Liam Duckstein
| Prefer us on Google — see Tips.gg in Top Stories & Discover | Add on Google |
Gian Piero Gasperini’s Roma open their Serie A 2026/27 home campaign against Fabio Grosso’s Fiorentina in what shapes up as a fascinating early-season test. The Stadio Olimpico has been a fortress for Roma in this fixture recently, with the Giallorossi winning three of the last four head-to-head meetings at home, including a 4-0 demolition last season. Fiorentina arrive in better short-term form, though, and that contrast makes the match more interesting than the odds suggest.
Paulo Dybala is the obvious name to watch for Roma. The Argentine has scored four goals in his last five appearances and is operating at a sharp level early in the season. For Fiorentina, Moise Kean carries the attacking threat, having netted twice in his last two outings and looking hungry against top-flight opposition.
A hot stat worth flagging: Roma have registered 46 total shots across their last five matches, averaging over nine per game. That volume of attacking intent, combined with Dybala’s current run of form, points to a side that creates chances at will.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Serie A 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadio Olimpico, Rome |
| 🗓️ Date: | 24.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:45 CEST |
Roma vs Fiorentina Prediction
Roma are the clear favourite here, and the bookmakers back that up with an average implied probability of 58%. The head-to-head record reinforces the case: Roma have won three of the last four Serie A meetings between these sides, with only that 1-5 collapse in October 2024 breaking the pattern. Gasperini’s system generates high shot volumes, and with Dybala in this kind of form, a Roma win feels like the most logical outcome.
We predict a Roma win and back them on the moneyline. Odds around 1.62 to 1.66 represent fair value given the home advantage, the recent H2H dominance, and the quality gap between the squads. Fiorentina at 5.25 to 5.59 reflects how remote an away win really is here.
Roma commit fouls at a relatively high rate across their last five matches, totalling 47 across five games. Fiorentina are much cleaner with just 24, and that discipline could help them stay compact defensively. Roma’s pass accuracy sits at 1,455 out of 1,757 attempted passes, showing a direct, high-tempo style that Gasperini typically demands. Fiorentina’s 664 accurate passes from 744 attempted tells a different story: a more possession-efficient side that plays in shorter bursts. The contrast in styles may produce a nervy first half before Roma’s physical pressure tells.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Paulo Dybala to score anytime |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Roma’s last 30 days have been mixed, with one win, two losses, and two draws from five games. Their most recent outing ended 2-2 against Borussia Dortmund, a result that shows both the quality they can produce and the defensive fragility that persists. Before that, they were beaten 0-3 by Brighton, a result that will have stung. The wins over Newport (4-1) and the chaotic 3-3 draw with Cannes suggest Roma are still ironing out their defensive shape under Gasperini. The 1-4 loss to Cardiff City stands out as a particularly alarming result, though the opponent rating suggests Cardiff were far below Roma’s level, making it a shock result rather than a trend.
Fiorentina have been in noticeably better form over the past month, recording three wins, one loss, and three draws from seven matches. Their last game, a 4-1 win over Benevento, was convincing, and a 2-2 draw with Real Madrid before that demonstrated real quality. Grosso’s side has kept things tight overall: a 1-0 win over Watford and a 1-1 draw with Deportivo La Coruna show a team that can grind results. The 2-3 loss to QPR is the only real blemish, and QPR had a strong recent run of their own at the time. Fiorentina come into this match with momentum.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Roma | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 8 | 6 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Roma vs Fiorentina stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Roma the Favourite
- Moneyline Roma 1.66 | Fiorentina 5.41
- Draw 3.99
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The moneyline odds for Roma at around 1.62 to 1.66 across most bookmakers are consistent with the 58% implied probability. Pinnacle and 3et both offer 1.66, which is the best available price for a Roma win and worth targeting. The draw at 3.99 looks overpriced given Roma’s home record in this fixture. Fiorentina at 5.25 to 5.59 is a long shot, and nothing in the recent data suggests an away win is likely here.
Fiorentina. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Roma Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Mile Svilar
- DF: Devyne Rensch, Gianluca Mancini, Evan Ndicka, Mario Hermoso
- MF: Bryan Cristante, Manu Koné, Neil El Aynaoui
- FW: Matias Soule, Paulo Dybala, Donyell Malen
Gasperini is likely to line up in his preferred 4-2-3-1, with Mile Svilar as the undisputed first-choice keeper after 18 saves across five matches. The back four picks itself: Rensch and Hermoso as the wide defenders, Mancini and Ndicka as the central pair. Cristante anchors the midfield with consistent output, and Koné provides energy alongside him. Dybala operates as the number ten behind Malen, and his four goals in five games make him the most dangerous player on the pitch. Soule’s direct running from the right could cause Fiorentina problems in transition.
Fiorentina Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: David De Gea
- DF: Luca Ranieri, Radu Dragusin, Víctor Valdepeñas Talavera
- MF: Cher Ndour, Nicolo Fagioli, Arthur Atta, Christ Inao Oulai
- FW: Albert Gudmundsson, Moise Kean, Federico Croci
Grosso typically deploys a 3-4-2-1, and the available data supports a back three of Ranieri, Dragusin, and Valdepeñas Talavera. De Gea brings experience and commanding presence in goal, having made five saves across his two recent appearances. Ndour, who scored once and contributed in the press, is an energetic midfielder worth watching. Kean leads the line with two goals in two games and will be Fiorentina’s primary outlet. Gudmundsson adds creativity behind him and has shown he can be unpredictable in tight spaces.
🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅
- Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
- Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
- Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.
Roma. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Roma have the home advantage, the stronger squad on paper, and a clear edge in the head-to-head record. Their 4-0 win over Fiorentina last season at this very ground is recent enough to matter. Gasperini’s side is still finding its defensive rhythm, as the results against Brighton and Cardiff showed, but at the Olimpico against a Fiorentina side that averages far fewer shots and creates less volume, Roma should have enough to control the game.
Fiorentina’s recent form is respectable, and Kean will make Roma’s backline work. We predict both teams to score, with Roma winning the match. The total goals market going over 2.5 also looks well-supported given Roma’s shot volume and Fiorentina’s tendency to stay in games rather than park the bus. Back Roma to win, both teams to score, and Dybala to find the net.
