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The closing round of the Nations League group stage falls on 15-16 November 2026, and every fixture on the slate still has something to settle. Playoff places in Division A remain up for grabs, relegation to Division B has already claimed its early victims, and the fight to stay among the elite goes down to the final whistle. Six expert football predictions make up the set — three from Oleksii Svyrydov, TipsGG Sports & Esports Expert, and three from Oleksandr Halian, Sports Data Manager. Prices run from 1.64 on goals to 4.42 on a red card, and any of them can be converted into another format with our odds converter. TipsGG publishes free football predictions with pre-match odds for the Nations League and every other major competition.
| Match | Market | Odds | Analyst |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium vs Italy | Total goals over 2.5 | 1.64 | Oleksii Svyrydov |
| Spain vs England | Total goals over 3 | 2.01 | Oleksii Svyrydov |
| France vs Turkey | France to win & both teams to score (Yes) | 2.36 | Oleksandr Halian |
| Croatia vs Czech Republic | Croatia not to lose (1X) & both teams to score (Yes) | 1.99 | Oleksandr Halian |
| Greece vs Serbia | Greece to win & total under 3.5 | 2.23 | Oleksandr Halian |
| Germany vs Netherlands | Germany to win by 1 goal or draw | 2.11 | Oleksii Svyrydov |
Belgium vs Italy Prediction
The atmosphere in Group 1 of Division A is white-hot. Belgium approach the decisive home Nations League fixture third in the group with 9 points from five matchdays. Last time out the Red Devils ground out a 2:1 away win over Turkey, in which Arda Guler fired in a stunning free kick, though well before the break Belgium had already seized the decisive advantage through goals from Kevin De Bruyne and Charles De Ketelaere — a result that lifted them to within one point of the Italians and the French. Milan defender Koni De Winter is likewise unavailable after a row with the head coach, while Romelu Lukaku, the team’s leader, is still recovering from a thigh injury, and first-choice goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois will be replaced by Senne Lammens, who has worked himself into decent form.
Italy top the group with 10 points, edging France on tiebreakers. In the last round the Azzurri beat France 3:1 despite a costly early concession that came from a Gianluigi Donnarumma error — the goalkeeper gifted Michael Olise the ball right in front of his own box with the defenders caught cold. Roberto Mancini‘s side play attacking football and lead their group in goals scored by a distance (11 goals in 5 matches), but an extremely tough away test against motivated Belgians awaits them for a playoff ticket.
My eye in this match fell on the over. Both sides are used to playing first and foremost to their strength — attack. Despite his considerable age for the role, Kevin De Bruyne masterfully conducts the Belgian midfield, time and again cutting open defences with incisive passes, while the Italians, for their part, have hit top rhythm after a poor first two matches and are confidently outplaying even sides as strong as France.
Prediction: Total goals over 2.5 — odds 1.64
Spain vs England Prediction
Spain head into the final round of the Nations League group stage as the undisputed leaders of Group 3 with a maximum 15 points from five matches. Last time out the Spaniards won 2:0 away over Czechia thanks to goals from Alex Baena (from the penalty spot) and Marc Pubill, and that despite the absence of several key men such as Lamine Yamal, Dani Olmo and Rodri. Luis de la Fuente‘s team play balanced, dominant football, and the winning run is striking: the last time La Furia Roja lost an official match was to Portugal and Cristiano Ronaldo in the Nations League final in June 2025. Since then Spain have added a World Cup triumph and cemented their status as the No. 1 team in the world ranking.
England sit second in the table with 12 points, three behind the Spaniards. Last round the Three Lions ground out a hard-fought home win over Croatia (2:1), in which Harry Kane, converting a penalty, set a new national record for appearances for the national team (126). Thomas Tuchel and his men have had time to work on the mistakes of the previous head-to-head with La Furia Roja, where the founders of the game led at half-time and had a chance to double the advantage straight after the break — but Kane missed a penalty, and in the end the Spaniards ran out 3:2 winners.
This is, without question, the headline fixture of the entire group stage. Even though both teams have already secured their playoff tickets, they can still fight for first place in the group. I expect a spectacular, high-scoring contest.
Prediction: Total goals over 3 — odds 2.01
France vs Turkey Prediction
In the fixture of the final round of the Nations League group stage, France will host Turkey at the Stade Atlantique — a side who will start next season in a lower division. The French, led by Zinedine Zidane, come into the game on the back of the first defeat of the legend’s reign: on Matchday 5 Les Bleus lost 1:3 to Italy despite an early goal from Michael Olise. As before the previous match, France have certain squad problems with a number of players unavailable (including Kylian Mbappe and Aurelien Tchouameni), yet the nearest men in reserve still look capable of beating an opponent who is plainly botching the season. France need only pick up points to guarantee their passage to the next round.
Turkey are going through a difficult period. Last round the Turks fell to a painful 1:2 defeat against Belgium despite Arda Guler‘s masterpiece of a free kick. Turkey have now lost several matches in a row and have already lost all chance of keeping their place in the elite division of the Nations League, dropping into Division B.
France at home, even with the squad losses, look the obvious favourite. All that is left for Turkey is to play their last match in Division A. The only question is whether the Turks will want to slam the door loudly on the way out. I believe the visitors will find their moment in front of Marc Maignan‘s goal, but the obvious favourite will still take the match.
Prediction: France to win & both teams to score (Yes) — odds 2.36
Croatia vs Czech Republic Prediction
At Opus Arena, in the final round of the Nations League group stage, the group’s underachievers meet. This fixture will answer the question of which of the two will play in the top division next and who must settle for the one below. Both sides arrive for the head-to-head with long losing streaks — four and five matches in a row respectively.
