Liam Duckstein
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Hapoel Beer Sheva host Sabah Baku at the Toto Turner Stadium in Beersheba in the UEFA Champions League 2026/27 Playoffs. The Israeli side enters as the slight bookmaker favourite, but Sabah Baku arrives in considerably sharper form, having won four of their last five matches. With both clubs still chasing a place in the group stage, the stakes could not be higher for this first-leg encounter.
Two players stand out ahead of this tie. Veljko Simic has been Sabah Baku’s most dangerous attacker, scoring four goals across the last five matches and looking sharp in every outing. For Hapoel Beer Sheva, Zahi Ahmed has been reliable in front of goal with two goals in recent fixtures, and his movement up front will be key to testing Sabah’s defence.
A hot stat worth noting: Sabah Baku have attempted 76 total shots across their last five games compared to just 39 for Hapoel Beer Sheva. That difference in attacking output is striking and suggests Sabah will look to dominate possession and create volume in the final third.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Champions League 2026/27, Playoffs |
| 🏟 Venue: | Toto Turner Stadium, Beersheba |
| 🗓️ Date: | 19.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Sabah Baku Prediction
Sabah Baku’s form is the defining factor here. They have won four of their last five matches, with an 80% win rate over the past 30 days compared to Hapoel Beer Sheva’s 60%. Their attacking numbers are significantly higher, and they have shown the ability to put multiple goals past opponents, including a 4-0 win over AGF Aarhus in their most recent European outing.
Hapoel Beer Sheva did manage back-to-back wins over Crvena Zvezda (2-0 and 1-0) and picked up a 2-0 result against Vikingur Reykjavik, but their heavy 0-4 defeat to Hapoel Haifa most recently raises questions about their defensive solidity at a higher level. Playing at home will help, and their 4-3-3 setup gives them enough width to cause problems, but Sabah’s cohesion and shot volume is a real concern for the hosts.
We predict Sabah Baku to win or the match to finish level. The value lies with Sabah on the double chance (X2). Hapoel Beer Sheva lack the defensive consistency to shut out a team as attack-minded as Sabah, and the visitors’ ability to control the ball and press high makes them dangerous even away from home.
Hapoel Beer Sheva’s stats show just one red card across five matches but 11 yellow cards, suggesting a physical approach in midfield. Sabah Baku, with only four yellow cards in five games, are a more disciplined side. Their 22 fouls across five matches are also relatively controlled. Sabah’s 687% pass accuracy (across 811 passes) points to a team that moves the ball with purpose, and that quality in possession should help them dictate the tempo in Beersheba.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Sabah Baku to score in both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Hapoel Beer Sheva’s recent run has been inconsistent. They beat Crvena Zvezda twice (2-0 and 1-0) and defeated Vikingur Reykjavik 2-0 in a key qualifier, but they also lost to Vikingur 1-2 and were then beaten heavily 0-4 by Hapoel Haifa. That last result, just days before this Champions League playoff tie, is a real concern. Conceding four goals at home to a domestic rival is not the preparation any coach wants going into a high-pressure European match.
Sabah Baku have been building momentum. They beat KuPs twice (2-0 and 1-0), then split their two-legged tie with AGF Aarhus with a 1-2 loss followed by a commanding 4-0 win. Their most recent match, a 2-0 home win over Kapaz, kept the momentum going. Coach Valdas Dambrauskas has his squad in a good rhythm, and the consistency in results speaks for itself. Four wins from five is the kind of form that travels well.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
These two sides have not met before this playoff tie, so there is no historical head-to-head data to draw from. The first leg on 19 August 2026 will set the tone for the entire tie.
🚨Check out our dedicated Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Sabah Baku stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Hapoel Beer Sheva the Favourite
- Moneyline Hapoel Beer Sheva 2.20 | Sabah Baku 3.00
- Draw 3.10
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The bookmakers make Hapoel Beer Sheva slight favourites on home advantage, but the odds around Sabah Baku at 3.00 to 3.15 represent genuine value given their superior recent form and attacking output. The draw at around 3.25 to 3.42 is also worth considering for a first leg where both sides may be cautious in the opening stages. To be honest, the market feels like it is overweighting home advantage here. Sabah’s quality over the past month makes them the better team on current form, and anything above 3.00 for an away win is worth looking at.
Possible Starting Lineups
Hapoel Beer Sheva Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Ofir Marciano
- DF: Miguel Vitor, Itay Rotman, Guy Mizrahi, Djibril Diop
- MF: Lucas de Souza Ventura, Eilel Peretz, Niv Yehoshua
- FW: Igor Zlatanovic, Zahi Ahmed, Amir Chaim Ganah
Ran Kozuch is likely to line up in a 4-3-3 formation, consistent with all five recent matches. Ofir Marciano is the clear first-choice goalkeeper based on appearances. Itay Rotman has picked up two yellow cards recently and is a booking risk in midfield. Zahi Ahmed and Igor Zlatanovic are the primary goal threats, combining for three goals across the last five games. Lucas de Souza Ventura has been a reliable presence in the engine room, playing the full 90 minutes in four consecutive matches.
Sabah Baku Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Stas Pokatilov
- DF: Steve Solvet, Akim Zedadka, Tymoteusz Puchacz, Diogo Almeida
- MF: Ivan Lepinjica, Umarali Rakhmonaliev, Aleksey Isaev
- FW: Joy Lance Mickels, Veljko Simic, Kaheem Parris
Valdas Dambrauskas should deploy a 4-3-3 as well, matching the shape used in all five recent matches. Stas Pokatilov is the starting goalkeeper, having made six saves across four appearances. Veljko Simic is the standout name up front with four goals in four games. Joy Lance Mickels adds creativity and work rate alongside him, contributing two goals and an assist. Tymoteusz Puchacz offers width and an attacking threat from left back, and his 41 lost balls suggest he is active and aggressive in his role. Xander Severina, who scored and assisted off the bench, could also feature if Dambrauskas opts to rotate.
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Sabah Baku. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
Sabah Baku enter this match as the better team on current form, and the stats back that up at every level. Their shot volume, pass accuracy, discipline, and goal output all exceed what Hapoel Beer Sheva have produced recently. The Israeli side will benefit from a home crowd and the pressure that brings, but their 0-4 collapse against Hapoel Haifa right before this tie is a warning sign that their defensive structure can be broken.
We predict Sabah Baku to win this match. Veljko Simic is in the kind of form that can decide European playoff ties on his own, and the Azerbaijani side’s ability to control games through possession gives them a platform to be effective even on the road. A narrow Sabah Baku win or a score draw both feel like realistic outcomes, but the value is firmly with the visitors.
