Liam Duckstein
Let’s break down Oleksandr Usyk’s chances of winning the upcoming rematch against Daniel Dubois, and how the odds have shifted since their first bout.
On July 19, 2025, at the legendary Wembley Stadium in London, Ukraine’s Oleksandr Usyk — who holds the WBA, WBC, and WBO heavyweight titles — will step into the ring once again as the favorite, facing off for the second time against British former world champion Daniel Dubois.
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Usyk’s Pre-Fight Odds According to Bookmakers
Bookmakers’ and experts’ opinions on Usyk’s chances before the first fight against Dubois fluctuated, but a few days before the bout, the Ukrainian’s triumph was estimated at 70–75%.
Given Usyk’s victory in the first bout, it’s no surprise that his chances have increased going into the rematch. Here are the current odds for Usyk vs. Dubois 2:
- Usyk to win – 1.20
- Dubois to win – 4.85
Interpreting these odds, Usyk’s chance of victory is now estimated at 80–85%. In other words, while bookmakers clearly favor Usyk more than before, there’s still no absolute certainty in his win.
Also read: Usyk vs Dubois 2: Date, Time
Usyk’s Chances of a Knockout Victory in the Rematch
It’s also worth examining the line for a stoppage victory. In the first bout, Usyk not only stunned his opponent but scored a knockdown in the 9th round. Many experts argue the referee had every reason to stop the fight and award Usyk a TKO.
Looking at the betting platform GGBET, we find the following line:
- Usyk to win by KO, TKO, or opponent disqualification – 1.80
Translating that into probability terms, Usyk’s chances of an early finish in the rematch are estimated at 55–60%.
Usyk’s Probability of a Decision Victory
Just like in the first bout, bookmakers believe that if Usyk wins, it’s most likely via decision. While his knockdown in the initial fight shifted the odds slightly, a judges’ verdict is still considered the most probable outcome for a Usyk victory.
- Usyk to win by decision or technical decision – 2.55
Converted into percentage probability, that gives Usyk around a 40% chance of winning by decision.
Also read: Usyk vs Dubois 2 Odds
Will There Be a Knockdown in the Usyk vs. Dubois Rematch?
It’s also important to evaluate the likelihood of a knockdown in the rematch. In their previous bout, one knockdown was officially recorded.
At the time of writing, GGBET’s line for a specific Usyk knockdown is not available, but there is another market to consider:
- Total knockdowns over 0.5 – 1.59
This line suggests a 60–65% probability of at least one knockdown occurring during the fight — from either boxer.