Liam Duckstein
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San Marino welcome Albania in matchday two of League C Group 1, and on paper this looks about as one-sided as fixtures get in this competition. San Marino head coach Roberto Cevoli shares a surname with defender Michele Cevoli in his own back line, a small family-flavoured detail in a squad that has managed just one goal across its last several outings.
Albania arrive fresh off a 2-0 win over Belarus and sit second in the group, while San Marino were thumped 0-7 by Finland in the opener. Rolando Maran’s side should have few problems repeating that scoreline, though how many goals they actually convert against a stubborn, deep-lying San Marino block is the real question here.
Kristjan Asllani pulls the strings for Albania from a deep-lying role, spraying passes with the highest accuracy on his side and already carrying a goal into this game. On the other side, Nicola Nanni is San Marino’s most used forward and the one player capable of a rare shot on target if the hosts ever get out of their own half.
Hot stat: San Marino have failed to score in four of their last five matches and have shipped 12 goals in that same stretch, a defensive record that makes Tuesday’s task against Albania look daunting before a ball is even kicked.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Nations League 2026/27, League C Group 1 |
| 🗓️ Date: | 29.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:45 CEST |
San Marino vs Albania prediction
We predict an Albania win, and by a comfortable margin. San Marino have not beaten a team of Albania’s calibre in years, and the gulf in quality shows up everywhere in the numbers, from passing volume to shots on target. Backing Albania on the moneyline at the prices on offer feels like the obvious lean, but perhaps the smarter angle is the total goals market given how porous San Marino’s rearguard has looked recently.
San Marino’s approach under Cevoli is built around damage limitation. Their fouls and cards stay low simply because they rarely get near the ball long enough to commit them, and their pass accuracy figures confirm a side that struggles to string more than a few passes together. Albania, by contrast, dominate possession, work the ball through the middle via Asllani and Ramadani, and generate far more shot volume and set-piece opportunities. That style mismatch should translate into a lopsided scoreline once more.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | San Marino to fail to score (No goal) – Yes |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
San Marino’s form line reads almost entirely losses, with just two draws breaking up a run of defeats stretching back years. Their last outing summed up the season: a 0-7 hammering by Finland where they managed a single shot all match and lost every individual duel in midfield. Before that, back-to-back 1-2 defeats to Azerbaijan and Bangladesh showed at least some fight in attack, but against a side of Albania’s standard that resistance rarely lasts. In our preview of San Marino vs Finland we called a comfortable Finland win paired with over 3.5 goals as the headline pick, and the 0-7 result delivered it in full.
Albania go into this one having snapped a five-match losing run with a 2-0 win over Belarus, a result built on Asllani and Muci sharing the goals and Ramadani anchoring midfield. Before that win, though, four straight losses against Luxembourg, Israel, Ukraine and Poland exposed a side that struggles to score against organised opponents, even if they rarely look troubled defensively. In our preview of Albania vs Belarus we called Belarus to avoid defeat with goals at both ends, and the 2-0 result went against us.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
San Marino and Albania have no recent competitive meetings on record between these two sides, so there is no head-to-head trend to lean on for this preview.
🚨Check out our dedicated San Marino vs Albania stats page for more info.
San Marino. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Albania the favourite
- Moneyline San Marino 35.00 | Albania 1.05
- Draw 11.00
The bookmakers give Albania an 86% implied chance of victory, and honestly the numbers match what we see on the pitch. San Marino at odds north of 30.00 is not a price we would touch, and even the draw at 11.00 looks generous given how rarely San Marino manage to hold a clean sheet against sides above their level. The market has this one right, and we see little reason to fight it.
Possible Starting Lineups
San Marino possible starting eleven
- GK: Mirco De Angelis
- DF: Alessandro Tosi, Marco Pasolini, Michele Cevoli, giacomo benvenuti
- MF: Lorenzo Capicchioni, Marcello Mularoni, Lorenzo Lazzari
- FW: Nicola Nanni, Nicholas Giacopetti, Samuel Pancotti
Cevoli tends to stick with a 4-3-3 shape even when facing far stronger opposition, prioritising a compact block over any real attacking ambition. Tosi and Pasolini played the full 90 minutes last time out and should anchor the back four again, while Nanni remains the one attacker asked to do anything creative up front.
Albania possible starting eleven
- GK: Etrit Berisha
- DF: Elseid Hysaj, Berat Djimsiti, Ardian Ismajli, Stavros Pilios
- MF: Ylber Ramadani, Kristjan Asllani, Ernest Muci, Arber Hoxha, Taulant Seferi
- FW: Rey Manaj
Maran should stick with the 4-2-3-1 that worked against Belarus, with Ramadani and Asllani screening the back four and feeding the front three of Muci, Hoxha and Seferi. Manaj leads the line and looks the most likely candidate to add to his goal tally given the space San Marino tend to concede centrally.
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Albania. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Albania to win comfortably, with the total goals landing over 2.5 and San Marino once again failing to find the net. The hosts have not scored in four of their last five matches, and nothing in their squad list suggests that changes against a side sitting second in the group table. Albania’s own scoring struggles keep us away from a heavy over on goals like 3.5 or 4.5, but a routine two or three-goal win looks the most probable script. To be honest, there is little value in overthinking this one: class gaps this wide rarely produce surprises.
Read also: San Marino vs Albania Head-to-Head: Record, Stats & Form as of 27 Sep 2026
Read also: San Marino vs Albania Team News and Predicted Lineups: Who Starts?
