Alex MacQuoid
Two mid-table sides with nearly identical recent form meet at Mounthawk Park in Tralee on a Friday evening that could shift the standings in the lower half of the First Division 2026. Kerry sit eighth with 22 points from 20 games, Longford sixth with 25, and the gap between them is small enough that a single result here carries real weight for both camps. What makes this fixture genuinely interesting is that Longford have won the last head-to-head encounter between these sides, taking a 1-0 victory earlier in the same season, which means Colin Healy’s Kerry side are chasing a response on home soil. Both teams have won exactly 2 of their last 4 matches, drawn 1 and lost 1, so there is no meaningful form edge to speak of going into this one.
On the Kerry side, keep an eye on whoever occupies the central midfield pivot in their 4-3-3 setup. That position tends to dictate Kerry’s tempo, and against Longford’s compact 3-5-2, controlling the middle third will be the difference between creating chances and running into a wall. For Longford, the wide midfielders in their five-man band are the ones who stretch the pitch and set up their attacking play. Wayne Groves has built a side that transitions quickly, and those wide runners are where the danger comes from.
Hot stat: Longford have scored in 4 of their last 5 matches and taken points from sides ranked higher than them in the table, including a 2-1 win over Cobh Ramblers and a 3-1 result against Treaty United. They are not a team that rolls over, even on the road.
| 🏆 Tournament: | First Division 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Mounthawk Park, Tralee |
| 🗓️ Date: | 26.06.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:45 CEST |
Kerry vs Longford prediction
The bookmakers have Kerry as slight favourites at home, which makes sense given venue advantage, but the odds across most books sit around 2.15-2.25 for Kerry, and honestly that feels a touch generous for what is a genuinely 50/50 contest. Longford’s 3-5-2 is well-suited to neutralising the width that Kerry try to generate through their 4-3-3 wingers, and in their last meeting this season Longford already proved they can shut Kerry out and nick a goal. We think the draw is the most likely single outcome when two sides of this quality and form level meet, but the value bet is on Longford to take something from this match.
Kerry’s season-long winrate of just 25% at home and away combined is a concern. They have drawn 7 of their 20 league games, which tells you something about how they manage matches when they cannot break through early. Longford at 27% are marginally better and have that recent H2H edge. The 3-5-2 Longford deploy tends to produce compact, lower-scoring affairs, and Kerry’s 4-3-3 can struggle to create volume against organised defensive blocks. Both teams have conceded more than they have scored this season, which adds to the case for a tight match.
- Best value bet: Longford or Draw (Double Chance) – Longford have the recent H2H form, a structure that suits away matches, and odds that undervalue them slightly given the context.
- Under 2.5 Goals – Both sides rank in the bottom half for attacking output. Kerry have scored 19 goals in 20 games, Longford 20. Low-scoring seems likely.
- Draw at 3.20-3.39 – If you want a single outcome, the draw at Pinnacle’s 3.39 represents the sharpest value given how evenly matched these teams are.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Longford or Draw (Double Chance) |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Kerry’s last five results read: win over UC Dublin (1-0), win over Athlone (1-0), loss to Cobh Ramblers (0-2), draw with Bray (2-2), and a win over Wexford (2-1). There is a pattern there. When Kerry win, they tend to do it narrowly and against sides lower than them or in poor form. The 0-2 loss to Cobh Ramblers stands out because Cobh are 4th in the table and showed Kerry’s defensive structure can be picked apart by a more physical, organised side. That is relevant here because Longford, while not as high in the standings, have shown similar organisational discipline. Kerry’s 1-0 wins over UC Dublin and Athlone were both grinding performances, and Colin Healy will be hoping for more of the same at Mounthawk Park.
