Sofia Quijada
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Both Malaga and Deportivo La Coruna are back in La Liga after years in the second division, and their first top-flight meeting in the 2026/27 season carries genuine weight. Malaga come into this already on the back foot, having lost their opening league game 0-2 to Atletico Madrid, while Deportivo drew 1-1 with Elche. The interesting angle here is that Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is now leading Deportivo’s attack, adding a name that was not expected in a newly promoted side’s squad.
Aubameyang registered the only goal across Deportivo’s last two matches in the data set and remains the most threatening outlet in Antonio Hidalgo’s side. For Malaga, David Larrubia has been the most active forward in Juan Funes’s 4-2-3-1, generating shots and movement, but the team’s last league outing produced zero goals and just five total attempts.
Hot stat: Deportivo La Coruna attempted 18 shots in their most recent match compared to Malaga’s five, a difference that reflects a significant gap in attacking output between the two sides heading into this fixture.
| 🏆 Tournament: | La Liga 2026/2027, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | La Rosaleda, Malaga |
| 🗓️ Date: | 24.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:30 CEST |
Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna Prediction
Bookmakers price Malaga as narrow home favourites at around 38% implied probability, but Deportivo’s recent form over the last 30 days tells a different story. Deportivo collected two wins and four draws from seven matches, a 29% win rate but with only one defeat. Malaga, by contrast, managed just one win from six, losing twice. Playing at La Rosaleda provides some uplift for the hosts, yet their attacking numbers are genuinely poor right now.
Deportivo’s 5-4-1 shape is compact and hard to break down. Malaga’s 4-2-3-1 gives them width but the team has struggled to convert chances, scoring zero goals in their last La Liga outing. Deportivo commit significantly more fouls (30 in their last match vs Malaga’s 11), which suggests a physical, disruptive approach that could frustrate Malaga’s build-up. Malaga’s pass accuracy from their last match was notably lower, reflecting difficulty constructing attacks under pressure. We predict a tight, low-scoring affair where Deportivo’s defensive solidity keeps Malaga quiet.
- Our main prediction: Draw or Deportivo La Coruna win (Double Chance)
- We predict Under 2.5 goals given both teams’ recent scoring struggles
- BTTS No, with Malaga failing to score in their La Liga opener and Deportivo’s defensive structure holding firm
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Deportivo La Coruna to keep a clean sheet |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Malaga’s last five matches paint a mixed picture. They beat Al Arabi 4-2 and drew with Fulham 2-2 and Al Ittihad 2-2, but their La Liga opener against Atletico Madrid ended in a 0-2 defeat and they also fell 1-2 to Ceuta. The Atletico loss is the most relevant data point: Malaga generated just five shots across that match, had 467 pass attempts but only 395 accurate, and earned a single corner. Their form over the past 30 days reads as one win, two losses and three draws from six games. The squad depth in the final third looks thin, with no individual player registering a goal or assist across the last five matches in the data set.
Deportivo’s recent run is more encouraging. They drew 1-1 with Elche in their La Liga opener, beat Genoa 1-0, and held Fiorentina to a 1-1 draw, only losing to Real Madrid 0-1 in a match where the quality gap was obvious. The draw with Elche was a fair result but Deportivo’s 18 shots in that match show they are creating chances. Over the last 30 days they have taken seven matches, winning two, drawing four and losing just once. Lorenzo Amatucci (one assist, 93% pass accuracy across two matches) is pulling strings in midfield, and Aubameyang provides the focal point up front.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Malaga | Deportivo La Coruna |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 5 | 2 |
The last four meetings between these sides produced two draws (1-1 and 0-0) and one Malaga win (3-0), all in La Liga 2 and La Liga. Malaga lead on aggregate goals across those four games but the scorelines suggest matches that are consistently low-scoring and competitive.
🚨Check out our dedicated Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Malaga the Favourite
- Moneyline Malaga 2.54 | Deportivo La Coruna 3.09
- Draw 2.98
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The moneyline odds price Malaga as mild favourites, which makes sense on home advantage alone. To be honest, Deportivo’s odds around 3.09 represent decent value given their superior recent form and more cohesive defensive structure. The draw at roughly 2.98 also deserves attention: three of the last four head-to-head meetings ended level, and both squads have drawn frequently over the past month. We lean toward Deportivo or the draw offering better value than backing Malaga at these prices.
Malaga. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Malaga Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Alfonso Herrero
- DF: Rafael Garrido Hierro, Carlos Puga, Einar Galilea, José Salinas
- MF: Ángel Recio Gutiérrez, Izan Merino, Carlos Dotor, Dani Lorenzo
- FW: David Larrubia, Carlos Ruiz Rubio
Juan Funes has settled on a 4-2-3-1 in recent matches. Alfonso Herrero starts in goal having made four saves in the Atletico defeat. The back four picks itself from the players with the most minutes logged. Ángel Recio Gutiérrez and Izan Merino form a double pivot, with Dani Lorenzo and Carlos Dotor providing energy in the wider midfield roles. David Larrubia, who generated two shots in the last match and put in 90 minutes, is the most likely player to unlock something going forward.
Deportivo La Coruna Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Leonardo Román Riquelme
- DF: Ximo Navarro, Lucas Noubi, Bright Ede, Giacomo Quagliata, Miguel Loureiro
- MF: Mario Soriano, Lorenzo Amatucci, Diego Villares, Luismi Cruz
- FW: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
Antonio Hidalgo’s 5-4-1 relies on defensive compactness and quick transitions through Aubameyang. Leonardo Román Riquelme has started every match in the data set with eight saves across two games, making him the key figure behind the back five. Lorenzo Amatucci’s 93% pass accuracy and one assist mark him as the creative fulcrum. Mario Soriano covers the most ground in midfield and will be central to disrupting Malaga’s build-up play.
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Deportivo La Coruna. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Malaga’s home advantage is real but their attacking output has been poor, with zero La Liga goals so far and just five shots against Atletico. Deportivo arrive in better shape across the last 30 days, with a compact 5-4-1 that limits space, and Aubameyang as a genuine threat on the break. The head-to-head record strongly favours low-scoring outcomes: three of the last four meetings produced two goals or fewer combined. We predict a draw at 0-0 or 1-1 as the most likely result, with Deportivo La Coruna to claim at least a point from La Rosaleda. The Double Chance covering Draw or Deportivo win is our preferred bet at these odds.
