Sofia Quijada
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Spain host Croatia in a rerun of Group 3, a fixture that already carries weight after both sides opened this Nations League campaign with wins. Spain beat England 3-2 while Croatia edged Czech Republic 2-1, leaving both teams tied on points and goal difference at the top. The intrigue here comes from the last competitive meeting between these nations, a 3-0 Spain rout at Euro 2024 that still lingers over Bilic’s squad. Luis de la Fuente’s side arrives unbeaten in its last 11 matches, and a home crowd expecting goals should get them given how open both defenses have looked lately.
Lamine Yamal remains the player defenses fear most, already contributing a goal and constant chance creation in Spain’s win over England. On the other side, Luka Modrić keeps dictating tempo from midfield at an age when most players have slowed, scoring in Croatia’s last outing and still Bilic’s chief creative outlet.
Hot stat: Spain have won five straight internationals while conceding just three goals combined, a defensive record that contrasts sharply with Croatia, who have shipped multiple goals in three of their last five games, including a 2-4 defeat to England.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Nations League 2026/27, League A Group 3 |
| 🗓️ Date: | 29.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:45 CEST |
Spain vs Croatia prediction
Spain look the far sharper side on paper, and at odds close to 1.19-1.28 depending on the bookmaker, a straight win bet offers little value on its own. We prefer combining that expectation with goals, since Spain scored three past England and Croatia have found the net in four of their last five games too. Backing Spain to win alongside over 2.5 total goals feels like the smarter route, and duelbits’ 1.28 line on the home win represents the best price currently on the market.
Spain’s discipline stands out defensively, picking up zero yellow cards in their last outing against just 16 fouls committed, while completing passes at roughly 89% accuracy. Croatia foul less often, just nine fouls in their last match, but their pass accuracy sits closer to 87% and they conceded a card, suggesting a slightly more reactive setup against a possession-heavy opponent. That gap in control should let Spain dominate territory, forcing Croatia into transition moments where Perišić and Budimir can still hurt them on the counter.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Spain to win both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Spain’s last match against England ended 3-2, a scoreline that flattered the visitors somewhat given how the game played out, with Yamal, Oyarzabal and Baena all getting on the scoresheet. That result stretched Spain’s unbeaten run and continued a pattern of controlled wins over strong opposition, following similar narrow victories over Argentina, France, Belgium and Portugal. In our preview of England vs Spain we called a Spain win built on their tight defense and perfect recent form, and the 3-2 result delivered exactly that.
Croatia’s last outing brought a 2-1 win over Czech Republic, with Marco Pašalić and Modrić sharing the goals. It capped a mixed run that includes four losses in their last 15 matches, most notably that 2-4 defeat to England, showing Bilic’s side can be exposed defensively against sides who press high. In our preview of Czech Republic vs Croatia we backed Croatia to edge the contest via double chance, and the 2-1 win confirmed that call.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Spain | Croatia |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 0 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Spain vs Croatia stats page for more info.
Croatia. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Spain the favourite
- Moneyline Spain 1.19 | Croatia 12.33
- Draw 7.24
Bookmakers price Spain as an overwhelming 79% favourite, and the odds reflect that gap in current form and squad depth. Croatia’s price near 12.00-15.00 looks fair given their leakier defense, though their away threat through Perišić and Budimir keeps a shock outcome technically live. We see little draw appeal here, the market’s 14% implied probability undersells how directly Spain tends to convert territorial control into goals.
Possible Starting Lineups
Spain possible starting eleven
- GK: Unai Simon
- DF: Marc Pubill, Pau Cubarsí, Aymeric Laporte, Marc Cucurella
- MF: Rodrigo Hernandez, Fabián Ruiz, Nico Williams, Daniel Olmo, Lamine Yamal
- FW: Mikel Oyarzabal
De la Fuente sticks with the 4-2-3-1 that has worked in five straight wins. Rodrigo and Fabián Ruiz shield the back four, letting Olmo and Yamal roam freely behind Oyarzabal. Yamal remains the player to watch, already directly involved in a goal last time out and Spain’s most dangerous carrier in the final third.
Croatia possible starting eleven
- GK: Dominik Livaković
- DF: Josip Stanišić, Josko Gvardiol, Luka Vuskovic, Ivan Smolcic
- MF: Mateo Kovačić, Petar Sučić, Ivan Perišić, Luka Modrić, Luka Sučić
- FW: Franjo Ivanovic
Bilic mirrors Spain’s 4-2-3-1, trusting Kovačić and Petar Sučić to control midfield tempo while Modrić operates just behind Ivanovic. Perišić’s 90 minutes and an assist in the last game make him a persistent outlet down the left, and he is the man most likely to punish any lapse from Spain’s advancing fullbacks.
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Spain. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Spain to win comfortably, perhaps by two goals given how their attack has clicked in recent fixtures. Croatia’s tendency to concede against sharper opposition, paired with Spain’s near-90% pass accuracy and control in midfield, points toward a repeat of the type of scoreline we saw at Euro 2024. To be honest, Croatia’s own attacking depth through Modrić and Perišić should still produce a goal or two, making both teams to score alongside a Spain win the angle our staff leans toward most.
Read also: Spain vs Croatia Head-to-Head: Record, Stats & Form as of 27 Sep 2026
Read also: Spain vs Croatia Predicted Line-ups and Team News: Both Expected XIs
