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The 2026 US Open arrives with the men’s draw missing its World No. 1 entirely, its defending champion returning from a four-month wrist injury, and its all-time great in the same half as that defending champion. Jannik Sinner withdrew with a right knee problem, handing the No. 1 seeding to Roland Garros champion Alexander Zverev; Carlos Alcaraz defends his title as the No. 2 seed having not played since April; Novak Djokovic, seeded fourth at 39, chases a fifth US Open crown and a record 25th major after going out in the second round in Cincinnati to Thiago Agustin Tirante. On the women’s side, the North American hard-court swing has exposed the top seeds repeatedly to aggressive counter-punchers and left-handed tacticians who refuse to follow the script. The draw came out on 27 August and main draw play begins on 30 August. The market, still anchored to historical prestige and name recognition, is leaving gaps for bettors willing to trust what has actually happened over the last 60 days — provided they also read the bracket.
Arthur Fils
- Career-high ranking of World No. 11, age 22, representing France; seeded 10th in New York
- Won the Cincinnati Masters 1000 title on 23 August 2026, defeating Frances Tiafoe 6-3, 1-6, 6-0 in the final — his first Masters title, and the first for a Frenchman in Cincinnati since Guy Forget in 1991
- 2026 season record of 32-10, with the Barcelona title, a final in Doha and semi-finals at the Masters events in Miami and Madrid
- Hired Goran Ivanisevic in February 2026, immediately after returning from a lower-back stress fracture sustained at Roland Garros in May 2025
- Cincinnati run: Yannick Hanfmann 7-6(5), 6-1; Jiri Lehecka (9) 6-1, 6-7(7), 6-3; Alex de Minaur (5) 6-3, 6-4; Tirante; Flavio Cobolli (7) 6-3, 6-4; Tiafoe (17) in the final
- Opens against Stefanos Tsitsipas, with Ben Shelton (8) projected in the fourth round and Alcaraz (2) in the quarters
Fils sustained the stress fracture in his lower back at Roland Garros in late May 2025, played one more event all year in Toronto that August, and did not return to the tour until Montpellier in February 2026. Wimbledon this July was his only major since that injury — he was still rebuilding when the Australian Open came around, then missed Roland Garros with a hip problem. Ivanisevic arrived at the Qatar Open in the middle of that comeback and has stayed. Whatever the pair have been working on, the serve now holds up when the match gets long, which is exactly what you need across seven best-of-five matches.
His Cincinnati run was the clearest possible signal that his stamina concerns are resolved. Six matches in eleven days in Midwest humidity, beating the No. 9, No. 5 and No. 7 seeds along the way, and never looking like the player who spent eight months off the tour. The de Minaur win took 82 minutes. Against Cobolli in the semi-final he dropped serve early, sat through a 45-minute rain and lightning delay, and won the next two sets anyway. The final against Tiafoe was the most telling of all: Fils lost the second set 1-6 and then won the third 6-0, against a crowd favourite on his home continent. That kind of composure in a decider is not a statistical accident. It is a mentality.
The knock on Fils is his Grand Slam record. He has never passed the second round at the US Open, going 2-2 across his 2023 and 2024 appearances, and his best result at any major remains the 2024 Wimbledon fourth round. Oddsmakers have him at around +1200, which makes him the fifth-shortest price on the board — ahead of Taylor Fritz and Rafael Jodar. That is not a market error, and anyone selling it as one is a year behind. Fils is now priced roughly where he belongs. The problem is the draw: Tsitsipas is arguably the pick of the opening round, Shelton beat him in their most recent meeting and looms in the fourth, and Alcaraz sits at the bottom of the quarter. We think the outright is a pass and the value is in his match markets and a quarter-final line. Watch the first serve against Tsitsipas; if he is landing above 65% and holding comfortably, the fourth-round price against Shelton becomes the bet.
