Sofia Quijada
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Deportivo Cuenca welcome Guayaquil City to the Alejandro Serrano Aguilar in a Liga Pro Apertura clash that carries real table implications for both sides. Cuenca sit 12th with 32 points and are pressing to avoid further slippage, while City occupy 9th on 36 points and can push into the top half with a win. The interesting detail here is that these two met earlier in this same Apertura phase, with Cuenca taking a 1-0 win, so City arrive with a point to prove on the road.
Miller Bolaños is the standout name for Guayaquil City, registering 3 goals and 4 assists across the last five matches and leading the team in shots with 17. For Cuenca, Carlos Arboleda has been the most active attacking presence with 10 shots and consistent involvement, making him the player most likely to cause problems from the home side.
Hot stat: Guayaquil City have scored 8 goals across their last five matches, compared to Deportivo Cuenca’s 2 over the same period, a stark gap that reflects City’s attacking momentum heading into this fixture.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Liga Pro 2026 – Apertura (Ecuador) |
| 🏟 Venue: | Alejandro Serrano Aguilar, Cuenca |
| 🗓️ Date: | 02.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 23:30 CEST |
Deportivo Cuenca vs Guayaquil City Prediction
Cuenca’s home advantage is real, but their recent form is alarming. They have won zero of their last five matches, losing four, and their 2-goal tally across those games tells you everything about their attacking output. Guayaquil City, by contrast, have won two of their last five, drawn two, and scored 8 goals in that stretch. City’s form over the last 30 days (40% win rate) is clearly superior to Cuenca’s (0%).
Cuenca play a 4-2-3-1 and average 39 fouls across five matches, which is lower than City’s 45, but Cuenca’s 3 red cards in that span is a serious concern for their defensive discipline. City commit more fouls but convert that aggression into pressure rather than indiscipline. Cuenca’s pass accuracy sits at 1,716 completed passes versus City’s 2,125, meaning City dominate the ball and create more from open play. City’s 81 free kicks earned versus Cuenca’s 64 also shows they draw contact and generate set-piece opportunities consistently.
We predict Guayaquil City to win this match despite being the away side. The bookmakers lean toward Cuenca at 53%, but City’s recent form, superior goal output, and ball control make them the value pick at longer odds.
- Main prediction: Guayaquil City to win
- Value bet: Guayaquil City +1.5 Asian Handicap
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Guayaquil City to win and over 1.5 goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Deportivo Cuenca’s last five matches paint a bleak picture. They lost 0-1 to Independiente del Valle, then fell 1-2 to bottom-side Manta, which is arguably the most damaging result of the run. A 0-2 home defeat to Orense followed, then a goalless draw with Mushuc Runa before losing 1-3 to Tecnico Universitario in their most recent outing. Coach Daniel Néculman’s side has conceded 10 goals across those five games while scoring just 2. The red card count of 3 in five matches points to a side under pressure and making poor decisions at the back.
Guayaquil City have been far more consistent. They beat Macara 1-2 away, drew 0-0 with Emelec, drew 2-2 with Libertad, then beat Tecnico Universitario 3-2. Their most recent match, a 2-1 win over LDU Quito, is a strong result against a side sitting 5th in the table. Pool Gavilánez’s team is scoring goals, creating chances, and showing defensive solidity when needed. The only blemish is a narrow loss to Macara, and even that came away from home against a top-half side.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Deportivo Cuenca | Guayaquil City |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 1 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Deportivo Cuenca vs Guayaquil City stats page for more info.
Deportivo Cuenca. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Deportivo Cuenca the Favourite
- Moneyline Deportivo Cuenca 1.73–1.80 | Guayaquil City 4.30–4.33
- Draw 3.20–3.30
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) N/A
The market prices Cuenca as clear favourites at around 1.73-1.80, reflecting home advantage and the head-to-head record in this Apertura phase. Guayaquil City at 4.30+ represents genuine value given their form over the last 30 days. Cuenca’s inability to win a single match in five attempts, including a loss to relegation-threatened Manta, suggests the favourite tag is inflated by home bias rather than current quality. City at those odds deserve serious consideration.
Possible Starting Lineups
Deportivo Cuenca Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Facundo Ferrero
- DF: Marcos Andres Lopez, Ivan Mateo Piedra Zaputt, Eddie Guevara, Edison Vega
- MF: Mateo Maccari, David Gonzalez, Jeremy Chacon
- FW: Carlos Arboleda, Lucas Mancinelli, Melvin Diaz
Cuenca’s 4-2-3-1 setup puts Facundo Ferrero, who has made 11 saves across five matches, as the last line of defence. Arboleda leads the attacking press with 10 shots and has been Cuenca’s most productive forward in terms of volume. Lucas Mancinelli is the only outfield player to score in the last five games, netting both of Cuenca’s goals, making him the one forward Guayaquil City must track. The midfield trio of Maccari, Gonzalez, and Chacon needs to control tempo if Cuenca are to limit City’s passing dominance.
Guayaquil City Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Gilmar Napa
- DF: Janvier Yardely Rodríguez López, Joshue Quinonez, Esnaider Cabezas, Erick Patricio Ladines Calvache
- MF: Dixon Arroyo, P. González, Miller Bolaños, S Laurino
- FW: Edinson Mero, Anderson Naula
Gavilánez lines up in a 4-4-2 with Gilmar Napa in goal, who has 16 saves across five matches and is one of the more active goalkeepers in the division. Dixon Arroyo leads the team in passing with 350 passes at 91.7% accuracy and anchors the midfield. Miller Bolaños is the danger man, combining 3 goals and 4 assists with 17 shots, and Edinson Mero adds 3 goals of his own up front. That two-striker combination, supported by Bolaños running from midfield, is the primary threat Cuenca must contain.
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Guayaquil City. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
The numbers point clearly toward Guayaquil City. They outscore Cuenca 8-2 across the last five matches, hold superior pass accuracy, and arrive in form after beating LDU Quito. Cuenca’s three red cards in five games signal a fragile backline, and their attack has been toothless against opponents at every level of the table. City’s 4-4-2 with Bolaños and Mero in top form gives them the tools to punish a Cuenca defence that has conceded 10 times recently. We back Guayaquil City to win, with over 2.5 goals a reasonable secondary target given City’s attacking output and Cuenca’s defensive vulnerability. To be honest, the value at 4.30 on City is one of the stronger propositions on the card this matchday.
