Levi Rothermund
Two Dutch clubs meet in Bergen, Norway, in what looks like a routine pre-season tune-up, but this fixture carries a bit more intrigue than the setting suggests. Heerenveen, under Robin Veldman, come in as clear favorites despite having no competitive action in the last 30 days. De Graafschap, coached by Marinus Dijkhuizen, actually enter with more recent match sharpness, having played and won their last friendly against Utrecht just days ago. That difference in match rhythm could matter more than the bookmakers’ odds imply.
Watch Heerenveen’s attacking output closely once they build into match fitness. Their season form shows nine wins from 20 games, and their recent run includes seven wins from the last ten. On the De Graafschap side, their ability to press and disrupt higher-ranked opposition showed against Utrecht, where they won 2-1 despite facing a team ranked far above them. That win, combined with their general resilience this year, makes them a side worth respecting.
Hot stat: De Graafschap beat Utrecht 2-1 in their most recent match on July 3, 2026 — the same Utrecht side that defeated Heerenveen 3-2 just weeks earlier. That result alone puts De Graafschap’s chances in better perspective than a 21% win probability suggests.
| 🏆 Tournament: | International Club Friendly 2026 — July Phase |
| 🏟 Venue: | Brann Stadion, Bergen |
| 🗓️ Date: | 03.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 19:00 CEST |
Heerenveen vs De Graafschap Prediction
Heerenveen are the stronger club on paper, and the odds at around 1.59 reflect that fairly. Their form across the year has been decent, and they generally perform well against lower-ranked Dutch opposition. We think a Heerenveen win is the most likely outcome, but the margin is the real question here.
De Graafschap just beat Utrecht — who beat Heerenveen — so the form argument is not as one-sided as the pre-match probabilities suggest. Still, Heerenveen have the squad quality to control this match once they settle into it. Pre-season conditions also flatten the gap between Eredivisie and Eerste Divisie sides, which means De Graafschap can absolutely cause problems.
Given the pre-season context, both teams are likely to rotate heavily and experiment with shape. Goals tend to come in these fixtures as defensive organization is still being built. We think over 2.5 goals is a reasonable lean, and both teams scoring is plausible given De Graafschap’s recent sharpness and Heerenveen’s tendency to push forward even when not at full fitness.
De Graafschap’s recent match showed they are comfortable playing on the front foot. Dijkhuizen’s teams historically press well and commit numbers forward, which creates space on the counter. Heerenveen’s style under Veldman tends toward possession-based buildup, which can invite pressure from a well-organized lower-league side. Fouls and set pieces will likely play a role in how goals come, especially in the first half when both sides are still finding their rhythm.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | De Graafschap to score first |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Heerenveen’s last five competitive results paint a picture of a team with genuine quality but inconsistency at the back. They beat Volendam 2-0 and Fortuna Sittard 2-1, showing they can grind out results. A goalless draw against Ajax is respectable, but the 3-2 loss to Utrecht and 2-0 defeat to NAC Breda show they are not immune to being undone by pressing sides. Those losses came against teams ranked much higher, but the pattern — conceding multiple goals in defeat — is worth noting. They arrive into this friendly having not played in over 30 days, so match sharpness will be a factor from the first whistle.
De Graafschap come in with more recent minutes in their legs. Their last five matches include a 3-1 win over Cambuur, a narrow 1-3 loss to Almere City, a 2-2 draw in the reverse fixture against Almere City, a 0-1 defeat to Emmen, and most recently a 2-1 win over Utrecht. That Utrecht result is the standout. It was their most recent match and came against a side ranked inside the top 200 globally. The win shows the squad is functioning well tactically and has goal-scoring ability from multiple areas. The loss to Emmen is the only blip that raises questions about consistency, but the overall trajectory heading into this friendly is positive.
🚨Check out our dedicated Heerenveen vs De Graafschap stats page for more info.
De Graafschap. Source: Official Website
Pre-game odds and win probability: Heerenveen the favourite
- Moneyline Heerenveen 1.59 | De Graafschap 4.27
- Draw 4.23
- Over/Under Over 2.5 — | Under 2.5 —
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — | No —
Heerenveen at 1.59 is fair value for a side of their caliber, but it is not generous. The draw and De Graafschap win both sit around 4.20-4.30, which honestly feels a touch high given how De Graafschap have performed recently. The market is pricing this mostly on club pedigree rather than current form, and that creates a small edge on De Graafschap or the draw if you want to go against the grain. We would not chase Heerenveen at 1.59 in a pre-season context where fitness gaps are unpredictable.
Possible Starting Lineups
Heerenveen possible starting eleven
- GK: Andries Noppert
- DF: Pawel Bochniewicz, Ivan Stojiljkovic, Sherel Floranus, Thom Haye
- MF: Sydney van Hooijdonk, Sondre Tronstad, Mats Köhlert, Joey Veerman
- FW: Sem Steijn, Amin Sarr
With no detailed lineup data available from the last five matches, this lineup is built on Heerenveen’s known squad depth and typical 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 shape under Veldman. Sem Steijn is the player to watch — he has the creativity to unlock a compact De Graafschap block. Amin Sarr’s pace on the shoulder of defenders will also be a threat if Heerenveen can get the ball forward quickly. Veldman will likely rotate, so expect some unfamiliar names in the second half.
De Graafschap possible starting eleven
- GK: Hidde Jurjus
- DF: Sven Nieuwpoort, Thomas Verheydt, Daryl van Mieghem, Elmo Lieftink
- MF: Jonas Afonso, Ralf Seuntjens, Daan Huisman, Gianni Zuiverloon
- FW: Julius Bliek, Daan Rots
De Graafschap typically line up in a 4-4-2 or 4-3-3 depending on the opposition. Dijkhuizen likes his teams to press high and transition quickly, and that showed in the Utrecht win. Ralf Seuntjens is the focal point in attack — experienced, physical, and capable of scoring in tight spaces. Daan Rots provides width and directness that will test Heerenveen’s full-backs early. The defensive unit looked organized against Utrecht and will need to be again here.
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Heerenveen. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
Heerenveen should win this, and we do lean that way. Their squad quality is meaningfully higher, and even in pre-season conditions, that tends to show up over 90 minutes. The concern is match sharpness — they have not played in over a month, while De Graafschap arrive having just beaten Utrecht days ago.
We think the most likely scenario is a Heerenveen win by a single goal, with De Graafschap getting on the scoresheet at some point. A 2-1 scoreline in favor of Heerenveen feels right. The over 2.5 goals market and both teams to score are both worth considering given De Graafschap’s recent form and Heerenveen’s tendency to concede when not fully organized at the back. Maybe the biggest value play here is simply backing goals rather than a specific winner.
