom arrive in 4th place with genuine promotion ambitions, yet Derby have actually won three of the last five head-to-head meetings without losing a single one. That quirk gives this fixture an edge that the league table alone doesn’t show.
John Eustace knows this division well and will lean on a settled defensive block, while James Morrison’s West Brom side has been the form team of August, winning four of their last seven outings. Perhaps the biggest question is whether Derby’s home comfort can outweigh a squad that has won only once in its last six games.
Watch Isaac Price for West Brom, he has scored four goals in his last five appearances and drives most of their attacking play through the middle third. On the other side, Bobby Clark has quietly produced a goal and two assists for Derby in the same span, and his 10 shots across five matches make him the home side’s most direct attacking outlet.
Hot stat: Isaac Price alone has scored four goals in his last five games for West Brom, almost matching Derby’s entire squad output of five goals over the identical stretch. That gap tells you plenty about where the goal threat sits heading into Saturday.
| 🏆 Tournament: | EFL Championship 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Pride Park Stadium, Derby |
| 🗓️ Date: | 09.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:45 CEST |
Derby vs West Brom prediction
We predict West Brom edge this one, and the numbers back that view up. Derby have won just once in their last six games and sit bottom-half with a negative goal difference of minus five. West Brom, in contrast, have four wins from seven, sit fourth, and carry a plus two goal difference into Pride Park. Their away form under Morrison has been consistent rather than spectacular, which is exactly the sort of profile that travels well against a struggling home side.
Style-wise, the contrast is stark. Derby have committed 75 fouls and picked up 15 yellow cards across their last five matches, against West Brom’s 49 fouls and 11 cards in the same period. That discipline gap suggests Derby might concede cheap free kicks in dangerous areas, and West Brom’s pass accuracy of roughly 87% compared to Derby’s 77% points to a visiting side far more comfortable controlling tempo. To be honest, if Derby cannot break up West Brom’s rhythm early, this could turn into a long night at Pride Park.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | West Brom to Win & BTTS Yes |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Derby’s recent run reads rough. They lost 0-3 at home to West Ham in their last outing, a scoreline that continued a stretch of one win in six. Before that they beat Portsmouth 2-0 but were thrashed 0-3 by Swansea and held 2-2 by Cardiff. The pattern is inconsistency, Derby can look sharp for one match and toothless the next, and conceding ten goals across five league fixtures highlights a defense that keeps getting exposed.
West Brom, meanwhile, closed out their last match with a tidy 1-0 win over a struggling Watford side, continuing a run where they’ve lost only two of their last seven. A 1-1 draw with Charlton and a 1-3 defeat to Middlesbrough show they aren’t unbeatable, but the underlying trend of eight goals scored in five games against Derby’s five tells its own story about which side carries more attacking threat into this fixture.
🚨Check out our dedicated Derby vs West Brom stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: West Brom the favourite
- Moneyline Derby 2.25 | West Brom 2.30
- Draw 3.90
Bookmakers give West Brom roughly 40% to win against Derby’s 33%, with the draw sitting around 28%. That gap makes sense given the table positions, but it’s tighter than the standings alone would suggest, which we put down to Derby’s home form at Pride Park and their surprisingly strong recent head-to-head record against this exact opponent.
Possible Starting Lineups
Derby possible starting eleven
- GK: Josh Vickers
- DF: Ryan Nyambe, Sondre Langas, Dion Sanderson, max johnston
- MF: Joe Ward, Bobby Clark, Oscar Fraulo, Alex Mowatt, Corey Blackett-Taylor
- FW: Rhian Brewster
Eustace should stick with the 4-2-3-1 that’s featured in each of Derby’s last five games. Bobby Clark gets the nod as the creative outlet behind Brewster, who leads the line on shot volume alone. Blackett-Taylor’s pace out wide gives Derby a genuine counter-attacking threat if West Brom push numbers forward.
West Brom possible starting eleven
- GK: Max O’Leary
- DF: Nolan Galves, George Campbell, Chris Mepham, Conor Townsend
- MF: Jayson Molumby, Ousmane Diakite, Isaac Price, Felix Horn Myhre, Rabby Nzingoula
- FW: J. Morgan
Morrison also favors a 4-2-3-1, and Price’s central role behind Morgan is the key attacking axis to watch. Molumby and Diakite anchoring midfield gives the platform for Price to keep producing the way he has all August.
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West Brom. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
We predict West Brom edge this contest, most likely by a 2-1 scoreline. Derby’s home crowd and their surprisingly good recent head-to-head record give them a puncher’s chance, but the current form gap is too wide to ignore. West Brom score more, control the ball better, and pick up fewer cards, three factors that usually decide games like this one. Our punters team leans toward West Brom to win with both sides scoring, backed by the sheer weight of Isaac Price’s recent output against a Derby defense that’s leaked ten goals in five league games.
