Sofia Quijada
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Juarez sit dead last in the Liga MX 2026 Apertura standings with zero points from six matches, having conceded 19 goals. Pachuca, sitting 15th with five points, are far from convincing themselves, but they visit Ciudad Juarez as the clear favorites. The one factor that complicates a straightforward Pachuca pick: their last 30-day record shows just one win from seven outings, so form is shaky on both sides.
Two players stand out heading into this fixture. Oscar Estupiñan leads Juarez’s attack with three goals in the last five matches and 12 total shots, making him the only consistent attacking threat on a side that has scored just five times in that span. For Pachuca, Salomón Rondón has matched Estupiñan’s tally with three goals, adding five offsides to show he is constantly pushing the defensive line, and his 14 shots lead all players in this matchup.
Pachuca’s hot stat from recent games: they registered 87 total shots across their last five matches compared to Juarez’s 40, more than double the output, yet they scored only six goals from that volume, suggesting poor conversion but consistent pressure.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Liga MX 2026 Apertura, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez, Ciudad Juarez |
| 🗓️ Date: | 05.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 05:00 CEST |
Juarez vs Pachuca Prediction
Pachuca away win is the call here. Juarez have lost all six Liga MX Apertura games, shipping 19 goals in the process. Their last five matches across all competitions produced defeats to Toluca (0-4), Club America (1-2), and Monterrey (1-6), with only a win over Vancouver Whitecaps providing any relief. The defensive numbers are alarming: 54 fouls conceded in five games and a pass accuracy of just 1,359 out of 1,694 attempted passes. Pachuca, for all their inconsistency, carry significantly more attacking threat, and the bookmakers pricing them at 48% win probability reflects that gap accurately.
Pachuca play a possession-oriented game with 1,944 passes across five matches and a pass accuracy of 1,621, comfortably outperforming Juarez in build-up quality. Their 78 fouls in five matches is high, which could generate set-piece opportunities for Juarez. Juarez, under Pedro Caixinha, commit 54 fouls and earn 12 yellow cards in the same period, meaning this game has the potential to turn physical. Pachuca have two red cards in recent matches, so discipline is an issue Benjamín Mora needs to manage.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Salomón Rondón to score anytime |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Juarez are in a deep crisis. Six losses from six Liga MX Apertura games, a goal difference of -16, and zero points paint a stark picture. Their last five matches across competitions saw them beaten by Toluca 0-4, Club America 1-2, and Monterrey 1-6, with only a 3-1 result against Vancouver Whitecaps and a 0-3 loss to Real Salt Lake completing the run. Sebastián Jurado has been the starting goalkeeper for all five matches tracked, conceding heavily behind a defense that struggles to hold shape. Francisco Nevarez and Javier Aquino have been the most active defensively with eight and eight interceptions respectively across five games, but the unit as a whole remains porous. Juarez’s 13 corners in five games shows they do create some width, but the end product is missing.
Pachuca’s recent form is inconsistent rather than dire. They drew 1-1 with Chivas Guadalajara and 1-1 with Atletico San Luis in their last two outings, following a 2-3 defeat to Puebla. A 1-0 win over Charlotte and a 1-2 loss to Columbus Crew round out the last five. Carlos Moreno has been the regular starter in goal. The midfield, led by Elías Montiel with seven interceptions and Christian Rivera contributing 128 pass accuracy, provides a decent platform. Robert Nunes leads the team in shots with nine across five matches, though his conversion has been poor. Pachuca’s 30 corner kicks in five games is the standout number and highlights their ability to sustain pressure in wide areas.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Juarez | Pachuca |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 7 | 7 |
| Total shots | 40 | 87 |
| Free kicks | 50 | 48 |
| Corner kicks | 13 | 30 |
| Total fouls | 54 | 78 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 80% | 83% |
| Interceptions | 57 | 44 |
| Offsides | 4 | 7 |
The last five head-to-head meetings show a remarkably even goal record: three Juarez wins, one draw, and one Pachuca win, with the most recent clash in the 2026 Clausura ending 0-2 to Pachuca. Juarez did take a 2-1 Play-In win and scored in three of the five meetings.
🚨Check out our dedicated Juarez vs Pachuca stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Pachuca the Favourite
- Moneyline Juarez 3.40 | Pachuca 1.91
- Draw 3.15
- Over/Under Over 2.5 — | Under 2.5 —
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — | No —
The everygame line of 3.40 on Juarez reflects a realistic assessment of their current form. Pachuca at 1.91 offers fair value given their superior squad depth and Juarez’s complete inability to collect points this season. The draw at 3.15 is worth noting given Pachuca’s recent habit of dropping points in draws, but with Juarez conceding 19 goals in six games, backing a Pachuca win feels like the more grounded approach. We predict the Pachuca win market offers the clearest value at these prices.
Possible Starting Lineups
Juarez Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Sebastián Jurado
- DF: Javier Aquino, Jesus Murillo, Francisco Nevarez, Gilberto Sepulveda
- MF: Denzell Garcia, Rodrigo Dourado, José Luis Rodríguez, Guilherme Castilho
- FW: Ían Torres, Oscar Estupiñan
Caixinha has consistently lined up in a 4-2-3-1 shape across recent matches. Sebastián Jurado starts in goal after appearing in all five tracked matches. The back four picks itself with Aquino and Nevarez the most active defensively. Rodrigo Dourado and Denzell Garcia form the double pivot, with José Luis Rodríguez providing two assists from midfield. Oscar Estupiñan leads the line and is the primary player to watch with three goals and 12 shots in five games.
Pachuca Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Carlos Moreno
- DF: Sergio Barreto, Jorge Berlanga, Eduardo Dos Santos, Mauricio Isais
- MF: Elías Montiel, Christian Rivera, Rodolfo Pizarro, Sergio Rodríguez
- FW: Salomón Rondón, Oussama Idrissi
Pachuca’s 4-2-3-1 is built around Elías Montiel and Christian Rivera controlling the midfield, with Montiel recording seven interceptions across five matches. Salomón Rondón leads the line and is the standout name, combining three goals with relentless movement. Oussama Idrissi provides pace and creativity from a wide forward role. Sergio Barreto carries a red card in recent games, so his discipline will be tested against a Juarez side that commits 54 fouls per five matches.
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Pachuca. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
Juarez are the worst team in the Liga MX Apertura by a significant margin, and their defensive record of 19 goals conceded in six matches makes it hard to back them in any market. Pachuca’s own form is far from impressive, with one win in seven outings over the last 30 days, but their shot volume (87 across five games), Rondón’s goal threat, and the sheer gap in squad quality point to a Pachuca win. The head-to-head record shows Juarez can score, so both teams to score at yes is reasonable, particularly given Pachuca’s 78 fouls in five games creating dead-ball opportunities. We predict a Pachuca win with both teams scoring, and Rondón to find the net at any time.
- Best Bet: Pachuca to Win
- Value Pick: Both Teams to Score – Yes
- Anytime Scorer: Salomón Rondón
- Total Goals: Over 2.5
