Liam Duckstein
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Lithuania host Suriname in a November friendly that carries little weight in the standings but plenty of interest for bettors. Mindaugas Cepas will look to build on a recent run that includes a 3-0 win over Andorra and a 2-0 success against Liechtenstein. Henk Fraser brings a Suriname side that has shown it can score goals, yet still concede them regularly. Bookmakers rate the two teams almost evenly, with 35% for Lithuania, 30% for the draw and 36% for Suriname.
Suriname have scored six goals across their last five matches, the same number they have conceded. Lithuania have been stingier at the back. They have let in only three goals over that span, two of them in clean sheets against Andorra and Liechtenstein. That defensive gap is the main reason we lean toward a tight game.
Hot stat: Lithuania have kept two clean sheets in their last five matches, and both came in convincing home-style wins.
| 🏆 Tournament: | International Friendly 2026 (November) |
| 🗓️ Date: | 12.11.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 19:00 CEST |
Lithuania vs Suriname prediction
Our best value pick is Lithuania Draw No Bet. The Baltic side has the more reliable defence, and it has collected more wins this year, with three from eight matches. A friendly between sides this evenly matched often finishes level or with a single goal separating the teams. Backing Lithuania without the draw covers the most likely outcomes while keeping the price sensible.
Both teams play a cautious style that prioritises structure over risk. Suriname have been more open, which explains their goals for and against. Lithuania have controlled matches with fewer chances conceded. Foul counts and card trends are not available in the feed, so we rely on results and goal patterns. We expect a midfield battle with few clear chances, which points toward a low-scoring affair and a single-goal margin at most.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Lithuania Draw No Bet |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Lithuania arrive after a 0-1 defeat to Azerbaijan, which ended a stretch of mixed results. The loss came after a 1-1 draw with the same opponent, so the side has shown it can frustrate opponents. Their 3-0 win over Andorra stands out as the most convincing result in the sample. Lithuania have found the net in three of their last five matches, yet they have struggled to turn territory into a large winning margin. We expect them to play patiently and look for set pieces and transitions.
Suriname come into this fixture after a 0-1 loss to Guatemala. The result continued a difficult stretch in which they took just two points from their last five matches. Their 3-2 win over Honduras showed they can score in bunches, but the 1-2 defeat to Bolivia highlighted how easily they can leak goals. Suriname have not been reliable in shutting out opponents, and that trend makes them vulnerable against a team that protects its back line well.
🚨Check out our dedicated Lithuania vs Suriname stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Suriname the favourite
- Moneyline Lithuania 2.67 | Suriname 2.58
- Draw 3.07
Suriname hold a slight edge in the market. Their implied probability sits at 36% against Lithuania’s 35%, and the average price on Suriname is marginally shorter. The draw at around 3.07 looks fair given the even ratings and the cautious style both sides are expected to adopt. The price on Lithuania without the draw is where we see value, because the market underrates the Baltic side’s defensive record.
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Suriname. Source: Official Instagram. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict a cagey encounter in Bergen with Lithuania edging the contest on the scoreline that matters most for bettors. Lithuania have conceded just three goals in five games, and that record gives them the upper hand against an attack that has scored only six. To be honest, a stalemate would not surprise us either. Our pick stays with Lithuania Draw No Bet, backed by a low total and no BTTS.
