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The Nations League group stage heats up on Matchday 5 between 12 and 14 November 2026, featuring a pick for each of the six headline fixtures. Oleksii Svyrydov, TipsGG Sports & Esports Expert, and Oleksandr Halian, Sports Data Manager, have produced these expert football predictions, with odds running from 1.58 at the low end to 2.25 at the top — run any of those figures through an odds converter and you will see how tight these games are expected to be. The groups are past the halfway mark and almost every quartet still has something unresolved: playoff places, promotion from the second tier and survival in the top division are all being chased this month. TipsGG covers live scores, head-to-head records and pre-match odds for the Nations League.
| Match | Market | Odds | Analyst |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey vs Belgium | Both teams to score and total goals over 2.5 | 1.81 | Oleksii Svyrydov |
| Italy vs France | Italy to win by 1 goal or draw | 2.25 | Oleksandr Halian |
| Netherlands vs Greece | Total under 3 | 1.77 | Oleksii Svyrydov |
| Serbia vs Germany | Germany to win and match total under 4.5 | 1.75 | Oleksandr Halian |
| Portugal vs Denmark | Total goals over 2.5 | 1.58 | Oleksii Svyrydov |
| Northern Ireland vs Ukraine | Both teams to score (Yes) | 2.05 | Oleksandr Halian |
Turkey vs Belgium Prediction
Turkey approach the decisive stage of the autumn Nations League campaign after serious upheaval in the coaching staff. Failures in the September and October matches forced the federation’s leadership to show Vincenzo Montella the door — the man who once led the Crescent Stars to a Euro quarter-final and into the elite division. The new head coach of the national team is Sergen Yalçın, who has been set the difficult task of reviving a side on the back of four straight defeats with an aggregate score of 2:11. The job is complicated by the fact that Trabzonspor forward Aral Şimşir is currently training to an individual programme because of injury, which somewhat limits the new coach’s options in attack. That said, Arda Güler is in blistering form and is sparkling for star-studded Real Madrid.
The Red Devils, for their part, keep decent chances of reaching the playoff, holding 6 points after four matchdays. Mark van Bommel‘s side dealt confidently with Turkey at home a month ago (3:0) thanks to a brilliant brace from Kevin De Bruyne. However, the Belgian ranks have suffered an unexpected squad loss: Milan centre-back Koni De Winter categorically refused to join the squad out of frustration at his lack of playing time during the previous break. Van Bommel has already publicly stated that this decision will have long-term consequences for the 24-year-old defender, but the Brussels legion have the personnel to patch the holes.
In my view, the appointment of a new coach should breathe fresh life into the Turkey national team: not so long ago at a World Cup they were rightly considered one of the leading dark horses. The side have outstanding performers and, under the pressure of their home crowd, will go for a win whatever it costs them, even though the playoff chances are already gone. At the same time, the Belgians have no right to drop points in the chase for second place. I expect a scoring encounter in which both teams find the net.
Prediction: Both teams to score and total goals over 2.5 – odds 1.81
Italy vs France Prediction
The Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (San Siro) in Milan will host a principled clash in the Nations League (League A). Italy will try to catch France, who sit three points above them in the table.
The previous meeting between these teams was an evenly fought affair that ended in a 1:1 draw. The points gap between the rivals only adds to the intrigue of this fixture. If the Azzurri win, they will not only draw level with Les Bleus but can go top of the group, since with equal points the next tiebreaker is the goal difference in head-to-head meetings. As a rule, the first match after a long international break remains something of a mystery, as many of the national teams’ indicators are unknown after the pause. One thing is certain, though: a meeting of two decorated teams will not be short of drama.
A considerable number of injuries in both camps adds even more unpredictability. A key factor could be that France’s leader Kylian Mbappé is unlikely to take part in the match.
Although Italian football has lost a lot of ground to the French game in recent years, it is the hosts — who managed to avoid defeat in France — who look the favourites of this game to me. A draw would suit the visitors perfectly, while Italy have no choice but to go looking for fortune at the other end, thereby exposing themselves to the quick attacks of the fast-footed French. All the same, I believe Italy will avoid defeat at home, or even win it by the minimum margin.
Prediction: Italy to win by 1 goal or draw – odds 2.25
Netherlands vs Greece Prediction
The Netherlands go into the decisive match at the Johan Cruijff ArenA as group leaders with 8 points, ahead of their closest rivals Greece on additional indicators. The Oranje, led by Xavi Hernández, have run into selection problems through injuries to key performers: captain and defender Virgil van Dijk and forward Brian Brobbey have left the squad through injury. At the same time, midfielder Frenkie de Jong has returned to the ranks after a long pause and, with the Liverpool leader out, will most likely take the captain’s armband.
Greece are playing extremely pragmatic and disciplined football, which is why they sensationally share top spot in the quartet with the Dutch on an identical 8 points after four matchdays. Ivan Jovanović‘s side want above all to contain the star-studded Dutch and at the very least avoid defeat, as they managed in the previous head-to-head in October, when the teams played out a high-scoring 2:2 draw. The Greeks’ main attacking weapon up front will as usual be Benfica forward Vangelis Pavlidis, who is showing remarkable scoring form in the league — 11 goals and 3 assists in 11 rounds of the Portuguese Primeira.
The price of a mistake at the finish line could prove decisive in terms of direct qualification for the playoff. Taking that into account, along with the loss of key players by the hosts, who go into the game as clear favourites, I do not expect a festival of goals in this match, so I will risk a bet on the total coming in under 3.
