Levi Rothermund
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Paderborn host Freiburg at the Home Deluxe Arena on Matchday 2 of the 2026/27 Bundesliga season. Paderborn opened with a goalless draw against Mainz, which was a decent enough result for a side that only recently earned top-flight status. Freiburg, on the other hand, hit the ground running with a 4-1 win over Werder Bremen and arrive in Paderborn on the back of seven straight wins across all competitions. The gap in quality between these two sides is real, and the stats from recent weeks make it hard to ignore.
Two players to watch: Igor Matanovic leads Freiburg’s attack with four goals and three assists across his last four appearances, making him the most dangerous forward on the pitch. For Paderborn, Jano Ter-Horst has been a quiet but consistent contributor, scoring once and putting in strong defensive work with five interceptions across two recent matches.
The hot stat heading into this one: Freiburg have scored 16 goals across their last five matches, averaging 3.2 per game. That is a striking number against a Paderborn side that has managed just four goals in the same span.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Bundesliga 2026/27 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn |
| 🗓️ Date: | 05.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 15:30 CEST |
Paderborn vs Freiburg Prediction
Freiburg are the clear favourites and we think the odds reflect that accurately. Their recent form is near-perfect, their attacking output dwarfs Paderborn’s, and Julian Schuster’s side have been winning games with real authority. Paderborn are not a pushover at home, but their squad depth and attacking threat pale in comparison to what Freiburg bring.
The best value here is on Freiburg to win. The away side’s pass accuracy and total shot numbers over the last five games are substantially higher than Paderborn’s, and their 90 total shots compared to Paderborn’s 34 tells you everything about the difference in attacking intent. We think Freiburg control possession, create the better chances, and convert enough of them to win comfortably.
Paderborn committed 20 fouls in five matches, which is relatively disciplined, but Freiburg have racked up 38, suggesting they press aggressively and fight for every ball. That physical approach tends to wear down newly promoted sides over 90 minutes. Paderborn’s four yellow cards in recent games versus Freiburg’s three is close, but the volume of play Freiburg generate means their disciplinary numbers come at much higher intensity.
Freiburg’s corner count of 30 in five games versus Paderborn’s 11 further signals one-sided territorial dominance. We expect that pattern to continue here.
- Our prediction: Freiburg to win
- Back Freiburg at odds around 2.10 to 2.51 depending on your bookmaker
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Freiburg to win both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Paderborn’s recent run shows two wins and two draws from their last four matches. Their opening Bundesliga fixture against Mainz ended 0-0, which was a controlled performance but one that showed their attacking limitations. Before that, they beat Phonix Lubeck 4-2 and VfL Osnabruck 2-0, both against significantly lower-ranked opposition. Their draw against Werder Bremen (2-2) is arguably their most relevant recent result, showing they can compete and score against Bundesliga-level sides, but also that they concede.
Ralf Kettemann’s side set up in a 4-2-3-1 and rely on collective organisation rather than individual brilliance. Santiago Castaneda and Gabriel Vidović add some creativity in midfield, but the squad’s overall quality is a tier below what they face on Saturday.
Freiburg have been in exceptional form. Seven wins from seven in the last 30 days, including a 4-1 win over Werder Bremen to open the Bundesliga season, a 5-1 demolition of Dusseldorf, and two wins over Motherwell. They also beat Crystal Palace 2-0, which adds some weight to their recent performances given the Premier League opposition. Julian Schuster’s 4-3-3 system generates high shot volumes, strong pressing, and consistent scoring from multiple positions. Derry Scherhant leads on assists with three in four games, Yuito Suzuki has three goals in four appearances, and Matanovic has been the focal point up front with four goals.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Paderborn | Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 4 | 16 |
| Total shots | 34 | 90 |
| Free kicks | 24 | 55 |
| Corner kicks | 11 | 30 |
| Total fouls | 20 | 38 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 85 | 86 |
| Interceptions | 23 | 26 |
| Offsides | 4 | 4 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Paderborn vs Freiburg stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Freiburg the favourite
- Moneyline Paderborn 3.58 | Freiburg 2.10
- Draw 3.84
- Over/Under Over 2.5 — | Under 2.5 —
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — | No —
The best Freiburg moneyline odds sit at 2.10 with 888starz, and honestly that looks fair given their current form. Bookmakers price the draw at 3.84, which we think is about right since a Paderborn draw here would require a significant defensive effort and some fortune. The Paderborn win at 3.58 reflects their home advantage but also the clear quality gap. We would not back the hosts at those odds given the evidence from recent weeks.
Possible Starting Lineups
Paderborn possible starting eleven
- GK: Markus Schubert
- DF: Laurin Curda, Tjark Scheller, Jano Ter-Horst, Jonah Sticker
- MF: Mattes Hansen, Raphael Obermair, Santiago Castaneda, Laurin Ulrich, Gabriel Vidović
- FW: Stefano Marino
Paderborn have settled into a 4-2-3-1 shape in recent weeks. Schubert starts in goal ahead of Nahuel Noll based on slightly more recent playing time. The back four picks itself with Ter-Horst as a key figure, both defensively and as a goal threat from set pieces. Castaneda and Vidović carry the most attacking threat in midfield, with Marino leading the line. Oliver Batista Meier could push for a spot on the bench and provide creativity from wide areas if Paderborn need a goal.
Freiburg possible starting eleven
- GK: Mio Backhaus
- DF: Matthias Ginter, Philipp Lienhart, Maximilian Rosenfelder, Philipp Treu
- MF: Maximilian Eggestein, Yannick Engelhardt, Yuito Suzuki
- FW: Derry Scherhant, Igor Matanovic, Cyriaque Irié
Freiburg line up in their preferred 4-3-3. Mio Backhaus has started the most games in goal and is the clear first choice. Ginter, with two goals and one assist in recent games, is a real threat from set pieces and anchors the defence. Eggestein and Engelhardt provide structure in midfield, while Suzuki, Scherhant, and Matanovic form a fluid and dangerous front three. Matanovic is the standout name here with four goals in four games, and Scherhant’s three assists show how well he links play in the final third. Lukas Kübler could push for a starting spot at right back given his recent involvement.
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Freiburg. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
Freiburg arrive at the Home Deluxe Arena in the best form of any side in this division right now. Seven straight wins, 16 goals in five matches, and a squad that outperforms Paderborn in almost every statistical category. Paderborn’s 0-0 draw on Matchday 1 shows they can be organised at home, but Freiburg’s attacking depth and pressing intensity is a different challenge entirely.
We think Freiburg win this one without too much trouble. The total goals market over 2.5 looks well-supported given Freiburg’s output, and we lean towards the away side keeping a clean sheet given how little Paderborn created against Mainz. Freiburg to win both halves is our hot tip, backed by their habit of scoring early and pressing relentlessly from the first whistle.
The best value play is Freiburg to win at 2.10 with 888starz. Maybe pair that with over 2.5 goals for a combined ticket if your bookmaker allows it.