Slaven Bilic‘s men are enduring a difficult calendar year, having set a string of unwelcome anti-records for defeats and goals conceded. Last round the Vatreni went down 1:2 to England despite Petar Sucic‘s goal and the efforts of Luka Modric. Before the final round Croatia sit third in the group, and a draw will be enough to complete the task of keeping their place in the division.
Czech Republic, coached by Santi Denia, found themselves in a tight spot well ahead of time, losing five matches in a row in the current Nations League campaign. Last time out the Czechs lost to the reigning world champions Spain (0:2), finishing the game a man down after Ladislav Krejci‘s dismissal. To avoid direct relegation from the elite division, the Czechs need nothing less than a win in Osijek.
Croatia, just like the Czech Republic, are going through hard times football-wise. Given the age of the leaders, a generational change awaits both teams, and it is unlikely to bring phenomenal results straight away. Right now, though, it is Osijek that will decide who plays the rebuilt squad in the division below and who stays in the elite. Thanks to home advantage and a higher-quality pool of players, it is Croatia who look the favourite of the meeting, especially since a draw suits them too. The Czechs have no option but to go looking for fortune in front of the opposing goal, and I believe they are fully capable of scoring. I expect a lively match with goals at both ends and the favourite avoiding defeat.
Prediction: Croatia not to lose (1X) & both teams to score (Yes) — odds 1.99
Greece vs Serbia Match Predictions
At the Pantessaliko stadium, Greece — with just the final step left to a historic Nations League playoff — will host Serbia, who have already been ignominiously relegated to a lower division. Greece, coached by Ivan Jovanovic, followed a string of bright displays with a shocking, painful 0:7 defeat to the Netherlands — one of the heaviest in the country’s history. Even so, the Greeks hold second place in the group with eight points and have excellent chances of reaching the playoffs. To avoid depending on the result of the parallel fixture, the Greeks simply need to win at home.
Serbia, coached by Ivan Jovanovic, prop up the table without a single point, with five defeats in a row. Factor in the friendlies and the run is even longer — seven straight losses.
Since the Nations League was launched, Greece have climbed up from Division C, and now only the final push to the playoffs remains. For the first time since the Euro won in 2004, the Hellenes can genuinely count themselves among the trophy contenders. I expect a Greek win against hopeless Serbs with the game total under 3.5. I would also not rule out a sending-off in this game, given the hot-tempered character of both teams.
Prediction: Greece to win & total under 3.5 — odds 2.23
Alternative prediction: Red card in the match — odds 4.42
Germany vs Netherlands Prediction
Germany, coached by Jurgen Klopp, have so far been beating only Serbia with any conviction, as happened last round (3:1). Die Mannschaft dominated the pitch, and nobody shone brighter than Florian Wirtz, who capped the evening with a spectacular goal. Thanks to that win Germany have 8 points after five matchdays and are level on points with the Greeks, who currently sit second. Their position is complicated, though, by the fact that Greece hold the edge in the head-to-heads, and with the Greeks facing the group’s outsiders in the parallel fixture, the Germans have only one route left — beating the Oranje.
The Netherlands lead the group with 11 points and are showing fantastic firepower. Last round the Oranje handed Greece a genuine rout (7:0), with Tijjani Reijnders the star of the show after a hat-trick. Xavi Hernandez‘s men, in the traditionally Spanish manner, were careful with the ball, dominated possession, and 14 of their 17 shots found the target, creating 4.41 xG from 8 big chances. That statistic resonates especially with the most recent head-to-head against Die Mannschaft, where the Oranje at the Johan Cruijff ArenA held a fair share of the play but never turned it into the result, drawing 1:1.
Personally, I like the football of the Netherlands a great deal more at the moment. Of course, a weighty reason why the hosts go off as favourites of the pairing is that a win is their only chance to break into the playoffs, and the home walls of the Olympiastadion should drive the favourites forward. So, factoring all this in, I lean towards the match finishing level or with a narrow edge for Die Mannschaft.
Prediction: Germany to win by 1 goal or draw — odds 2.11
From 1.64 on goals to 4.42 on a red card, the six selections span totals, result markets and discipline, with everything in between priced from 1.99 to 2.36. Anyone planning to stack these picks into an accumulator can work out the potential returns with our free bet calculator before the first kickoff.
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FAQ
Which competition do the picks cover?
All six selections come from Division A of the Nations League and belong to the final group-stage matchday on 15-16 November 2026. Belgium vs Italy and France vs Turkey come from Group 1, Spain vs England and Croatia vs Czech Republic from Group 3, while Germany vs Netherlands carries Germany’s only route into the playoffs.
Who made the picks in this digest?
Three selections are the work of Oleksii Svyrydov, TipsGG Sports & Esports Expert, and three come from Oleksandr Halian, Sports Data Manager. Every pick is published with its market and pre-match odds.
Where can I find Nations League predictions for the final round?
The six selections for 15-16 November 2026 are published above with the reasoning behind every pick. The shortest price is the 1.64 on over 2.5 goals in Belgium vs Italy; the longest is the 4.42 on a red card in Greece vs Serbia.
Are these football betting tips free?
Yes. TipsGG publishes the six picks for 15-16 November free of charge, each with its recommended market and pre-match odds. TipsGG Premium is a separate paid product built on mathematical data analysis.
What is at stake in the final round?
Playoff places in Division A are still open, and Belgium trail Italy and France by a single point. Turkey and Serbia are already relegated to Division B, while Croatia vs Czech Republic decides who else goes down — Croatia survive with a draw, the Czechs need a win. Germany, meanwhile, must beat the Netherlands to reach the playoffs.