Hull vs Blackburn Prediction: 11.01.2026 FA Cup 2025/26 Preview

As the FA Cup Round of 64 beckons, Hull City prepares to welcome Blackburn Rovers to the MKM Stadium for a contest that promises grit and intricate tactical exchanges. Hull glean confidence from a superior win rate and home advantage, but will familiarity with their northern rivals count when it matters most? Both squads are in search of a morale-boosting cup run which could define their season, and underlying this matchup is the intriguing subplot — Blackburn have come away unscathed in recent direct encounters, suggesting that past form may yet play its part.

For Hull, striker Oliver McBurnie — with two goals in the last five matches — stands out as a constant aerial and pressing threat, while Matt Crooks’ box-to-box engine in midfield gives Hull some much-needed transitional bite. On Blackburn’s side, Moussa Baradji’s surging runs from midfield and Yuki Ohashi’s relentless work rate up top will be critical, especially in moments when possession shifts quickly.

The “hot stat” worth your attention? Blackburn have not beaten Hull in the FA Cup across the previous decade, but they’ve claimed back-to-back victories against them in the Championship, reflecting tactical superiority in recent high-stakes fixtures.

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Hull vs Blackburn prediction

The most compelling value in this FA Cup duel lies in backing Hull to prevail outright or on a Draw No Bet basis. Hull boast the clear advantage in form, having won four of their last seven matches (57% win rate) and suffering just two defeats. Blackburn, in stark contrast, have stuttered to just one win in their last seven outings — winless in the new year and hamstrung by a tendency to let matches drift to unremarkable draws.

In terms of playing styles, Hull operate predominantly with a 3-4-1-2 shape, leveraging their wingbacks for width and overlapping attacks, but can be prone to conceding on the counter if their midfield duo loses touch. Their recent stats underline a combative approach — 57 fouls and 18 yellow cards across five matches, evidence of a side not shy to disrupt play but also susceptible to disciplinary lapses. Their ball share isn’t reflected by classic dominance, but a 74% average pass accuracy keeps their possession game ticking over.

Blackburn’s 4-2-3-1 system puts faith in midfield overloads and pressing, but it’s been a struggle to convert territorial control (67 shots in five games) into meaningful goals. Baradji and Ohashi, while industrious, haven’t had enough support in the final third. Blackburn’s yellow card count (13 in five matches) and 52 fouls reflect a slightly more measured approach defensively, but with less attacking punch as proven by only four goals scored lately.

Team Analysis

Hull City’s recent games have proven to be a showcase of resilience and prudent defending, with clean sheet victories against Middlesbrough (1-0) and West Brom (1-0) punctuated by a sole slip-up to Stoke City (0-1). Their 2-2 draw with Sheffield Wednesday shows they have the tools for attack, but also a penchant for defensive lapses when pressed. The most recent defeat to Stoke was a tactical setback, but not for want of endeavour — Hull led the shot count and possession before being caught late, suggesting a need for sharper finishing up front and even greater concentration at the back.

Blackburn’s recent performances tell the tale of a side toiling for consistency. After a bright 2-0 win at Millwall, they’ve followed up with a series of disappointing stalemates and a blunt 0-2 loss at home to Wrexham. The 2-2 draw against Charlton hints at attacking improvement, but the side’s conversion rate struggles have become a recurring theme. There’s talent in Baradji and Ohashi, but the end product has deserted them at critical junctures; their lack of away victories in this current run is a red flag ahead of a visit to a battle-hardened Hull.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Hull vs Blackburn stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Hull the favourite

• Moneyline Hull 2.24 | Blackburn 3.00
• Draw 3.50
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.10 | Under 2.5 1.70
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.01 | No 1.84

Given the odds, bookies rate Hull as slight favourites — and rightly so. Their home form, strong defensive line, and higher win rate make them likelier winners. The relatively low Under 2.5 and No on BTTS also tally with both sides’ recent struggles to produce high-scoring games. If you’re after value, Hull Draw No Bet delivers the most insurance, as Blackburn haven’t shown enough on the road to warrant trust.

You can find all our predictions for today’s games on our football betting tips page.

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Possible Starting Lineups

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My take on the Match

Given Hull’s reliable home form, tactical clarity, and sharper edge in recent fixtures, it’s sensible to back them for progression in a closely contested cup tie. We favour Hull Draw No Bet as the main pick, matching their robust midfield dynamic and attacking intent against a Blackburn side still seeking answers up front. Expect a match shaped by fine margins and moments of individual genius, but Hull’s resilience should see them through, keeping dreams of a deeper FA Cup run alive.

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