Brandon Nakashima
- Career-best ranking of No. 17, age 25, seeded 16th; leads the entire ATP Tour with 22 hard-court wins in 2026
- Reached his first Masters 1000 final in Montreal, losing to Ben Shelton 6-3, 7-6(4), then made the Cincinnati semi-finals — back-to-back Masters 1000 semi-finals
- Hired former World No. 6 Wayne Ferreira in mid-June 2026, starting at Queen’s; Ferreira has previously coached Frances Tiafoe, Alexei Popyrin and Jack Draper
- In Cincinnati he saved three match points to beat Daniil Medvedev 6-7(3), 7-6(4), 6-1, then beat Taylor Fritz in the quarter-finals, before losing to Tiafoe 7-5, 6-3 in the last four
- Three consecutive deep runs: Washington semi-final, Montreal final, Cincinnati semi-final
- Opens against Nuno Borges in Djokovic’s quarter, which also contains Medvedev (7) and Tiafoe (11)
Nakashima is the quietest story of the North American hard-court summer, and that is precisely why the market has him at +5000. While Fritz, Shelton and Tiafoe absorbed the domestic media attention, Nakashima was building the most productive hard-court record on the ATP Tour. He beat Daniel Altmaier, Titouan Droguet, Arthur Rinderknech, Luciano Darderi and Rafael Jodar to reach the Montreal final. He then went straight to Cincinnati, saved three match points against a former champion in Medvedev, and beat Fritz in the quarters — the same Fritz who had beaten him in the Dallas final in February and again in the Washington semis three weeks earlier. Three consecutive deep runs without any physical breakdown. That kind of volume is not luck.
Ferreira’s influence has been tangible. Nakashima was always a disciplined defender with an elite serve, but the shift to front-foot point construction has made him genuinely dangerous from the first shot — the serve-and-volley play he used to erase Medvedev’s third match point is not a shot the old Nakashima went looking for. He described the quarters and semis in Montreal as the best tennis of his career, and the ranking backs him: from outside the top 30 in March to a career-high No. 17 in August.
The betting case is straightforward but it needs a caveat the market is pricing correctly. At +5000 he sits alongside Alexander Bublik, de Minaur and Learner Tien, and the outright is a long shot mainly because of where he landed: Djokovic’s quarter, with Medvedev and Tiafoe in the same section and a 1-7 career record against Tiafoe. His Grand Slam ceiling is also real — a 2024 US Open fourth round and a 2022 Wimbledon fourth round are the extent of his second-week experience. So take the number for what it is. The genuine value is round by round: a clean, dominant first-round win over Borges would signal that his best-of-five comfort has arrived alongside his best-of-three brilliance, and his fourth-round line against a 39-year-old Djokovic is where the real edge lives.
Flavio Cobolli
- Career-high ranking of World No. 6, age 24, Italy; seeded 5th in New York
- Reached the Roland Garros final in 2026, losing to Alexander Zverev 6-1, 4-6, 6-4, 6-7(5), 6-1, and made his top-10 debut by getting there
- Reached the Wimbledon quarter-final, where he was beaten by wild card Arthur Fery, and the Cincinnati semi-final, his first Masters 1000 semi-final
- Won his first three Cincinnati matches in three sets, including a comeback over Rafael Jodar 4-6, 7-6(3), 6-3 in the fourth round to reach his first hard-court Masters quarter-final
- Recurring early-round vulnerability: he was the first seed out in Montreal, beaten in his opening match, days before the Cincinnati run
- Fourth in the Race to Turin and in contention for a first ATP Finals appearance; compatriot Jannik Sinner has withdrawn from the US Open
Cobolli’s reputation as a clay specialist is about a year out of date. Reaching a Grand Slam final at Roland Garros and the Wimbledon quarter-finals in the same season already proved he had solved the best-of-five puzzle. His Cincinnati run confirmed the hard-court dimension: three three-set wins in Midwest humidity in a row, including two and a half hours against Jodar where he came from a set down and broke the Spaniard at 2-3 in the decider to close it out. His forehand is a genuine weapon, not just a pusher’s consistent shot; it penetrates deep and creates angles that force opponents into error. Fils shut him down in the semi-final, but Fils shut everyone down that week.
