Rafael Nogueira
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Macara host Santos at Estadio Bellavista in Ambato for the second leg of their Copa Sudamericana 2026 Round of 16 tie. Santos hold a 2-1 advantage from the first leg played in Brazil, meaning Macara must score and avoid conceding to stay alive in the competition. The Ecuadorian side’s home crowd and altitude in Ambato could play a factor, but Santos arrive in strong recent form with Neymar Jr. providing five assists across his last five appearances.
Two players stand out heading into this match. Neymar da Silva Santos Júnior has been the creative engine for Santos, racking up five assists in five games without a goal yet, suggesting he is due a direct contribution. For Macara, Jose Cazares is the midfield conductor with 175 passes in five matches and the most creative output in their squad, making him the key figure if Macara are to build any sustained pressure.
Santos have produced 95 total shots across their last five matches compared to Macara’s 58, a gap that underlines the Brazilian side’s attacking output. Santos also generated 38 corners to Macara’s 16 in that same period.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Copa Sudamericana 2026, Round of 16 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Bellavista, Ambato |
| 🗓️ Date: | 21.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 00:00 CEST |
Macara vs Santos Prediction
Santos enter this second leg with a one-goal cushion and have been the better side statistically across both their recent domestic and continental results. Macara are under pressure to attack from the opening whistle, which may open spaces for Santos on the counter. Santos won the first leg 2-1 and have won five of their last eight matches, conceding just twice in that run outside of their Athletico PR loss.
Macara’s home record offers some hope, with four wins in their last seven matches overall, but Santos’ passing accuracy of 85% (2707 out of 3180) compared to Macara’s 75% (1149 out of 1531) tells a clear story about who controls the ball. Macara commit 81 fouls across five matches versus Santos’ 60, indicating they tend to disrupt rather than dominate. Santos’ 17 yellow cards in five matches matches Macara’s tally exactly, so neither side is particularly disciplined, but Santos have zero red cards in that period while Macara have one.
We predict Santos to advance, with a draw in regulation time being a realistic outcome given Macara’s need to attack and Santos’ comfort with the aggregate lead. Santos to win or draw is the value play here.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Santos to qualify (Santos win or draw) |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Macara have been inconsistent in their recent run, picking up four wins, two draws and one loss in seven matches across the last 30 days. Their last match was a 1-1 draw against Universidad Católica in the Ecuadorian league, a result that did little to build momentum ahead of this second leg. Before that, they fell 1-2 to Santos in the first leg and beat Barcelona SC 2-1 in domestic action. Their 45% win rate across 38 matches this year is modest, and their defensive record has shown vulnerability against better-organized opponents.
Santos have been in solid form, winning five of their last eight matches. Their most recent result was an impressive 3-0 victory over Vasco in the Brazilian league, with Willian Arão and Gabriel Barbosa both on the scoresheet in recent weeks. The only blemish was a 0-2 defeat to Athletico PR, a top-tier Brazilian side. Across 45 matches this year, Santos have a 36% win rate, which reflects a difficult fixture schedule rather than poor quality. Their Copa Sudamericana campaign is the priority now, and coach Cuca will know a draw in Ambato is enough.
🚨Check out our dedicated Macara vs Santos stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Santos the Favourite
- Moneyline Macara 2.44 | Santos 2.89
- Draw 3.34
The bookmakers’ average gives Macara a 39% chance and Santos 33%, with the draw at 28%. Pinnacle’s moneyline of 2.44 for Macara and 2.89 for Santos reflects the home advantage on the night, but the aggregate context favors Santos heavily. The draw odds around 3.25-3.34 represent fair value given Santos’ incentive to sit on their lead. We see Santos advancing as the most probable outcome, and a draw on the night at odds around 3.25 is worth considering as a value bet.
Possible Starting Lineups
Macara Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Rodrigo Rodríguez
- DF: Jairo Jimenez, Marlon Medranda, Denilson Bolanos
- MF: Jose Cazares, Jean Estacio, Matías Miranda
- FW: Darwin Cuero
Macara are expected to line up in a 4-2-3-1, their most used formation across the last five matches. Rodrigo Rodríguez starts in goal, having made 16 saves in five appearances. Denilson Bolanos anchors the left side of defense with four interceptions and six free kicks won. Jose Cazares is the key creative figure in midfield, and Jean Estacio adds an assist and defensive work rate to the engine room. With the tie on the line, coach Guillermo Sanguinetti will need Cazares to unlock Santos’ organized backline.
Santos Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Gabriel Brazão
- DF: Gonzalo Escobar, Luan Peres, Adonis Frías, João Ananias
- MF: João Schmidt, Christian Oliva, Willian Arão, Gabriel Menino
- FW: Neymar da Silva Santos Júnior, Gabriel Barbosa
Santos deploy a 4-2-3-1 as well, with Gabriel Brazão in goal after 13 saves in six matches. Gonzalo Escobar leads the defensive line with nine interceptions and 320 passes, making him the most active defender. The midfield pairing of Christian Oliva (339 passes, five interceptions) and João Schmidt provides a solid base. Willian Arão has scored three goals in six matches from midfield and is a genuine goal threat. Neymar Jr. operates in the attacking midfield role behind Gabriel Barbosa, who also has three goals in six appearances. Coach Cuca is likely to set up defensively early, looking to hit Macara on the counter.
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Macara. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Santos arrive in Ambato with a one-goal lead, superior passing stats, and a depth of attacking talent that Macara will struggle to contain over 90 minutes. Macara’s need to attack from the start plays into Santos’ hands, and their 95 shots in five recent matches versus Macara’s 58 shows the Brazilian side’s ability to punish open play. Willian Arão and Gabriel Barbosa are both in scoring form, and Neymar’s creative involvement makes Santos dangerous on any counter.
We predict a 1-1 draw on the night, which sees Santos advance on aggregate. Both teams scoring is backed by Macara’s home pressure and Santos’ counter-attacking quality. Under 2.5 goals is our total goals pick, given Santos’ defensive discipline when protecting a lead. The corner market leans over 8.5, with Santos generating 38 corners in five matches alone.
