Everton vs Sunderland Prediction: 10.01.2026 FA Cup 2025/26

The FA Cup Round of 64 clash between Everton and Sunderland on 10 January 2026 delivers a contest steeped in tradition, but modernized by tactical nuance and the necessity for each to assert themselves in a challenging campaign. With both sides experiencing protracted winless spells, this match offers a genuine lifeline in terms of momentum, while also representing a managerial subplot: David Moyes leads Everton against Sunderland, managed by Régis Le Bris — both tacticians known for adapting strategies when it counts most. Of particular interest is Everton’s tendency to oscillate between rigid defending and sudden attacking surges, tested against Sunderland’s resilience in grinding out draws even against top-tier opposition like Manchester City. Midfield battle and the use of width will be critical, especially with creative sparks like Jack Grealish for Everton and Sunderland’s versatile Enzo Le Fée holding keys to unlocking stubborn defenses.

Notably, two players to watch are Thierno Barry, Everton’s regular forward who has demonstrated a nose for crucial goals, and Simon Adingra on Sunderland’s frontline, combining technique and opportunism in transitions. Both can change the game’s rhythm with a single moment of brilliance.
Hot stat: Sunderland have drawn 4 of their last 6 matches, including holding Manchester City to a 0-0 result — a notable mark of their defensive organization and discipline.

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Everton vs Sunderland prediction

The best value prediction for this FA Cup fixture is “Everton Draw No Bet”. While neither team has been convincing in recent weeks, Everton’s more consistent offensive output (5 goals in their last 5 matches versus Sunderland’s 2) and their home advantage at a packed Hill Dickinson Stadium tip the scales their way. Sunderland’s draw-heavy form reflects a compact but sometimes blunt attack, suggesting a tight contest, but Everton’s ability to fashion clear chances, especially through flanks and set pieces, gives them a slender edge.

Everton, under Moyes, tend to maintain midfield solidity with a 4-2-3-1 structure, employing high pressing in spells but also sitting deep when out of possession. Their fouls (43 in the last 5 matches) and moderate yellow card count (5) hint at disciplined aggression. Meanwhile, Sunderland’s 4-2-3-1 leans on ball retention (slightly higher average passes completed and pass accuracy), yet their 8 yellow cards and 50 fouls in 5 matches indicate a sometimes overzealous approach, which could lead to key suspensions or vulnerable moments under pressure. Sunderland excel in interceptions (50 to Everton’s 41), but lack a consistent cutting edge up front. Expect Everton to control tempo, exploit set-piece opportunities, and press Sunderland into mistakes, while the visitors will aim to frustrate and counter.

Team Analysis

Everton’s recent form analysis: Everton’s last five games show just one victory — a 2-0 success over Nottingham Forest, highlighting their capacity to dominate weaker defenses. Their most recent game, a 1-1 draw with Wolves, underlines both resilience and a hint of vulnerability, conceding despite controlling phases of play. Defensive solidity was shown against Burnley (0-0), but the attacking spark occasionally fizzles out, particularly against elite opposition like Arsenal (0-1 loss). Their shot creation (58 in five matches) is respectable, and while goals have been spread, forwards such as Thierno Barry and Beto remain critical to their threat profile.

Sunderland’s recent form analysis: Sunderland’s run has been defined by stubbornness rather than flair. Their closest brush with three points came in drawn encounters — notably a 1-1 with Tottenham and a robust 0-0 against Manchester City that showcased their defensive mettle. However, the 0-3 loss to Brentford exposed their offensive limitations; only 2 goals in 5 matches, despite some clever midfield work from Enzo Le Fée and Granit Xhaka. The team’s preference for retaining possession can become sterile if their young forwards don’t step up in the final third. Sunderland’s 19 corners in five games show they earn chances, but conversion remains elusive.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Everton vs Sunderland stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Everton the favourite

• Moneyline Everton 2.19 | Sunderland 3.50
• Draw 3.20
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.14 | Under 2.5 1.69
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.98 | No 1.75

With bookmakers assessing Everton as 44 percent likely to win, these odds fairly reflect home field influence and recent attacking promise. Sunderland’s 27 percent win chance mirrors their high draw rate and less potent offense; the value is slightly on Everton, particularly in draw-protected scenarios. The Under 2.5 market looks well-priced — low recent scoring and both teams’ solid defensive lines suggest a tight affair, while the ‘both teams to score – No’ is attractive given Sunderland’s scoring woes.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Everton possible starting eleven

Everton are expected to line up in a familiar 4-2-3-1 formation. Pickford anchors the defense, with consistent selections in Mykolenko and Tarkowski providing defensive leadership. Garner and Iroegbunam shield the back four, while McNeil and Alcaraz offer attacking width. Grealish’s creativity is pivotal between the lines. Barry, with 2 goals in his last 5, is the focal point up front, capable of converting half-chances; watch for McNeil’s supply line and the overlapping fullbacks for attacking impetus.

Sunderland possible starting eleven

Sunderland will likely mirror Everton’s 4-2-3-1, banking on continuity at the back and engine room prowess from Xhaka and Le Fée. Roefs has been a mainstay in goal, with Hume and Cirkin tasked to balance defensive duties and supporting the midfield. Up front, Adingra and Brobbey must stretch the Everton defense, with Mayenda’s movement looking to exploit gaps — Adingra’s recent lively displays make him a threat to watch.

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My take on the Match

Main pick: Everton Draw No Bet. This prediction reflects Everton’s home advantage, the higher attacking ceiling provided by Barry and Grealish’s creativity, and Sunderland’s entrenched conservatism. In a match where both sides lack recent victories, expect Everton’s ability to generate more clear chances and withstand late Sunderland pressure to be decisive. A low-scoring, nervy game – but Everton’s edge in offensive personnel could make just enough of a difference in this classic cup encounter.

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