Prediction: Total under 3 – odds 1.77
Serbia vs Germany Prediction
At the Rajko Mitić Stadium in Belgrade, one of the three weakest teams in League A of the Nations League by results will host Germany, who since the arrival of Jürgen Klopp at the helm have not yet been able to boast outstanding results.
Both teams approach the head-to-head in far from ideal shape. Along with the Czech Republic and Turkey, the Serbs have lost every one of the four matchdays played in the Nations League, and relegation to the division below looks practically inevitable for them.
The Germans have managed just one win in this campaign, and it came against Serbia (2:0), alongside two draws and one unexpected defeat to Greece. Germany have 5 points to their name, only three fewer than the Netherlands and Greece above them, who will now play each other next. Given the congestion in the table, the Germans need to do everything in their power to take an away win.
Despite the run of defeats, the Serbs are determined to give their opponents a real fight. What is more, if the team do lose at home, they usually do so by the minimum margin — six of their last seven defeats on home soil were by the minimum. It is hard to predict what the Germans will look like after the pause, but I do not believe a heavy scoreline should be expected in this game.
Prediction: Germany to win and match total under 4.5 – odds 1.75
Portugal vs Denmark Prediction
Portugal approach their home match in Braga as confident group leaders with a 100% record — 12 points after four matchdays. For the Seleção das Quinas this is an exceptionally significant fixture, as it opens a new chapter of history without Cristiano Ronaldo, who recently officially announced his retirement from the national team. Despite the absence of the legendary captain and the recent scandal over his departure from the squad because of differences with head coach Jorge Jesus, the red-and-greens are showing good team play, with João Félix and Gonçalo Ramos doing the damage up front.
Denmark sit second in the table on 6 points and continue the fight to keep alive their hopes of reaching the playoff. Brian Riemer‘s side want above all to gain revenge for the first-round shootout in Copenhagen, where the Scandinavians lost 2:4 to Portugal and Rasmus Højlund paid tribute to Ronaldo by celebrating his goal against Portugal in his style. However, ahead of the trip the red-and-whites suffered a painful squad loss: Barcelona centre-back Andreas Christensen, after a difficult recovery from injury and long deliberations, asked the coaching staff to let him stay at his club in order to complete his rehabilitation in full.
The upcoming clash at the Estádio Municipal de Braga will be a moment of truth for the hosts, who with a win or even a draw will guarantee themselves first place in the group ahead of schedule. The visitors, meanwhile, desperately need to take points to protect their second position from the advances of Wales and Norway. Given Portugal’s attacking power and Denmark’s need for points, I believe we are in for a high-scoring encounter — with at least 3 goals.
Prediction: Total goals over 2.5 – odds 1.58
Northern Ireland vs Ukraine Prediction
At Windsor Park in Belfast, the sensation of the group will host Ukraine, who have so far played below their capabilities and have only the slimmest of chances of promotion.
Northern Ireland are the only country not to have conceded a single goal in four matchdays across all divisions of the Nations League. A reliable defence, combined with strong home form and a true fighting character, is the main hallmark of the Green and White Army. In their last 10 home matches in all competitions, Northern Ireland have lost only once. The team do not score too much — four goals in four matches (exactly one per game on average) — but the ability to squeeze the maximum out of the minimum brings its rewards.
The win, secured not entirely on merit against Hungary in the first matchday, remains Ukraine’s only one in this campaign. Since then, Maldera‘s men have only surprised, if at all, in a negative sense — suffering a heavy 0:3 defeat to this same Northern Ireland and generally producing insipid football.
For any hope of promotion the visitors need a win and nothing else. That will force the Blue-and-Yellows to push forward, which in turn will give Northern Ireland the chance to play their favourite game of counter-attacking second. Despite the hosts’ ability to dry the game out, I believe both teams will be able to exchange goals in this match.
Prediction: Both teams to score (Yes) – odds 2.05
Across the six picks the prices run from 1.58 to 2.25, and stacking two or more of these selections together changes the potential return quickly — a free bet calculator is the quickest way to work out what a combined slip would pay before committing a stake. Three of the six markets sit on goal lines, which says everything about how the editors expect this window’s matches to be decided.
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FAQ
What Nations League predictions are included for 12-14 November?
Six selections, one per fixture, priced between 1.58 and 2.25: both teams to score and over 2.5 goals in Turkey vs Belgium, Italy to win by 1 goal or draw, total under 3 in Netherlands vs Greece, Germany to win and match total under 4.5, total goals over 2.5 in Portugal vs Denmark, and both teams to score (Yes) in Northern Ireland vs Ukraine.
Who made the picks in this digest?
Oleksii Svyrydov, TipsGG Sports & Esports Expert, and Oleksandr Halian, Sports Data Manager, split the six selections three each. Svyrydov covered Turkey vs Belgium, Netherlands vs Greece and Portugal vs Denmark, while Halian handled Italy vs France, Serbia vs Germany and Northern Ireland vs Ukraine.
Where is the Italy vs France fixture being played?
At the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (San Siro) in Milan. France lead Italy by three points in the League A table, and an Italy win would put the Azzurri top on the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Which selection has the shortest odds in the digest?
Total goals over 2.5 in Portugal vs Denmark at 1.58, one of Oleksii Svyrydov’s picks. A win or even a draw in Braga will guarantee Portugal first place in the group.
How many picks carry odds above 2.00?
Two of the six: Italy to win by 1 goal or draw at 2.25 and both teams to score (Yes) in Northern Ireland vs Ukraine at 2.05, played at Windsor Park in Belfast.