The problem oddsmakers are penalising him for is real. His season has swung between extremes — a maiden Slam final and a Wimbledon quarter-final on one side, jarring opening-match exits on the other, the Montreal one coming a week before he beat three good players in three sets each. It reads as a concentration issue against lower-ranked opponents rather than a fitness or tactical ceiling. The best-of-five format actually softens this weakness. Losing the first set is not losing the match, and Cobolli’s stamina means he gets stronger as matches extend. His comeback against Jodar is the template. Sportsbooks have him around +3500.
With Sinner out, Cobolli carries Italian tennis into Flushing Meadows alone, and he has Turin qualification as a concrete motivational anchor. The draw helps him more than the outright price suggests: his quarter is anchored by Felix Auger-Aliassime rather than by Zverev, Alcaraz or Djokovic, with Fritz the projected fourth-round test and Francisco Comesaña first up. That makes quarter-winner markets the smarter play than the outright — it captures his second-week strengths without requiring him to navigate the entire field. Watch his first two rounds; if he gets through them without dropping serve excessively, that quarter opens up in a way the outright odds do not reflect.
Alexandra Eala
- Career-high WTA ranking of No. 18, age 21, Philippines; seeded 17th, the highest Grand Slam seeding ever held by a player from the Philippines
- Won her maiden WTA title at the DC Open in Washington, defeating World No. 3 Jessica Pegula in the final 4-6, 6-4, 6-0 after an overnight rain suspension — the first WTA Tour singles title for the Philippines
- Defeated Zheng Qinwen, defending champion Leylah Fernandez, second seed Elina Svitolina and third seed Naomi Osaka en route to the Washington title
- Reached the Wimbledon fourth round in 2026, defeating defending champion Iga Swiatek 7-6(9), 6-2 in the third round to become the first Filipino player to reach the second week of a major
- Tied with Elena Rybakina and Svitolina for the most top-10 wins on tour this season; Nike released her first signature supporter shirt ahead of New York, and she signed as a Panasonic Philippines ambassador days before the tournament
- Projected third round against Iva Jovic (14), with Coco Gauff (4) in the fourth round
The Washington title was not a soft-draw fluke. Eala beat the Olympic gold medallist, the defending champion, a former top-five veteran in Svitolina, Naomi Osaka, and then the World No. 3 in the final. Five consecutive wins over players with Grand Slam or Masters credentials, on hard courts, in the same conditions she will face in New York. The final against Pegula told you everything: she dropped the first set, play was suspended overnight by a storm, and she came back the next morning and won the last nine games. That is a player who does not spiral. The overnight break that would derail most young players reset her tactically and she dismantled Pegula with an 84.4% first-serve points won rate and a 55.6% break-point conversion.
Her left-handedness is a genuine tactical weapon, not just a curiosity. Left-handed servers create angles on the deuce side that right-handed opponents see maybe four times a year at the elite level. Combined with a punishing two-handed backhand and flat groundstrokes that stay low on hard courts, Eala forces right-handed baseliners to adjust their entire positioning framework. She landed 64.3% of first serves against Pegula, high enough to keep the World No. 3 off her second ball for two full sets. The giant-slaying credentials are now stacked: Swiatek twice, Pegula, Fernandez, Osaka, Zheng. She is not a one-upset wonder.
The market will suppress her odds because of the workload she has carried through the summer, and because Wimbledon remains her only second week at a major. That is fair on paper, but a 6-0 final set against the World No. 3 does not look like a player running on empty. She has a real hurdle before the headline: Iva Jovic in the third round is a live match between two of the best young players in the draw, and it is not a formality. Clear that, and she gets Gauff in the round of 16, where the public will bet the American heavily. That match-by-match moneyline gap is where the value sits. Eala as a live underdog against Gauff, with her left-handed serve and proven ability to beat major champions, is a bet the casual market will underprice. Back her round by round and let the draw reveal the path.
