Liam Duckstein
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Serie A 2026/27 kicks off at the Stadio Renato Dall’Ara on 24 August, and this fixture carries real weight from the very first matchday. Bologna, under Domenico Tedesco, host a Lazio side managed by Gennaro Gattuso, whose team arrives in far better recent form. Lazio won four of their last five matches across all competitions in the past 30 days, while Bologna managed three wins from six. The interesting wrinkle here is the head-to-head record: Lazio have won two of the last three Serie A meetings, including a 3-0 win at Bologna last season, yet Bologna thrashed them 5-0 just over a year ago. This is a fixture with genuine unpredictability baked in.
Two players worth tracking closely are Matteo Cancellieri for Lazio and Nicolo Cambiaghi for Bologna. Cancellieri created real problems in Lazio’s most recent outing, registering seven shots and two yellow-card-worthy challenges in under 80 minutes, showing an aggressive, direct style that will test Bologna’s backline. Cambiaghi, meanwhile, was one of the few Bologna attackers to generate any real threat in their last match, taking two shots from a limited platform.
The hot stat from recent games: Lazio produced 21 total shots in their last recorded match compared to Bologna’s five. That is a striking difference in attacking output and points to a significant gap in offensive intent heading into this fixture.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Serie A 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, Bologna |
| 🗓️ Date: | 24.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:30 CEST |
Bologna vs Lazio Prediction
Lazio are the value pick in this match. The bookmakers have Bologna as slight favorites at around 44% implied probability, but Lazio’s recent form is considerably stronger. Gattuso’s side won four of their last five fixtures, scoring freely and conceding rarely, while Bologna’s last five have included heavy defeats to Pisa (1-4) and Brighton (0-1). Lazio also won two of the last three Serie A meetings between these clubs.
Bologna play a 4-3-3 under Tedesco that can be effective at home, but their midfield was outpassed and outworked in recent outings. Lazio’s 4-3-3 under Gattuso is more aggressive in pressing and considerably more active in the final third. The passing volume difference is notable: Lazio completed 550 passes in their last match to Bologna’s 305, suggesting Gattuso’s side will control large portions of this game.
Bologna committed 11 fouls in their last match while Lazio committed 14, so both sides play with a degree of physical intensity. Lazio’s yellow card count (three in the last match) suggests they press hard and foul when pressed. That physical style, combined with their attacking output, makes them dangerous even on the road.
We predict a Lazio win. The away side’s form, their recent head-to-head dominance in Serie A, and their clear superiority in attacking statistics all point in the same direction.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Lazio to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Bologna’s last 30 days produced three wins, two losses, and one draw. The wins came against lower-ranked opposition, including a 3-1 result over Cambuur and a 2-0 win over Iraklis. The defeats against Brighton (0-1) and Pisa (1-4) exposed real defensive and midfield weaknesses. The Pisa result in particular was alarming for a side preparing to open a Serie A season, conceding four goals against a team ranked 743rd in the world.
In their most recent match, Bologna generated just five total shots and two corners. Their pass accuracy of 305 out of 373 attempted passes is decent on paper, but the low volume of attacking actions tells the real story. Tedesco’s side look compact but lack punch in the final third.
Lazio arrive with four wins from five in the last 30 days, including a 6-3 win over Avellino, a 4-0 demolition of Ostia Mare, and victories over Ascoli (2-1) and Frosinone (2-1). Their most recent outing ended in a 0-2 loss to Mantova, which is the only blemish on an otherwise strong pre-season run. That result against Mantova, a side with a strong recent record, may simply reflect squad rotation rather than a genuine dip in form.
Lazio’s attacking numbers are strong. Twenty-one shots and seven corners in their last match, with 550 completed passes out of 636 attempted, shows a team that dominates possession and creates volume. Kenneth Taylor was particularly active with four shots and 72 passes in 90 minutes, and he looks set to be a key engine in Gattuso’s midfield.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Bologna | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 7 | 7 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Bologna vs Lazio stats page for more info.
The last five meetings between these clubs have been remarkably balanced in total goals scored, with both sides netting seven. The results themselves, though, tell a more dramatic story: a 5-0 Bologna win, a 3-0 Lazio win, two 1-1 draws, and a 2-0 Lazio win. There is no consistent pattern in terms of who controls these games, which makes the current form advantage for Lazio all the more meaningful as a tiebreaker.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Bologna the Favourite
- Moneyline Bologna 2.23 | Lazio 3.75
- Draw 3.33
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The odds make Bologna slight favorites at around 2.23, reflecting home advantage and their decent overall season record. Lazio at 3.75 with Pinnacle represents genuine value given their superior form over the last 30 days. The bookmakers’ implied probability of 27% for Lazio feels low for a side that has won four of their last five and holds a positive recent head-to-head record in Serie A. We see Lazio as underpriced here.
Bologna. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Bologna Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Łukasz Skorupski
- DF: Torbjørn Heggem, Eivind Helland, Juan Miranda, Emil Holm
- MF: Lewis Ferguson, Oussama El Azzouzi, Nadir Zortea
- FW: Nicolo Cambiaghi, Artem Dovbyk, Riccardo Orsolini
Tedesco looks set to line up in his preferred 4-3-3 shape. Skorupski is the clear starter in goal. Heggem and Helland provide solidity at centre-back, with Miranda and Holm as the fullbacks. Ferguson and El Azzouzi are the two most active midfielders in recent matches based on pass volume and playing time, with Zortea providing width and energy from the right. Cambiaghi is the most likely wide forward to cause problems, and Dovbyk leads the line as the target striker. Orsolini on the right adds experience and a direct threat.
Lazio Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Christos Mandas
- DF: Oliver Provstgaard, Danilho Doekhi, Alfonso Pedraza, Luca Pellegrini
- MF: Kenneth Taylor, Nicolò Rovella, Fisayo Dele-Bashiru
- FW: Matteo Cancellieri, Boulaye Dia, Mattia Zaccagni
Gattuso’s 4-3-3 looks well-stocked across all lines. Mandas is the confirmed starter between the posts, making five saves in the last outing. Provstgaard and Doekhi form a composed centre-back pairing, with Pedraza and Pellegrini as the fullbacks. Taylor, Rovella, and Dele-Bashiru are the most active midfielders from recent data, with Taylor carrying the most attacking threat from that line. Zaccagni and Cancellieri flank Dia up front. Cancellieri’s aggression and shot volume make him the most dangerous attacking player to watch in this lineup.
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Lazio. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
This is a match where the bookmakers and the form book point in different directions, and to be honest, the form book wins for us. Bologna are priced as home favorites, but their pre-season has included a 1-4 loss to Pisa and a 0-1 defeat to Brighton, and their attacking output in the last match was genuinely poor. Five shots and two corners is not the profile of a team ready to beat a confident Lazio side on matchday one.
Lazio’s attacking numbers are far superior. Their shot volume, pass accuracy, and corner count all point to a team that will press for dominance at the Dall’Ara. Gattuso’s pressing style will put Bologna’s midfield under pressure early, and Tedesco’s side may struggle to build from the back effectively.
We predict a Lazio win, with the match staying under 2.5 goals. Lazio’s defensive structure has been solid in recent outings, and Bologna have shown little ability to convert chances even when they create them. The hot tip of Lazio to win to nil carries risk given the head-to-head history, but the current form differential makes it worth considering at the available odds.