Longford’s recent run is a more dramatic read. They lost 2-5 to Bray in their last outing, which is a result that needs context. Bray sit third in the table with 31 points and have scored 39 goals this season, so conceding five to them is not the disaster it might appear. Before that, Longford beat Cobh Ramblers 2-1 and Treaty United 3-1, drew with Finn Harps 2-2, and lost 0-2 to Cork City, the runaway league leaders. The Bray result aside, Longford have been competitive against nearly everyone. Wayne Groves has his side set up to be hard to beat and dangerous on the counter, and the 3-5-2 gives them the numbers in midfield to control the tempo of matches they want to control.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
The head-to-head record between these two across the last three seasons is remarkably even. Kerry won 4 of the 8 meetings, Longford won 3, and 1 ended in a draw. The scorelines have been varied, from tight 1-0 results to open 2-3 and 3-1 affairs. There is no dominant pattern beyond the fact that neither side consistently controls these fixtures, which again points to the draw or a narrow one-goal result as the most likely outcome.
| Statistic | Kerry | Longford |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 11 | 11 |
| Total shots | 26 | 34 |
| Corner kicks | 14 | 8 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 84 | 86 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Kerry vs Longford stats page for more info.
Kerry. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Kerry the favourite
- Moneyline Kerry 2.25 | Longford 3.07
- Draw 3.39
- Over/Under Over 2.5 – | Under 2.5 –
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes – | No –
Pinnacle’s lines are the sharpest here and they have Kerry at 2.25, which implies roughly a 44% chance of a home win. The bookmaker average of 42% for Kerry aligns with that. Longford at 3.07 with Pinnacle is where we see the most value, given that the market average puts Longford at 31% but their recent H2H record and current form suggest something closer to 35-37% is more accurate. The draw at 3.39 with Pinnacle is also worth noting. Most books cluster around 3.15-3.30 for the draw, so getting 3.39 on a match this evenly contested is a price worth considering. We think the market is slightly overconfident in Kerry simply because they are at home.
Possible Starting Lineups
Kerry possible starting eleven
Kerry have been consistent with their 4-3-3 across recent matches, and Colin Healy is unlikely to change that at home. The shape gives them width through the wingers and allows the central midfielder to press high when Kerry have the ball. Against Longford’s 3-5-2, the wide forwards will need to track back and help deal with Longford’s wing-back runners, otherwise Kerry can be stretched in transition. The central midfield trio will be the key unit. Whoever controls the space between Longford’s midfield five and their defensive three will have a significant say in how this match plays out. Detailed player data was unavailable at time of writing, so specific names cannot be confirmed, but the structure should remain unchanged from recent outings.
Longford possible starting eleven
Wayne Groves has settled on 3-5-2 as his preferred setup, and it has served Longford reasonably well this season. The three-man defence holds its shape when the wing-backs push forward, and the midfield five gives them numerical superiority in the central areas that Kerry’s 4-3-3 wingers will struggle to exploit. The two strikers work as a compact unit, pressing high to disrupt Kerry’s build-up and holding the ball when Longford need to manage the game. The wing-backs are the most dangerous attacking outlet. If they can get forward with enough frequency, Longford can create overloads on the flanks that Kerry’s full-backs may not handle well. Again, player-level data was not available for this fixture, so specific names are to be confirmed closer to kick-off.
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Longford. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
This is a match between two teams that know each other well, have nearly identical form, and are separated by just three points in the table. Kerry have home advantage and the bookmakers favour them, but Longford’s 3-5-2 is built for exactly this kind of away fixture. They can sit in, absorb pressure, and hit on the counter. The last meeting between these sides ended 1-0 to Longford, and there is no obvious reason to think Kerry have fixed whatever defensive vulnerability allowed that result to happen.
We think the most likely outcome is a draw or a narrow Longford win. The Longford or Draw double chance is our primary recommendation. For those who want a single market, Under 2.5 goals makes sense given both teams’ low attacking output across the season. Both teams to score is also a reasonable call. Kerry have conceded in most of their matches and Longford have scored in 4 of their last 5, so BTTS yes at a decent price has genuine logic behind it. Honestly, this is not a match where you chase a big scoreline. It is a tight, scrappy affair between two sides fighting to stay relevant in the second half of the season, and the betting should reflect that.
