Liam Duckstein
HJK host KuPs at the Helsinki Football Stadium on June 27 in what is shaping up to be one of the more meaningful fixtures of the Veikkausliiga regular season. With KuPs sitting second and HJK fourth, just five points separate the two sides, making this a direct battle for positioning in the top tier of Finnish football. The interesting angle here is KuPs’ remarkable away record this season: they have not lost in their last six matches, going 3W-3D, while HJK’s home form has been strong but not impenetrable.
Mads Borchers leads HJK’s attacking line with five goals in the last five matches and is the most dangerous player on the pitch. For KuPs, Jaime Moreno has been equally productive with three goals and a persistent pressing presence that will test HJK’s backline from the first whistle.
Hot stat: HJK scored 13 goals across their last five matches, including a 7-1 demolition of Honka and a 5-2 win over Jaro, averaging 2.6 goals per game. Their attack is in genuinely sharp form right now.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Veikkausliiga 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Helsinki Football Stadium, Helsinki |
| 🗓️ Date: | 27.06.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 16:00 CEST |
HJK vs KuPs Prediction
The head-to-head record tells a story that the bookmakers seem to partially ignore. KuPs have won four of the last five Veikkausliiga meetings between these two sides, including two 0-3 wins and a 0-2 win in 2025. HJK’s only league win in recent memory came back in June 2024. The 1-1 draw earlier this season in April 2026 was the closest HJK came to a positive result, and even then the bookmakers had them as slight favorites.
We predict a KuPs win or draw as the most defensible outcome. KuPs have not lost in six matches, their squad is well-organized under Miika Nuutinen, and their historical dominance over HJK in this fixture gives them a real edge. HJK have the firepower at home, but their recent 3-3 draw with Inter Turku shows they can be exposed defensively when pressed.
Both teams commit a similar volume of fouls, with HJK at 48 and KuPs at 47 across the last five games, and both carry eight or fewer yellow cards. This is not a particularly dirty match-up. KuPs average fewer interceptions (22 vs. HJK’s 30), which suggests they defend deeper and rely more on shape than pressing. HJK’s 84% pass accuracy edge over KuPs’ 85% is negligible, but HJK do generate more corners (27 vs. 22), which reflects their tendency to push wide and force the issue. That corner volume matters for our tips below.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | KuPs Double Chance (Draw or KuPs Win) |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
HJK arrive into this match on the back of a five-win run in their last six outings, their only blemish being a 3-3 draw with league leaders Inter Turku. That result, despite being at home, underlined a defensive fragility that KuPs could look to exploit. Before that, HJK put seven past Honka and five past Jaro, so the goals are clearly flowing through Borchers, Alexander Ring, and Teemu Pukki. Pukki may not be scoring as frequently now, but his three assists in the last five games confirm he is still pulling strings in the final third.
KuPs come in with a steady but unspectacular run of form. Their most recent result was a 4-3 win over Ilves, a match that showed both their attacking quality and defensive vulnerability on the day. Before that, they beat TPS Turku 2-1 and drew twice with VPS. Across six matches in the last 30 days, they have not lost once. Jaime Moreno’s three goals, combined with Gustav Engvall’s contribution of one goal and one assist, gives them a two-pronged forward threat. Valentin Gasc, despite picking up two yellow cards, has been their most creative midfielder with a goal and consistent involvement in build-up play.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | HJK | KuPs |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 7 | 11 |
| Total shots | 66 | 59 |
| Free kicks | 45 | 50 |
| Corner kicks | 27 | 22 |
| Total fouls | 48 | 47 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 84% | 85% |
| Interceptions | 30 | 22 |
| Offsides | 10 | 4 |
🚨Check out our dedicated HJK vs KuPs stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: KuPs the Favourite by History
- Moneyline HJK 2.19 (avg) | KuPs 2.81 (avg)
- Draw 3.50 (avg)
- Over/Under Over 2.5 ~1.80 | Under 2.5 ~2.00
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes ~1.75 | No ~2.05
The bookmakers give HJK a 42% win probability at home, which is fair given their recent domestic form. KuPs at around 2.81 represent genuine value when you factor in their head-to-head dominance and unbeaten run. The draw at 3.50 is also worth considering given the earlier 1-1 this season. Over 2.5 goals looks attractive at around 1.80, backed by both teams’ recent scoring numbers, and BTTS Yes is sensible given KuPs have scored in four of their last five matches.
Possible Starting Lineups
HJK Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Matej Marković
- DF: Ville Tikkanen, Miska Ylitolva, Till Cissokho, Emil Leveälahti
- MF: Lucas Lingman, Alexander Ring, Leonel Montano, Jere Kallinen
- FW: Mads Borchers, Teemu Pukki
HJK are likely to line up in their familiar 4-2-3-1 shape under Joonas Rantanen. Matej Marković starts ahead of Jesse Öst based on more recent appearances in high-stakes matches. Ville Tikkanen and Miska Ylitolva anchor the defensive line, with Lingman and Ring providing the double pivot. Borchers is the standout name to watch with five goals in five matches, and Pukki’s playmaking from a deeper forward role adds a layer of unpredictability. Montano’s eight fouls in five games show he is physically involved in every match, which will be important against KuPs’ mobile midfield.
KuPs Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Johannes Kreidl
- DF: Clinton Antwi, Arttu Lötjönen, Bob Nii Armah, Taneli Hämäläinen
- MF: Petteri Pennanen, Valentin Gasc, Otto Ruoppi, Akseli Puukko
- FW: Gustav Engvall, Jaime Moreno
KuPs set up in a 4-2-3-1 as well, with Johannes Kreidl in goal after four consistent appearances. Bob Nii Armah is worth watching closely from right back, having scored once and registered 12 total shots across five matches, an unusually high number for a defender. Jaime Moreno leads the line with three goals and 12 shots, making him the primary threat. Petteri Pennanen anchors the midfield with 242 passes and solid defensive work. Gasc’s creativity from midfield, despite his card risk, makes him central to how KuPs build their attacks.
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KuPs. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
To be honest, the numbers here point in a fairly clear direction. KuPs have beaten HJK in four of their last five Veikkausliiga meetings, and they arrive unbeaten in six. HJK’s home firepower is real, with 13 goals in five matches, but their backline gave up three against Inter Turku at home and KuPs carry more than enough attacking punch to trouble them again.
We predict both teams to score, with the match total going over 2.5 goals. The KuPs Double Chance market offers the best value overall. HJK’s corner count suggests they will push hard in wide areas, so over 8.5 corners is a solid add. The BTTS Yes market at around 1.75 is perhaps the cleanest single bet on the card given how both sides have performed in front of goal recently.
