Alex MacQuoid
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Six UEFA Nations League fixtures make up the 27-28 September card, and there is a selection on every one of them. Prices run from 1.55 at the short end to 2.01 at the top, a spread that says plenty about how tight the editors expect these games to be, and an odds converter will turn those figures into whichever format you read best. TipsGG publishes free football predictions with pre-match odds for European national-team and club competitions, and three of its analysts split this card: Sports Data Manager Oleksandr Vaskov takes the opening two games, Sports Data Manager Oleksandr Halian the middle pair, and TipsGG Sports & Esports Expert Oleksii Svyrydov the last two. After an opening round that produced a couple of genuine surprises, the group tables are already punishing slow starters, and the football betting tips that follow lean on goal lines, corners and shots on target.
| Match | Market | Odds | Analyst |
| Norway vs Portugal | Norway over 4.5 shots on target | 1.82 | Oleksandr Vaskov |
| Germany vs Greece | Germany over 5.5 corners | 1.77 | Oleksandr Vaskov |
| Northern Ireland vs Hungary | Northern Ireland to avoid defeat (1X) & Under 2.5 | 2.01 | Oleksandr Halian |
| Sweden vs Poland | Sweden to win | 1.90 | Oleksandr Halian |
| Georgia vs Ukraine | Over 2 goals | 1.55 | Oleksii Svyrydov |
| Turkey vs Italy | Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 | Oleksii Svyrydov |
Norway vs Portugal Prediction
Portugal beat Wales, but their efficiency still leaves a lot to be desired. The ageless Cristiano Ronaldo started and shot at goal plenty of times during his 67 minutes on the pitch, without any reward. Once again the attack became hostage to one player, however classy he may be. Sadly, Ronaldo’s best years are behind him. Jorge Jesus knew what he was signing up for when he agreed to coach the national team. You can tweak the details endlessly, but if there is no efficiency up front, problems follow.
Norway are far stronger than Wales, all the more so at home. Stale Solbakken‘s side are happy to play an open game in both directions and score far more than they concede. Erling Haaland, who is right in his prime years, is on a scoring run. Even bad news from Manchester City will not knock him off balance.
Norway have beaten Portugal only once in their history. Right now we have every reason to expect a second win, especially if the Scandinavian attack shows its usual efficiency. Over the past two years almost nobody has been able to stop it.
Prediction: Norway over 4.5 shots on target at odds of 1.82
Germany vs Greece Betting Tips
Jurgen Klopp‘s debut in charge of Germany was mixed, yet by no means a failure. There were plenty of positives, but it also became clear that building the aggressive football he is known for will take considerably more time. Against that backdrop, an away draw with the Netherlands is an encouraging result, though on home soil the demands are clearly higher.
Greece, however, will hardly be a token underdog here. This is a finished project in which everything is in its place. Absentees in the squad are a hindrance, but the team is squeezing the maximum out of what it has. As group leaders, the Greeks are certainly travelling to Augsburg without fear.
Even so, that hardly points to a shock, and historically this fixture has produced almost none. Germany are progressing slowly, and in front of their own supporters they will have extra motivation. It may not be comfortable on the scoreboard, but the hosts will claim a first win under their celebrated coach. And the game itself will not disappoint for quality or intrigue.
Prediction: Germany over 5.5 corners at odds of 1.77
Northern Ireland vs Hungary Odds & Pick
Windsor Park in Belfast hosts a Nations League matchday 2 tie in which the surprise winner of the opening round welcome Hungary, who after defeat by Ukraine are desperate to prove that the setback was nothing more than an unfortunate accident.
Michael O’Neill‘s Green and White Army have already startled football Europe at the start of the tournament, snatching a sensational away win over Georgia (1:0) thanks to Shea Charles‘ goal in the closing stages. Northern Ireland are traditionally a sturdy and awkward opponent, especially on home turf. They deliberately hand possession to the opposition and look for their chances in swift counters and from set pieces, with a reliable defence and a mobile midfield screen the main foundation of the hosts’ success.
Hungary under Marco Rossi began the tournament with a narrow loss to Ukraine (0:1). You could not say the Hungarians looked the worse side — on xG at least they outdid their opponents — but, as the classics say, the result is on the scoreboard.
Northern Ireland know how to squeeze the maximum out of the minimum. Since October 2023 the Green and Whites have lost at home only twice — narrow defeats by Germany in World Cup qualifying and by Slovenia in European Championship qualifying. Against that, they have taken seven wins in official home matches and, notably, did not concede a single goal in any of them. I am confident we are in for a cagey, fiercely contested game in which the hosts will at the very least avoid defeat.
Prediction: Northern Ireland to avoid defeat (1X) & Under 2.5 at odds of 2.01
Sweden vs Poland Preview
The Strawberry Arena in Solna stages a Nations League matchday 2 meeting between two teams who served up a genuine goal feast back in March in a decisive World Cup qualifying fixture.
The Scandinavians under Graham Potter opened the new campaign with a narrow home win over Romania (2:1). Sweden are traditionally strong on their own pitch, where they have lost only twice in their last ten matches across all competitions. The hosts’ main weapon remains a luxurious forward line of Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres, the heroes of matchday 1. That said, less than watertight defending leaves opponents chances of their own.
Poland under Jan Urban could not break down Bosnia and Herzegovina in round 1, settling for a goalless draw (0:0). A side that was competing in League A relatively recently has a solid set of performers led by Robert Lewandowski, yet still lacks consistency. On top of that, this is a grudge match for the Poles and a chance to avenge the painful 2:3 loss in that decisive World Cup playoff.
