Levi Rothermund
Japan hosts Iceland at the New National Stadium in what looks like a one-sided International Friendly, at least on paper. While friendlies often see experimental squads, this clash features two teams with sharply contrasting form: Japan are unbeaten this year, while Iceland are searching for their first win in 2026. The match gives both coaches, Hajime Moriyasu and Arnar Gunnlaugsson, a chance to tinker ahead of tougher summer fixtures. Most eyes will be on Japan’s attacking options, but Iceland’s resilience could be worth watching too. One interesting inside: Japan’s defensive record—zero goals conceded in 2026—could shape the match’s tempo. For Japan, midfielder Takefusa Kubo stands out as the creative heartbeat, while for Iceland, forward Sveinn Aron Guðjohnsen could offer their most likely threat.
Hot stat: Japan have not conceded a single goal in their last two matches, winning both 1-0 against England and Scotland.
| 🏆 Tournament: | International Friendly 2026 – May Phase |
| 🏟 Venue: | New National Stadium |
| 🗓️ Date: | 31.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 12:25 CEST |
Japan vs Iceland prediction
We think Japan to win is the best value pick. The team is in strong shape, having won both of their games this year without conceding. The bookmakers give Japan a 76% chance to win, and the squad’s recent discipline—no yellow or red cards in their last outings—points toward a composed, efficient performance. Iceland, on the other hand, are winless in their last three and conceded six in that run. The difference in ball progression and pressing intensity is clear; Japan’s precise passing and high tempo contrast Iceland’s more direct approach. Both teams have low foul counts and no recent cards, so don’t expect a stop-start game. The style of play likely tips the match in Japan’s favor.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Japan to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Japan’s last match saw them edge England 1-0, thanks to disciplined defending and opportunistic attacking. They limited England’s chances and kept possession well, demonstrating their ability to control games even against technically proficient opposition. Before that, Japan also beat Scotland 1-0, again showing a knack for taking their chances and shutting up shop when needed.
Iceland, meanwhile, drew 1-1 with Haiti in their last outing. They showed more fight than in previous fixtures, but defensive lapses persisted. Earlier, they drew 2-2 with Canada and suffered a heavy 0-4 loss to Mexico. Iceland’s defense often leaves gaps, and their attack relies on moments of individual quality rather than fluid team play.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Japan | Iceland |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Total shots | 0 | 0 |
| Free kicks | 0 | 0 |
| Corner kicks | 0 | 0 |
| Total fouls | 0 | 0 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 0 | 0 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Japan vs Iceland stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Japan the favourite
- Moneyline Japan 1.15 | Iceland 17.00
- Draw 7.80
- Over/Under Over 2.5 2.05 | Under 2.5 1.70
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.80 | No 1.44
Japan are the overwhelming favorites, priced as short as 1.15 with some bookmakers. The draw offers huge value at 7.80, and Iceland’s win would be a real shock at 17.00. Over 2.5 goals is only slightly favored over the under, but Japan’s defensive record and Iceland’s struggles up front make under 2.5 and BTTS “No” more plausible outcomes. The market reflects the gulf in class and form between these teams.
Iceland. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Japan possible starting eleven
- GK: Shuichi Gonda
- DF: Takehiro Tomiyasu, Hiroki Sakai, Ko Itakura, Yuto Nagatomo
- MF: Wataru Endo, Hidemasa Morita, Takefusa Kubo, Junya Ito
- FW: Takuma Asano, Ayase Ueda
This lineup uses a 4-2-3-1 formation. Gonda’s safe hands in goal, Tomiyasu’s versatility at the back, and Kubo’s creativity in midfield provide balance. Ito and Asano stretch defenses with pace. Ueda leads the line as a poacher, while Morita supports in transitions. Kubo is the clear player to watch here—his vision and movement have been key in Japan’s recent wins.
Iceland possible starting eleven
- GK: Hannes Þór Halldórsson
- DF: Birkir Már Sævarsson, Sverrir Ingi Ingason, Hjörtur Hermannsson, Ari Freyr Skúlason
- MF: Arnór Ingvi Traustason, Birkir Bjarnason, Hákon Arnar Haraldsson, Jón Dagur Þorsteinsson
- FW: Sveinn Aron Guðjohnsen, Andri Guðjohnsen
Iceland often set up in a 4-4-2, relying on a solid block and direct transitions. Halldórsson’s experience in goal anchors the backline. The Guðjohnsen brothers lead the line, both capable of scoring from limited chances. Bjarnason’s work rate in midfield could be vital to break up Japanese passing. Traustason’s wide play might give Iceland their best attacking outlet. Honest assessment—this group has talent, but struggles to keep shape under sustained pressure.
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Japan. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Japan look set to dominate this encounter. Their recent results, tight defense, and home advantage weigh heavily. Iceland’s attack is blunt and their defense brittle, as recent matches show. We think Japan to win to nil is the standout bet, with low total goals likely and a good chance Iceland won’t find the net. Don’t expect fireworks, but Japan’s control and quality should shine through.
