Alianza Petrolera vs Deportivo Pasto Predictions: Odds and betting tips for Primera A Match - 02.04.2026

The Apertura phase of Colombia’s Primera A delivers another high-stakes fixture as Alianza Petrolera take on Deportivo Pasto at the Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau in Valledupar. Kick-off is scheduled for 02 April 2026 at 00:10 CEST, setting the stage for a pivotal contest that could shape both teams’ fortunes in the 2026 campaign. With both sides demonstrating contrasting trajectories this season, anticipation runs high amid the passionate local crowd expected at this storied venue.

Two influential figures to watch are Andrey Estupiñán (Deportivo Pasto), whose clinical finishing has propelled his side’s attacking play, and Fabián Cantillo (Alianza Petrolera), a midfield dynamo tasked with orchestrating transitions and disrupting opposition buildup.

Hot stat: Deportivo Pasto have scored 9 goals in their last five matches—more than twice Alianza Petrolera’s tally in the same stretch.

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Alianza Petrolera vs Deportivo Pasto predictions

Me best bet: Deportivo Pasto Draw No Bet.

Deportivo Pasto’s superior form—winning 67 percent of their last six matches and netting 9 goals over their past five outings—contrasts sharply with Alianza Petrolera, whose win rate across the last 13 matches stands at a mere 15 percent. Pasto’s forward line, spearheaded by the in-form Estupiñán, has shown efficiency and dynamism, while the defense, under the guidance of coach Jonathan Risueño, has remained disciplined. Alianza Petrolera, though disciplined in midfield, have struggled with a -13 goal difference this Apertura and have relied on low-scoring, high-intensity encounters.

Tactically, both teams line up in a 4-2-3-1, favoring organized pressing and transitional play. Alianza Petrolera average 12 yellow cards in their last five matches, suggesting a propensity for tactical fouling that could disrupt rhythm but risks disciplinary issues. Deportivo Pasto’s 15 yellows and 4 reds over their last five show they walk a fine line between aggression and recklessness, yet their higher shot and corner counts (22 corners to Petrolera’s 17) point to more consistent offensive pressure and set-piece danger. Expect midfield battles and a physical contest, but Pasto’s attacking prowess may tip the outcome in their favor.

• ⚽Total Goals: Under 2.5
• 💥Both Teams To Score: No
• 🎯Total Corners: Over 8.5

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Reviewing their last three direct encounters, the fixture has proven balanced and fiercely contested, evidenced by a 3-3 draw, a narrow 1-0 win for Alianza Petrolera, and a 1-0 triumph for Deportivo Pasto. Notably, both sides have demonstrated an ability to disrupt each other’s rhythm, with only one of these matches featuring more than two goals, highlighting defensive discipline and parity in head-to-head clashes.

🚨Read our full Alianza Petrolera vs Deportivo Pasto stats for more analysis.

Key Stats

• Deportivo Pasto have outscored Alianza Petrolera 9-4 in goals over their last five matches.
• Pasto produced 73 total shots in their last five matches, compared to Alianza’s 42.
• Both teams average double-digit yellow cards in their last five outings—Pasto (15) and Petrolera (12).
• Alianza Petrolera have scored only 7 goals in 13 Apertura matches, the second-lowest in the league.
• Pasto have four red cards in their last five matches—discipline could sway this contest.
• Pasto average 22 corners in their last five games; Petrolera, 17.

Alianza Petrolera vs Deportivo Pasto score prediction: 0-1

Given Alianza Petrolera’s offensive struggles and Deportivo Pasto’s current attacking momentum, a tightly contested match with few clear-cut chances is anticipated. Estupiñán’s form for Pasto and Cantillo’s midfield discipline for Petrolera will be decisive. Ultimately, Pasto’s superior offensive metrics and form, combined with Alianza’s propensity for hard-fought, low-scoring draws, point to a narrow away win: 0-1.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Alianza Petrolera the favourite

Bookmakers set Alianza Petrolera as a slight favorite, despite Pasto’s superior record. This is likely influenced by home advantage and a perception that Petrolera’s disciplined style may frustrate Pasto, who are susceptible to bookings and cards. However, statistical indicators—including recent form, shot production, and goalscoring—suggest Pasto offer exceptional value, particularly in draw no bet or double chance markets.

Alianza Petrolera vs Deportivo Pasto Over/Under Analysis

• Four of Alianza Petrolera’s last five games featured under 2.5 goals.
• Pasto have averaged 1.8 goals per game in their last five, but Petrolera’s defense traditionally lowers match tempo.
• Given Petrolera’s low average goals, under 2.5 remains the preferred option.
• Pasto’s last five: three matches ended with exactly two goals or fewer.

Alianza Petrolera Preview

Alianza Petrolera’s recent campaign has been characterized by defensive grit but offensive anemia. Collecting only 2 wins in their last 13 matches, they recently edged Deportivo Cali and Jaguares de Cordoba 1-0, yet failed to build momentum, losing narrowly to Aguilas Doradas. With just 4 goals scored in the last five outings and a league-low 7 in the Apertura, their struggles up front are glaring. Fabián Cantillo has been instrumental in the center, providing structure, though creative contributions remain sparse. Their 4-2-3-1 formation, while balanced, lacks incisiveness in the final third.

Alianza Petrolera possible starting eleven

Deportivo Pasto Preview

Deportivo Pasto enter this clash brimming with confidence, registering victories in four of their last six matches and consistently troubling defenses with 9 goals in their last five. Their balanced 4-2-3-1, centered on possession and high pressing, has unlocked Estupiñán’s scoring touch and Diego Gabriel Chavez’s late runs. While their aggressive approach leads to frequent cards—15 yellows and 4 reds in just five games—it is a testament to their intensity and willingness to press their edge. Their most recent outing against Atletico Nacional saw them lose 1-2 but compete toe-to-toe with the league’s top side, suggesting readiness for another tough away challenge.

Deportivo Pasto possible starting eleven

Our prediction: Who Wins?

As the match approaches, our expert panel at TipsGG leans towards Deportivo Pasto securing a narrow away victory. Backed by a 60% season win rate and anchored by the attacking dynamism of Estupiñán, Pasto offer superior form, greater tactical adaptability, and more reliable scoring output. Alianza Petrolera’s home advantage and defensive discipline should not be underestimated, but without significant attacking improvement, their prospects dim. Our AI prediction engine assigns Pasto a 43% win probability, Petrolera 36%, and a 21% chance of a draw—underscoring the value in backing the visitors.

How to watch Alianza Petrolera vs Deportivo Pasto

When? April 2, 2026, kick-off at 00:10 CEST.

Where? Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau, Valledupar.

How to watch: Check official Primera A broadcasters and licensed online streaming platforms in your region for live coverage.

Favorite: Alianza Petrolera (bookmakers slight rating as home favorite).

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