I expect the story of the March meeting to repeat itself at least in the sense that the hosts win again by one or two goals. At the same time, I have no confidence in a big number of goals this time.
Prediction: Sweden to win at odds of 1.90
Georgia vs Ukraine Match Tips
Georgia began their Nations League campaign with a shock home defeat by Northern Ireland (0:1). Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Georges Mikautadze were so busy competing with each other for the title of second-highest scorer in the national team’s history that between them they wasted three certain goalscoring chances. Khvicha’s missed penalty on 65 minutes only underlined the hosts’ general misfortune in the final third. Georgia played better and looked more assured than their opponents, but conceded in the final seconds of added time, losing concentration and losing track of Shea Charles in the box, who took his moment and beat Giorgi Mamardashvili. After the disappointing start, Ramaz Svanadze replaced Willy Sagnol on the head coach’s bench. The new man inherits a difficult situation, because any further defeat could end their ambitions of qualifying for League A.
Ukraine, by contrast, earned a hugely important and hard-fought win over Hungary in Budapest (1:0). Andrea Maldera sprang a tactical surprise by fielding two forwards, Danylo Sikan and Vladyslav Vanat. Despite Hungary’s edge in shots and xG, Ukraine played with real style and, crucially, real efficiency: they escaped the press with one or two touches and cut off the oxygen the moment their opponents had the ball. Sikan marked his return to the national team with the decisive header after an exquisite delivery from Heorhii Sudakov. In the second half the Ukrainians should have put the game to bed when Krasnopir broke through one-on-one, but the chance went begging, and late on they were down to ten men after the sending-off of Oleksandr Nazarenko, which sparked a mass pushing match by the touchline. Despite constant provocation from Dominik Szoboszlai and his blatant simulation throughout the game, Ukraine proved to the Hungarian captain through their football that they were the more motivated side that day.
The opening matches showed that purely in footballing terms Ukraine should have the upper hand over Georgia even away from home. The only question concerns the physical readiness of the Blue and Yellows, because the Hungary game took a lot out of them, whereas Georgia were the ones dictating their match. In my view both teams will make plenty of defensive mistakes, and those mistakes will lead to goals.
Prediction: Over 2 goals at odds of 1.55
Turkey vs Italy Prediction
Turkey lost their opening fixture to France (0:1). Vincenzo Montella‘s players produced a worthy display against a favourite coached by Zinedine Zidane. The Turks managed 12 shots — exactly as many as their opponents — and regularly threatened Mike Maignan‘s goal from corners (five set pieces). As so often happens in an even game, the side with the higher individual quality comes out on top. France punished Turkey instantly for a misplaced pass at the back, and the Olise–Mbappe combination produced the winner. Late on the hosts of this next game lost their first-choice goalkeeper: Ugurcan Cakir was shown a straight red card for handling the ball outside the box.
Italy suffered a painful home defeat by Belgium (0:2) at a half-empty Stadio Olimpico in Rome. Roberto Mancini‘s return to the bench proved catastrophic. The Azzurri collapsed defensively again and again, especially in the first half, and only captain Gianluigi Donnarumma saved them from an even more embarrassing scoreline. Things were no easier up front: the forward pairing of Moise Kean and Francesco Pio Esposito squandered their chances, at times shooting from point-blank range, yet never managed to beat Belgium’s reserve keeper Senne Lammens, who made six saves and kept a clean sheet. It is a frankly dreadful start for Italy, and for now it looks like another failed tournament for the team.
This game has every ingredient to be surprisingly productive. Both teams are set purely on winning after their poor starts. Turkey’s leaders are in excellent form and, in front of their own supporters, will be ready to punish Italy for their awful defending. At the same time, the attack is the one department of Mancini’s side that can bring a positive result. Despite level pre-match odds, I consider the hosts the favourites here.
Prediction: Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.75
Alternative prediction: Turkey to avoid defeat (1X) at odds of 1.53
Across the six selections the prices sit in a tight band, from 1.55 on the goal line in Tbilisi up to 2.01 on the combined double chance and under in Belfast, with the alternative Turkey option quoted at 1.53. That makes this a card of short, similar prices rather than one standout gamble. A free bet calculator is a quick way to work out potential returns on these selections, whether you take them singly or combine a few of them.
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FAQ
How many picks are in this digest, and which date do they cover?
There are six picks, one for each of the six international fixtures played on 8 September. Every selection is listed with its market and the quoted odds in the table above.
Which selection carries the shortest odds?
The shortest price is 1.55 on over 2 goals in Georgia vs Ukraine. The longest is 2.01 on Northern Ireland to avoid defeat (1X) combined with under 2.5 goals.
Who made the pick for Northern Ireland vs Hungary?
Sports Data Manager Oleksandr Halian, who also covers Sweden vs Poland. His reasoning centres on Northern Ireland’s home record since October 2023, which includes seven official wins without conceding.
What markets do these picks use?
The six expert football predictions cover two total goals lines, shots on target, team corners, a straight home win and a double chance combined with under 2.5 goals. Turkey vs Italy also carries an alternative option, Turkey to avoid defeat at 1.53.
Are any Nations League matchday 2 games included?
Yes. Northern Ireland vs Hungary at Windsor Park and Sweden vs Poland at the Strawberry Arena are both Nations League matchday 2 fixtures, and Georgia vs Ukraine also comes from the same competition.