Goias vs Paysandu Pa Prediction: 20.09.2025 Campeonato Brasileiro Série B

As we approach the latter stages of the Campeonato Brasileiro Série B 2025 regular season, Goias hosts Paysandu Pa at Estádio da Serrinha—both teams seeking vital points for very different ambitions. Goias are entrenched in the promotion race and currently sit in second, while Paysandu Pa are fighting to escape relegation after a rough spell of results. With passionate home support and a notable gap in recent form, this encounter offers a fascinating tactical contest as Paysandu Pa look to upset the odds.

Among the standout figures for Goias, well-traveled striker Welliton Silva brings directness and goal threat to Mancini’s favored 4-3-3, with teammates like Anselmo Ramon adding crucial physicality up front. For Paysandu Pa, the versatile Maurício Garcez has led the line with energy, and experienced midfielder Anderson Leite brings much-needed balance with his dual roles in midfield.

A “hot stat” to watch: In the last five matches, Goias have converted 28 corners into 4 goals, highlighting their set-piece efficiency at home—a detail that could tip the balance in a tightly contested fixture.

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Goias vs Paysandu Pa prediction

Given the recent form chart and team dynamics, the best value prediction is a home win for Goias. Vagner Mancini’s side have shown the ability to bounce back from setbacks and are formidable at Estádio da Serrinha, boasting quality both in possession phases and when pressing high. Paysandu Pa, by contrast, have struggled to find attacking rhythm—scoring just twice in their last five, and conceding regularly across multiple phases.

Tactically, Goias possess a higher average ball possession and passing accuracy (77 percent in the last five fixtures) and generated 50 shots in the same span, compared to Paysandu Pa’s 66 but with much lower conversion. Fouls are relatively high for Goias (61 in five matches, with 10 yellows), suggesting an aggressive pressing game that can disrupt Paysandu’s attempts to gain midfield control. Paysandu Pa, while not overly physical, have only just managed a 0-0 draw in their most recent outing, and their low pass completion rate underlines their struggles under pressure. Expect Goias to dominate both territory and chances, with Paysandu’s best hope possibly coming from counter-attacks or a set-piece.

Team Analysis

Goias Recent Matches: Goias come into this clash on a modest run, with one win, one draw, and three defeats in their last five. Their latest outing saw them battle to a tactical 0-0 draw with leaders Coritiba, displaying defensive discipline but lacking a finishing touch. The preceding loss to Avai (1-2) revealed some cracks in transition defense, but Goias have generally shown resilience, highlighted by a crucial 1-0 win over America MG. Key elements of Mancini’s system—aggression in duels and leveraging set-pieces—remain intact, making them tough to break down at home.

Paysandu Pa Recent Matches: Paysandu’s poor streak has them in the relegation zone and without a win in their last five. Their recent 0-0 stalemate against America MG was hard-fought defensively but underlined attacking frailties as they failed to convert several half-chances. Losses to Volta Redonda (1-2), CRB (0-2), and Chapecoense (0-2) further highlighted structural issues, particularly in transition and set-piece defense. However, Márcio Fernandes’ team have demonstrated flashes of resilience, often keeping matches close in the first hour before late-game lapses prove decisive.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Goias vs Paysandu Pa stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Goias the favourite

• Moneyline Goias 1.59 | Paysandu Pa 5.90
• Draw 3.65
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.10 | Under 2.5 1.65
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.05 | No 1.75

These odds reflect Goias’ significant home advantage, stronger form, and a much higher position in the standings. Paysandu Pa’s win rate sits at 0 percent over the past month, adding further confidence to the bookmaker’s line. The relatively short price for “Under 2.5” also underlines expectations of a controlled, possibly low-scoring encounter, especially considering both sides’ recent offensive inefficiency.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Goias possible starting eleven

Goias are likely to line up in Mancini’s usual 4-3-3. Thiago Rodrigues is a commanding presence in goal. The defensive quartet—Diego, Messias Rodrigues, Willean Bernardo and Cristian Chagas—offer a solid base with experience in duels. In midfield, Adilson’s ball-winning is complemented by Marcão’s creative distribution. Up front, Welliton Silva and Anselmo Ramon are the key threats, with the latter’s poaching instincts vital. Expect a fluid front three, capable of interchanging to disrupt Paysandu’s line. Wellington Soares may drift inward to create overloads.

Paysandu Pa possible starting eleven

Paysandu Pa will most likely opt for a 4-3-3, with Gabriel Mesquita returning between the posts. Defensively, Edílson and Bryan Borges offer width, while Thiago Heleno’s aerial strengths should help counter Goias’ set-piece threat. Anderson Leite anchors midfield, while Maurício Garcez and Diogo Oliveira need to show more penetration to support Marlon Douglas in attack. With creative play at a premium, expect Paysandu to focus on keeping the structure compact and hoping to hit Goias on transitions.

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My take on the Match

With the weight of form, home support, and tactical predictability on their side, Goias are rightly heavy favourites and should control the match tempo against an out-of-sorts Paysandu Pa. My main pick: Goias to win with a -1 Asian Handicap, underlining both their defensive improvement and set-piece prowess. Expect a controlled match with Goias pressing for an early lead and Paysandu Pa struggling to break them down, limited mainly to sporadic counter-attacks. Unless Paysandu find a new level of attacking precision, Goias should emerge with all three points.

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