Birmingham vs Derby Prediction: 26.12.2025 EFL Championship

As the EFL Championship inches toward the New Year, Birmingham and Derby lock horns at St. Andrew’s in what promises to be a closely contested fixture. Both sides have experienced a roller coaster of form in recent weeks, currently sitting smack in the middle of the standings — separated only by two points. Birmingham, led by Chris Davies, aims to bounce back after a tough home loss, while Derby under John Eustace will look to extend their resilient away performances. With only three points from their last three games each, the implications for the playoff race are clear: three points here could shape the trajectory of the season for either club.

Keep an eye on Demarai Gray for Birmingham, whose two goals and dynamic playmaking have consistently sparked their attacking actions. For Derby, Patrick Agyemang is in impressive form, having scored three times in the last five matches and remaining a constant threat in front of goal.

A standout statistic from previous matches is Derby’s remarkable 59 interceptions over their last five fixtures, which shows their out-of-possession work rate and ability to disrupt opposition build-up play.

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Birmingham vs Derby prediction

The best value for this fixture lies in backing Birmingham on the Asian Handicap (-0.5), given their slightly superior home form and Derby’s inconsistency on the road. Birmingham showed resilience even in defeat to Sheffield United and have several creative avenues in attack. Derby, though effective on the counter and hard-working off the ball, have conceded in each of their last five away games.
In terms of style, Birmingham tends to dominate possession, averaging an impressive 52% pass accuracy with 2063 total passes and 31 corners in their last five matches. Their play is often characterized by sustained pressure but sometimes leaves gaps on the break, evidenced by conceding eight goals in their last five. Derby, meanwhile, have been more direct and transitional, leveraging Agyemang’s pace and benefiting from a disciplined midfield responsible for 59 interceptions recently. Both clubs aren’t shy of physicality, combining for 100 fouls in just their previous five outings. Expect a high-energy affair with plenty of set-pieces and potentially, disciplinary issues.

Team Analysis

Birmingham’s recent run has been patchy, with a heavy 0-3 home loss to Sheffield United their most recent result. Despite controlling large stretches of play and creating shooting opportunities (69 shots over five games), defensive lapses have cost them. The 1-1 draw at Charlton and 2-1 win against Watford demonstrate an ability to bounce back, but conceding goals has become a recurring theme. Set-pieces remain a strength, with Demarai Gray and Patrick Roberts providing consistent threat from wide areas.

Derby also come into this clash on a mixed run. Their most recent 1-1 draw against Portsmouth followed a commanding 3-0 victory against Sheffield Wednesday. However, previous matches have revealed a defense susceptible to lapses against direct attacks evident in their 1-3 defeat to Leicester and 1-2 against Middlesbrough. Patrick Agyemang’s continued goal involvement gives Derby genuine hope up front, while their midfield’s 59 interceptions highlight a group that’s adept at breaking up play and initiating quick turnovers.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Birmingham vs Derby stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Birmingham the favourite

• Moneyline Birmingham 1.80 | Derby 4.57
• Draw 3.50
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.01 | Under 2.5 1.80
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.91 | No 1.90

Birmingham’s odds are justified by home advantage and marginally superior attacking depth. The draw is reasonably short, reflecting how closely matched these sides are. Meanwhile, Derby’s long odds highlight bookmakers’ skepticism further fueled by inconsistent away form. The over 2.5 goals market appeals given defensive frailties on both ends, and with both teams scoring frequently, the BTTS market is rightly balanced near-even odds.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Birmingham possible starting eleven

This lineup leverages consistency and recent match form. Allsop remains undisputed between the sticks with Klarer and Neumann anchoring the backline. Doyle and Paik offer composure in midfield, while Roberts and Stansfield’s creative movement will look to provide service to Demarai Gray up front. Iwata’s energy in the middle could be key to winning midfield duels. Expect Birmingham to maintain their familiar 4-2-3-1 for tactical discipline and attacking width, with Gray as the focal point in a fluid front four.

Derby possible starting eleven

Zetterström’s assured recent showings make him the clear pick in goal. Clarke and Langas have started steadily while Elder and Forsyth add experience on the flanks. Thompson, Ward, and Clark form the trio expected to break up play and launch counterattacks. In attack, Weimann and Blackett-Taylor offer width while Agyemang’s current goalscoring form makes him the main threat up top. Derby are likely to mirror the 4-2-3-1 shape, prioritizing compactness and swift transitions.

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The Verdict

My main pick for this match is Birmingham to win, leveraging home form and attacking momentum led by Demarai Gray and Patrick Roberts. Derby’s ability to press and intercept means they can certainly trouble the hosts, but defensive instability and fewer passing combinations could be costly against Birmingham’s high-tempo buildup. Still, expect both teams to score and for the match to offer a lively contest with set-piece drama and end-to-end phases. Value-seekers might also explore the corners market, given both teams’ frequency of forays into wide areas and resultant corner tallies.

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