Almeria vs Cadiz Predictions: Odds and betting tips for La Liga 2 Match - 16.11.2025

On November 16th, 2025, Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos in Almeria will host a critical La Liga 2 encounter between Almeria and Cadiz. Kick-off is at 17:15 CEST, with both sides entrenched in the promotion race during the 2025/26 regular season. Under Rubi’s stewardship, Almeria currently sits just one point above Cadiz, making this contest pivotal in shaping the early promotion battle. Stadium atmospheres in southern Spain brim with intensity and anticipation, and given both teams’ recent form, we can expect a contest steeped in tactical caution and flashes of attacking ingenuity.

Among the players likely to shape this tie, attacking midfielder Sergio Arribas (Almeria) stands out for his recent creativity, notching a goal and two assists in his last four outings—he is the architect behind Almeria’s most incisive passages of play. Meanwhile, Roger Martí (Cadiz), with two goals in his last five, brings physical presence and clinical finishing, spearheading Cadiz’s transition play.

A “hot stat” to note: Cadiz have amassed an astonishing 13 yellow cards in their last five matches, underlining the combative nature of their midfield and the tactical fouls used to disrupt opposition rhythm.

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Almeria vs Cadiz predictions

My best bet: Almeria to win (Home victory). The hosts are on a six-match unbeaten run and have found rhythm in the final third, with four wins and two draws in their last six fixtures. Their recent victory over Eibar showcased a team with the right blend of attacking verve and defensive solidity, while Cadiz has managed only one win from their last five. With the crowd behind them and a sharper ball circulation (Almeria’s 868 passes with 78 percent accuracy vs Cadiz’s 1502 with just under 70 percent), expect Almeria to dictate the tempo and find enough breakthrough moments.

Tactically, Cadiz’s aggressive pressing and high foul count (80 fouls in five games) could hurt them, particularly against an Almeria side that thrives on quick passing sequences. The 13 yellow cards collected by Cadiz recently signal the risk of disruption and potential suspensions, weakening their midfield resistance. By contrast, Almeria’s balanced approach (just seven yellows, tactical flexibility in their 4-2-3-1 formation) complements their current momentum. Expect a contested but controlled display from the hosts, with Cadiz’s occasional lapses in defense likely to be exploited on transitions.

Prop picks by me:

• ⚽Total Goals: Under 2.5
• 💥Both Teams To Score: No
• 🎯Total Corners: Over 9.5

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Almeria vs Cadiz Most recent H2Hs

The balance of previous meetings tilts slightly towards Cadiz, who claimed a narrow 2-1 away win last season before drawing 1-1 and losing 1-6 in earlier encounters. Historically, matches between these rivals have featured tactical chess, compact midfields, and moments of individual brilliance. While Almeria’s home advantage did not pay dividends last time, their recent offensive efficiency suggests a potential shift. The 2023 6-1 result however remains an outlier—a testament to Almeria’s capacity to unlock Cadiz when rhythm and confidence align.

🚨Read our full Almeria vs Cadiz stats for more analysis.

Key Stats

• Cadiz have drawn three of their last five away matches 0-0.
• Almeria average 1.4 goals per game over their last five, compared to Cadiz’s 0.8.
• Cadiz have received more than double the yellow cards of Almeria in the last five matches (13 vs 7).
• Almeria have not lost at home this season (four wins, two draws).
• Cadiz have scored only four goals in their last five fixtures.
• Almeria’s pass completion rate (78 percent) is comfortably above the league average.

Almeria vs Cadiz score prediction: 2-0

Expect Almeria to assert control from the outset, leveraging the technical craft of Sergio Arribas behind the striker line and the pace of Adrián Embarba out wide. Defensively, the likes of Álex Muñoz and Daijiro Chirino have been consistent in limiting opposition threats. Cadiz’s reliance on direct, physical play may yield a few openings, but Almeria’s structured build-up and superior ball retention should see them through with a clean sheet.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Almeria the favourite

Bookmakers underscore Almeria’s home favoritism (56 percent win probability on average), with strong odds on the win. The over/under reflects expectations for a tightly fought contest—unsurprising given Cadiz’s recent offensive struggles and defensive tenacity. Betting “No” for Both Teams To Score or Under 2.5 Goals aligns with both sides’ recent fixtures. Almeria’s doctrinal home performances give them the edge, while Cadiz’s discipline issues (high fouls/yellows) add further risk.

Almeria vs Cadiz Over/Under Analysis

• Almeria’s last three home games: Under 2.5 goals cashed 2/3 times.
• Cadiz has featured in four 0-0 or 1-0 results during their last five league outings.
• Both sides combine for under 2.5 goals in over 60 percent of recent matches.
• Expect set pieces to play a significant role—both teams average above seven corners per game.

Almeria Preview

Almeria enters this fixture in a buoyant mood following a 3-1 triumph over Eibar, continuing their unbeaten streak and underscoring gains in both attack and cohesion. The evolution of Rubi’s tactical plan is evident: a sharp central press restricts opponents’ time on the ball, while quick, incisive transitions yield high-quality chances. Arribas Calvo and Embarba have been instrumental, and the defense, anchored by Chirino and Bonini, has shown growing assurance. In their last five matches, Almeria has outshot opponents, dominated passing metrics, and conceded just three goals.

Almeria possible starting eleven

Cadiz Preview

Cadiz travels to Almeria having drawn two consecutive matches 0-0, reflecting a well-drilled but limited offensive framework under Gaizka Garitano. Their defensive discipline is clear, but this has come at the expense of attacking risk—the team has struck just four times in five outings. Roger Martí leads the forward line, supported by Ontiveros and Iuri Tabatadze, yet service has often been sparse. Frequent midfield fouls have been both a blessing (in disrupting stronger sides) and a curse (mounting cards and suspensions). This match will test Cadiz’s ability to withstand pressure and respond on the break.

Cadiz possible starting eleven

Our prediction: Who Wins?

Informed by current trajectories, tactical frameworks, and momentum, our main pick is for Almeria to secure a controlled victory, building on their unbeaten home run and superior technical orchestra in midfield. The TipsGG AI prediction engine assigns Almeria a 60 percent win probability, highlighting both squad depth and recent execution as major factors. While Cadiz’s defensive resolve cannot be ignored, expect Almeria to tip the balance through tempo and set piece efficiency.

How to watch Almeria vs Cadiz

When?
16 November 2025, 17:15 CEST
Where?
Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos, Almeria
How to watch: {streaming options}.
Favorite: Almeria.

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