Sara Bejlek
- WTA ranking of No. 29, age 20, Czech Republic; a left-hander with a two-handed backhand at roughly 1.63 m, one of the smallest players in the top 50
- Reached her maiden WTA 1000 semi-final at the Cincinnati Open on her tournament debut, defeating World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka 7-6(9-7), 6-4 in the fourth round for her first career top-10 win
- Also beat Karolina Pliskova 6-0, 6-2, Barbora Krejcikova 7-6(5), 6-4, Ekaterina Alexandrova 4-6, 6-1, 6-2 and Madison Keys 3-6, 6-4, 7-6(5) — three major champions in a single week — before losing to Coco Gauff 6-4, 6-1 in the semi-finals
- Won her first WTA title at the WTA 500 Abu Dhabi Open in February as a qualifier, beating Alexandrova 7-6(5), 6-1 in the final
- Seeded at a Grand Slam for the first time in her career, at No. 28; opens against Cristina Bucsa with a possible third round against Gauff
Bejlek trailed 5-1 in the first-set tiebreak against the World No. 1, saved it, then went down 4-1 in the second and won the last five games of the match. Two days later she beat a major champion in Keys from a set and a break down. In a single week she defeated three players who have won major titles, having gone 0-3 against top-10 opposition in her entire career beforehand. Keys was dragged into exactly the kind of match she does not want: Bejlek’s lofted, heavy ball and lateral movement pull big hitters out of rhythm and force them to generate pace from uncomfortable positions. At around 1.63 m she has no business being this difficult to put away. That is exactly the point.
Her mental approach is unusually simple, and she says so herself. Asked what had changed after the Sabalenka win, her answer was that she just keeps believing. Most coaches would want something more technical. But it produced a 7-6(5) third-set tiebreak win over a former Australian Open champion after being a set and a break down, and it fits her numbers: coming into the Sabalenka match she had won 16 of 17 matches in 2026 in which she took the first set. Her low centre of gravity lets her absorb pace that would push taller players back, and her left-handed serve creates the same awkward angles Eala exploits, particularly into the body of right-handers in the ad court.
The betting angle here is not outright odds, and it is not blanket set spreads either. Her pattern is well documented: she falls behind early, absorbs the damage and problem-solves her way back, and she covered the spread against Sabalenka and Keys before winning those matches outright. But the draw put the wrong opponent in front of her. Gauff is the projected third round, and Gauff has just beaten her in Cincinnati in 76 minutes, breaking six times from seven chances. Taking +1.5 sets there is backing a rematch the numbers do not support yet. Against the rest of the top-eight seeds the structural argument holds, because the market will price those spreads on ranking and prestige rather than on the reality that this 20-year-old has already taken down the World No. 1. She goes to New York seeded at a major for the first time, with zero pressure and maximum confidence, and that combination is genuinely difficult to price.
Of the five profiled here, Arthur Fils has the strongest form line but the least attractive price-to-draw ratio: +1200 is now a fair number, not a mistake, and Tsitsipas, Shelton and Alcaraz stand between him and a semi-final. Flavio Cobolli at +3500 in an Auger-Aliassime quarter is the better structural play on the men’s side, and Rafael Jodar at +1300 — a 19-year-old who has climbed from No. 165 to the top 12 this season and beaten Fils in both Washington and Montreal — deserves more attention than his profile is getting. On the women’s side, Alexandra Eala’s round-of-16 line against Coco Gauff is the single most exploitable price we can find in either draw. In a tournament without its World No. 1 and with its defending champion four months out of competition, the edge is in match markets, not in outrights.
Odds quoted are FanDuel prices as of 28 August 2026 and are subject to change. This article is for information only. Gambling involves risk. 21+ where applicable; if betting is affecting your finances, relationships or wellbeing, seek support from a problem gambling service in your jurisdiction.