Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen Prediction: 13.01.2026 Bundesliga Preview

As the Bundesliga season reaches its midpoint, Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen face each other in a clash that looks, on the surface, like a clear-cut affair. Yet football has proved countless times that reputations alone do not win matches. Dortmund have been consistent contenders at the Bundesliga summit, while Bremen have found themselves fighting on the fringes, yet recent draws and defensive shifts suggest unpredictability under the Signal Iduna Park lights on Monday night. One point of intrigue: Werder Bremen are nursing one of the league’s most stubborn goal droughts as they attempt to upset a Dortmund side seeking to keep pace with runaway leaders Bayern Munich.

All eyes will be on Dortmund’s versatile midfielder Julian Brandt—his movement between the lines and knack for late runs into the box could well decide the contest. Bremen, on the other hand, lean heavily on captain Marco Friedl’s leadership at the back; his organizational skills will be tested against Dortmund’s dynamic forward line.

The “hot stat”: Bremen have failed to score a single goal in their last five Bundesliga matches, despite averaging almost four shots on target per game—a testament to their offensive woes and a potential turning point if they can break this streak.

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Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen prediction

This fixture points decisively in Dortmund’s favor. Given their recent form—undefeated in the last three and maintaining a solid defensive scheme—Dortmund are likely to assert control both territorially and in possession. Bremen’s defensive unit, while organized, has been stretched and their inability to convert chances has plagued their campaign. The best value lies in backing Borussia Dortmund with a handicap; their home performances and shot creation outstrip Bremen’s output by a considerable margin.

Dortmund prefer a high-tempo, high-possession style, typically outpacing their opponents in both passes completed and passing accuracy (85 percent over their last five). Bremen, in stark contrast, have averaged just 60 percent and struggle to connect midfield to attack, leading to their barren spell in front of goal. Both squads have card histories to monitor—Dortmund with seven yellows, Bremen on five (plus a red each recently), suggesting a physical encounter that may see key moments decided by set-pieces or defensive lapses.

Team Analysis

Analyzing Dortmund’s recent performances, the side has grown into a possession-dominant, tactically disciplined side under Niko Kovac. Their 3-3 draw with a rejuvenated Eintracht Frankfurt showcased resilience amid adversity. Despite shipping three, the attack (with Brandt and Adeyemi regularly acting as creative fulcrums) and defense (anchored by Süle and Schlotterbeck) played with structure and intensity. Prior to that, a decisive 2-0 win over Borussia Monchengladbach highlighted Dortmund’s ability to manage games, transition fluidly, and close out results—hallmarks of a side comfortably second in the standings and hungry to capitalize on missteps from rivals.

For Werder Bremen, the narrative has been bleaker. Their latest goalless draw with St. Pauli extends an unwelcome drought, emphasizing their struggle to convert possession into threat. Despite tidy work by Friedl and occasional bright moments from Schmid and Grüll, Bremen’s inability to produce goalscoring opportunities was glaring. Their prior 0-0 draw with Augsburg, and a 0-4 defeat to Stuttgart, compound the growing sense of a team whose defensive effort cannot compensate for a lack of forward spark. Bremen’s approach under Steffen has been one of containment and work-rate, but unless they break their duck soon, the drop zone may loom.

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🚨Read our full Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Borussia Dortmund the favourite

• Moneyline Borussia Dortmund 1.36 | Werder Bremen 7.80
• Draw 5.25
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.65 | Under 2.5 2.30
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.10 | No 1.65

Dortmund are priced as overwhelming favorites by bookmakers (averaging 70 percent win probability). Given Bremen’s toothless attack and Dortmund’s excellent record at home, it is difficult to justify backing an away upset. The odds for over 2.5 goals still offer value due to Dortmund’s high shot count, though Bremen’s current scoring woes make “No” for both teams to score the statistically-sound play.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Borussia Dortmund possible starting eleven

Dortmund will likely stick to their trusted 3-4-2-1 formation. Kobel remains the reliable last line of defense, with Süle and Schlotterbeck providing a physical, ball-playing presence at the back. The midfield mix of Can’s bite and Nmecha’s technical flair is set to anchor the control, while Brandt and Adeyemi offer penetration and creativity behind Beier, the in-form finisher. Pay close attention to Brandt’s roving runs and Beier’s sharp movement; their chemistry could unlock Bremen’s deep block repeatedly.

Werder Bremen possible starting eleven

Bremen will mirror Dortmund’s 3-4-2-1, but with a focus on compactness and counter-attacks. Backhaus will be under pressure from kick-off, relying on Friedl’s organization and Pieper’s tackling to handle Dortmund’s quick forwards. Schmid and Stage offer the legs and tactical discipline needed in midfield, though Bremen fans will demand more from the forward trio, whose lack of recent goals is a pressing concern. Expect Bremen to set up defensively and look to exploit rare transitions.

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My take on the Match

Given all available evidence, I expect Borussia Dortmund to assert their quality and secure three points in front of their home supporters. With Beier a real handful up front and Brandt enjoying a purple patch, the difference in attacking output is simply a gulf. Bremen’s resistance could frustrate early, but the lack of firepower up top means they are unlikely to break down Dortmund’s disciplined line. I’m backing a 2-0 home win, with the potential for a third if Bremen open up in search of a goal. Should Bremen finally snap their dry spell, it will take something extraordinary from their forwards—unseen in recent weeks. Dortmund’s focus, technical edge, and greater depth should prevail.

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