Sofia Quijada
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Osasuna open their home account at Estadio El Sadar against a Levante side that has already shipped three goals in their La Liga opener. Luis Miguel Ramis’s men enter as clear favorites at around 52% implied probability, and the head-to-head record from last season adds a layer of intrigue: these two teams split their meetings 2-0 and 3-2, so goals are not hard to come by when they meet. Levante’s Australian goalkeeper Mathew Ryan, who made three saves in the most recent available data, will be under pressure early if Osasuna push from the first whistle. On the other side, Levante’s left-back Manu Sánchez was their most active ball-carrier in the last match with 63 passes, and his ability to drive forward could be the visitor’s main outlet on the counter.
Hot stat: Levante’s squad logged 16 free kicks across just one tracked match, the highest single-game free-kick count in the available data for either side, pointing to a pattern of winning set-piece situations that could matter at a ground where Osasuna defend deep.
| 🏆 Tournament: | La Liga 2026/2027, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio El Sadar, Pamplona |
| 🗓️ Date: | 24.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 19:30 CEST |
Osasuna vs Levante Prediction
Osasuna are the value pick here. They won three of their last five matches, beat Levante 2-0 at this ground last season, and Levante arrived in La Liga 2026/27 with a 0-3 defeat to Espanyol. Ramis’s side plays at home, holds a superior recent record against stronger opposition (wins over Ipswich and Racing Santander), and the bookmakers back them at roughly 52%. An Osasuna win is the primary recommendation.
Style-wise, Levante’s available data shows seven fouls in one match and a pass accuracy sitting in the low-to-mid 80s percentage range, which suggests they can be pressed into mistakes. Osasuna, using a 4-2-3-1 shape, should press high and force turnovers in the middle third. Levante’s own 4-2-3-1 will rely on quick transitions, but their recent form away from home has been inconsistent, with losses to Villarreal and Espanyol in their last two away fixtures before this game. That defensive vulnerability makes an Osasuna goal in the first half a realistic expectation.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Osasuna to score in both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Osasuna put together a solid pre-season and early-season run, winning three and losing two of their last five matches. The losses came against Al Ain (0-2) and Napoli (1-2), both stronger opposition on paper. Their wins included a 2-1 result over Norwich, a 2-1 over Ipswich, and a 2-0 over Racing Santander. The Racing Santander win is the most relevant benchmark: it was a competitive La Liga opponent, and Osasuna kept a clean sheet while scoring twice. That clean sheet matters heading into a match against a Levante attack that only managed one goal across their last two La Liga-level fixtures.
Levante’s last five matches produced three wins and two losses. Their most recent result was a 0-3 home defeat to Espanyol in La Liga, which is a significant red flag. Before that they beat Castellon 3-1 and lost to Villarreal 0-1. Their wins over Albacete (2-1) and Al Qadsiah (1-0) came against lower-ranked opposition. The Espanyol defeat is the key data point: Levante were shut out completely, conceded three, and their defensive shape clearly broke down. Luís Castro will need a response, but doing it away at El Sadar against a motivated Osasuna side is a difficult ask.
Levante. Source: Official Facebook
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Osasuna | Levante |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 / 2 | 0 / 3 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Osasuna vs Levante stats page for more info.
The two La Liga 2025/26 meetings tell a split story: Osasuna won 2-0 at home and lost 2-3 away. The home fixture is the more relevant precedent for this match, and Osasuna’s clean sheet in that game reinforces the case for backing them to win and keep it tight defensively.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Osasuna the favourite
- Moneyline Osasuna 1.83 | Levante 4.45
- Draw 3.60
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The average moneyline for Osasuna sits around 1.83, which reflects the 52% implied win probability the market assigns them. Levante at 4.45 is the kind of odds that looks tempting but is hard to justify given their 0-3 La Liga opener and poor away record. The draw at 3.60 is the least attractive option: both teams have identical 60% win rates in the last 30 days, and neither tends to settle for a point. We predict Osasuna at current prices to be the clearest value on the board.
Possible Starting Lineups
Levante possible starting eleven
- GK: Mathew Ryan
- DF: Adrián de la Fuente Barquilla, Aïssa Mandi, Víctor García, Manu Sánchez
- MF: Jon Ander Olasagasti, Oriol Rey, Enzo Bardeli
- FW: Iván Romero, Karl Etta Eyong, Paco Cortés
This lineup is built on the players with the most playing time in the most recent tracked match. Mathew Ryan starts in goal after making three saves. Aïssa Mandi leads the backline with two interceptions and strong passing volume, while Manu Sánchez brings width from left back. Jon Ander Olasagasti anchors the midfield with two interceptions of his own. Luís Castro is likely to use a 4-2-3-1 shape, with Oriol Rey and Olasagasti as the double pivot and Iván Romero operating in the number ten role. Karl Etta Eyong provides a physical option up front.
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Osasuna. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Osasuna at home, with a clean-sheet win over Levante at El Sadar last season and a Levante side coming off a 0-3 collapse, is the most defensible betting position here. We predict an Osasuna win, with both teams scoring reflecting the second leg of last season where Levante scored three at El Sadar away, meaning they are capable of getting on the scoresheet. Over 2.5 goals fits the historical pattern between these sides. The hot tip, Osasuna scoring in both halves, is grounded in their recent attacking output and Levante’s fragile defensive record against La Liga-level opposition this season.
- We predict: Osasuna Win
- Total Goals: Over 2.5
- Both Teams to Score: Yes
- Hot Tip: Osasuna to score in both halves
