Almeria vs Malaga Prediction: 20 June 2026 La Liga 2 Promotion

This is a promotion playoff decider between two Andalusian sides who have already drawn 0-0 in the first leg at this same stage. Almeria and Malaga are locked on five points apiece at the top of the promotion mini-table, meaning this second leg at the UD Almería Stadium carries direct promotion implications. The first meeting between these two in this phase produced no goals, and the tension of a winner-takes-all context makes attacking intent far from guaranteed. One player to watch is Stefan Džodić, who has contributed a goal and ten interceptions across the last five matches for Almeria while logging every minute of those games. For Malaga, David Larrubia leads the attacking line with two goals in his last six outings and a team-high 14 shots, giving Juan Funes a genuine focal point in the final third.

Hot stat: Malaga have gone unbeaten in their last six matches across all competitions (three wins, three draws), conceding only one goal in that run, which came against Almeria in the regular season.

Almeria vs Malaga Prediction

The first leg finished 0-0, and nothing in either side’s recent data suggests a sudden attacking explosion is coming. Almeria scored six goals across their last five matches but conceded three in one game against Sporting Gijón, showing defensive vulnerability when pressed. Malaga have scored five goals in five games, with their two most productive attackers, Larrubia and Carlos Ruiz Rubio, combining for four of those. The playoff format, the previous 0-0 meeting, and the high-stakes nature of promotion all point toward a tight, disciplined match.

We predict the draw at full time as the most valuable outcome. Malaga’s unbeaten six-game run and Almeria’s home advantage cancel each other out in a playoff context where neither side can afford to lose. Almeria commit significantly more fouls (89 total in five matches versus Malaga’s 76), accumulate more yellow cards (15 to Malaga’s 7), and have lower pass accuracy, which suggests a more physical and direct approach. Malaga, with 2,748 passes and 85% pass accuracy, control games more patiently and are less likely to be drawn into the kind of open game that would suit Almeria. The disciplinary gap is notable: Almeria’s aggression could lead to set-piece opportunities for Malaga and disrupt their own rhythm. Both teams have shown they can defend when it matters, and the corner market favors Malaga, who generated 28 corners in five matches against Almeria’s 20.

Team Analysis

Almeria enter this second leg having won two, lost two, and drawn two of their last six matches, a 33% win rate in that window. Coach Rubi’s side beat Castellón 3-2 and drew 1-1 with them in back-to-back matches, then followed a 1-0 win over Real Valladolid with a 1-3 loss to Sporting Gijón before the 0-0 draw in the first leg. The Gijón defeat remains the one alarm: Almeria conceded three at home, suggesting they can be opened up when opponents press with pace. Sergio Arribas leads with two goals and is the most active midfielder in terms of passing volume, while Džodić anchors both the defensive and attacking midfield phases.

Malaga’s last six matches produced three wins and three draws with zero defeats. They beat Las Palmas 1-0, drew 1-1 with them in the next meeting, beat Real Zaragoza 2-0, drew 1-1 with Racing Santander, and then drew 0-0 with Almeria in the first leg. The 2-0 win over Zaragoza showed their ability to control and close out matches when the structure is right. Carlos Ruiz Rubio leads with two goals and 15 shots, while Larrubia also has two goals and the most lost balls on the team, reflecting his aggressive forward running. Malaga’s low yellow card count (7 in five matches) reflects a composed, disciplined squad that does not give away cheap free kicks.

Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches

These two sides have met eight times in recent history, including two 0-0 draws in the current promotion phase. Malaga have won three of those eight meetings, Almeria two, with three draws. The most recent competitive meetings before this playoff produced a 3-2 Almeria win in the regular season and a 1-2 Malaga win before that, showing both sides can score when the stakes are lower. The playoff context has so far suppressed goals entirely.

🚨 Check out our dedicated Almeria vs Malaga stats page for more info.

Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability: Almeria the Favourite

• Moneyline Almeria 2.09 (avg) | Malaga 3.30 (avg)
• Draw 3.33 (avg)
• Over/Under Over 2.5 — | Under 2.5 —
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — | No —

The bookmaker average gives Almeria a 45% win probability, which reflects home advantage and their slightly stronger regular season record. Malaga’s 28% win probability looks undervalued given their six-game unbeaten run, zero defeats in that span, and the fact they already held Almeria to a 0-0 in the first leg. The draw at 3.33 average represents good value in a playoff match where both teams have strong defensive structure and a lot to lose. Almeria’s home odds around 2.09 are reasonable but not compelling given Malaga’s form.

Possible Starting Lineups

Almeria Possible Starting Eleven

Rubi has been consistent with his 4-2-3-1 setup across the last five matches. Andrés Fernández starts in goal with 21 saves across the period, the most of any Almeria keeper. Rodrigo Ely and Federico Bonini form the central defensive pairing, with Muñoz and Centelles as full-backs who contribute going forward. Džodić is the standout in midfield with ten interceptions and ten shots, combining defensive and attacking duties effectively. Sergio Arribas, with two goals and 206 passes in the period, is the creative engine. Adrián Embarba leads the forward line with a goal, an assist, and 14 shots. Watch Džodić and Muñoz as the most active contributors across all phases.

Malaga Possible Starting Eleven

Juan Funes also deploys a 4-2-3-1. Alfonso Herrero starts in goal with 13 saves and one yellow card, the most active keeper in the squad. Diego Murillo leads the defence with 390 passes and eight interceptions, functioning almost as a third midfielder when Malaga build from the back. Carlos Dotor and Izan Merino anchor the double pivot, with Dotor contributing an assist and 227 passes. Dani Lorenzo provides width and a goal threat from the right. Larrubia leads the attack, and his direct running and six lost balls show he is willing to take players on. Carlos Ruiz Rubio, with two goals and 15 shots, may push for a starting spot depending on the tactical shape Funes selects for this decisive match. Murillo and Dotor are the players to watch for controlling possession and tempo.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

This match has the hallmarks of a second leg where neither team wants to be the side that blinks first. The first leg 0-0 set the tone: both defenses held firm, and neither coach showed willingness to open the game up. Almeria’s higher foul count and yellow card total suggest they will be physical at home, but Malaga’s passing superiority and disciplined structure make them hard to break down. Malaga’s 18 offsides in five matches show they push their attackers into advanced positions aggressively, which creates risk but also pressure on the Almeria backline.

We predict a draw at full time, with under 2.5 goals and corners going over 8.5 as the supporting markets. To be honest, the value in this match sits with Malaga not losing rather than Almeria winning, and the draw reflects that balance accurately. If the game goes to extra time or penalties, Malaga’s composure and unbeaten run give them a slight edge, but the 90-minute prediction remains a draw.

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