Algeria vs Burkina Faso Prediction: 28.12.2025 Africa Cup of Nations

As Group E moves into its pivotal second matchday at the Africa Cup of Nations, Algeria meet Burkina Faso at Rabat’s Stade Moulay El Hassan on 28 December 2025. Both sides come in riding the momentum of opening-game victories, with Algeria’s confident dispatching of Sudan complemented by Burkina Faso’s narrow but resolute win over Equatorial Guinea. While Algeria might boast the weight of historical success and squad depth, Burkina Faso have shown recently that they are a side to be reckoned with, especially in the electric atmosphere of African international football.

All eyes will be on Riyad Mahrez, whose experience and flair remain instrumental for Algeria, and Burkina Faso’s Dango Ouattara, who pulled strings with a crafty assist in their opener. In a clash where midfield battles and defensive discipline could tip the scales, these creative sparks might prove decisive.

“Hot stat”: Algeria have racked up 49 total shots across their last five matches – a remarkable attacking volume, underlining their high-press, forward-thinking style!

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Algeria vs Burkina Faso prediction

The bookmakers have Algeria as the clear favourite here, and with good cause. Petkovic’s side showed defensive steel as well as cutting edge with a 3-0 opening win, while their attacking statistics – highest in the group for shots taken and goals scored – place them firmly in the driver’s seat. Burkina Faso did demonstrate resilience in fighting off Equatorial Guinea, but with only 16 shots across their last five matches and modest ball progression, questions remain about their ability to trouble a confident Algerian defence over 90 minutes.

Expect Algeria’s control in midfield to keep Burkina Faso on the back foot for sustained spells, particularly with the likes of Mahrez and Bounedjah ready to exploit any defensive frailties. However, Burkina Faso’s efficiency in their opener warns against complacency – their set-piece threat and counter-attacking speed through Dango Ouattara and Bertrand Traoré make them a classic tournament dark horse.

From a disciplinary and style perspective, Algeria have committed 16 fouls and picked up 5 yellow cards in their last five games, a sign of their uncompromising approach in duels; Burkina Faso, meanwhile, have been far tidier (just 2 fouls and 1 yellow card in that span). Algeria’s dominance in shots (49 to 16), corners (28 to 9), and possession (over 73 percent pass accuracy) indicate a side that presses and recycles ball fast—ideal for creating chances but vulnerable to a swift break. Still, with margins this fine, set-pieces or a single explosive moment could yet shape the outcome.

Team Analysis

Algeria come into this fixture in fine form, having dispatched Sudan 3-0 in their opener – a classic display of controlled, attacking football. Mahrez opened the scoring with his trademark composure, while Bounedjah and Boudaoui added gloss to an energetic showing. In their previous five matches, Algeria’s attack has been ruthless (11 goals), their passing game sharp (2516 passes at 73 percent accuracy), and defensive numbers solid, save for an uncharacteristic 7-8 goal-fest defeat to the UAE that can be chalked up to rotation and tactical experimentation. The return of key starters since then has reestablished their structure. Their 4-2-3-1 formation ensures control in midfield and width down the flanks, epitomised by thunderous full-back runs from Atal and Bensebaini.

Burkina Faso have fared strongly, but sample size for their recent official matches is slimmer, boasting a 2-1 victory over Equatorial Guinea that showcased both defensive resolve and attacking opportunism. Traoré and Ouattara were prominent, with Georgi Minoungou’s clinical finishing proving vital. Their previous five matches show modest attacking stats (2 goals, 16 shots), but high efficiency when they get chances. Leaning on a similar 4-2-3-1 system, Burkina Faso rely heavily on set-piece proficiency and quick transitions through Bertrand Traoré and Dango Ouattara – but they will need to find more creativity if they are to unlock an Algeria defence that did not concede last time out.

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🚨Read our full Algeria vs Burkina Faso stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Algeria the favourite

• Moneyline Algeria 1.86 | Burkina Faso 4.48
• Draw 3.31
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.08 | Under 2.5 1.77
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.45 | No 1.50

The bookmakers’ odds underline Algeria’s clear superiority, reflected in both recent form and squad depth. Their overwhelming shot numbers, coupled with a clean sheet in the opener, suggest defensive confidence and attacking impetus. Burkina Faso, while a credible threat, have shown a tendency to struggle converting opportunities into goals – the price on “No” for both teams to score reflects this. The odds on Over 2.5 goals and the Asian handicap both look inviting considering Algeria’s firepower and Burkina Faso’s occasional defensive lapses.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Algeria possible starting eleven

There are not many surprises here, with Petkovic likely to stick to the 4-2-3-1 shape that has provided both attacking dynamism and defensive solace. Luca Zidane brings composure in goal, backed by an experienced defensive core led by Bensebaini and Tougai. The midfield platform is built on Bennacer’s deep-lying control and Mahrez’s creative threat drifting in from the right. Boudaoui and Chaibi add energy between the lines, while Bounedjah remains a focal point for both set-pieces and open play. Mahrez and Bounedjah are the ones to watch – both in electric form, each capable of deciding the contest.

Burkina Faso possible starting eleven

Burkina Faso are expected to stick to a solid back four with Tapsoba and Dayo marshalling the centre. Koffi’s experience in goal will be vital under pressure. The midfield blend has workrate and ball-winning ability in Toure and Sangare, while Aziz Ki offers a creative outlet. Out wide and up front, much rests on Bertrand Traoré’s ability to link transitions and Ouattara’s pace in behind. Expect a compact 4-2-3-1 that looks to break quickly – if they can spring the press, Burkina Faso will be dangerous in open space.

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My take on the Match

This one tilts in clear favour of Algeria. Their superior attacking structure, star quality and the discipline instilled by Petkovic have set them up for another deep AFCON run. Burkina Faso will battle gamely and may threaten on the counter, but Algeria’s ability to suffocate teams in midfield and create a relentless stream of chances should prove too much. My pick? Algeria to win, likely by at least a two-goal cushion – unless Traoré or Ouattara can conjure something sensational on the break!

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