On August 21, the decisive play-off round of the Conference League begins. This is where we’ll find out which teams will get their chance to make a name for themselves on the European stage. This will be a fight not just for a result, but for prestige, as many of the teams playing in Europe’s third-tier tournament don’t have much international experience. However, there are also a number of clubs that many fans know well. Let’s have a look at what to watch for in the first-leg bets for the Conference League play-off round.
Rosenborg vs Mainz
In this matchup, bookmakers have installed the German club as a slight favorite. But Rosenborg has its own arguments—and there are plenty of them.
Although Mainz is a Bundesliga representative, they are nowhere near the level of Bayern or Bayer. Bo Henriksen’s squad hasn’t played an official match in three months. Just last weekend, the “Karnevalsverein” played a DFB-Pokal match, but their opponent was a newcomer to the 2. Bundesliga, so it’s hardly fair to call that a serious test. Mainz had a modest transfer window: only free, lesser-known players arrived, and a few loanees returned. An additional minus for the Germans was the loss of last season’s top goalscorer, Jonathan Burkardt.
At the same time, Rosenborg strengthened with the Slovak striker Ďuriš, and they also have Dino Islamović in the squad, the Scandinavians’ top scorer with 8 goals in 15 matches. Additionally, they brought back academy product Aslak Witry on defense. The Scandinavians also benefit from match fitness: Rosenborg has been playing in their domestic league and European competitions since the spring.
And while Mainz scored a lot of goals in the summer, those were all friendlies. In this particular match, I expect a hard-fought game from both teams.
Match bet: Total Goals Over 2.5 with odds of 1.84
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Noah
Olimpija is in a transitional phase between one head coach and another. Under Jorge Simão, the start of the new season for the Slovenian champions was mixed: after a 5-0 home loss to Celje, the team was taken over by Dutchman Edwin van de Looi, who made his European debut with Olimpija in the return leg against Egnatia. The team is unstable and doesn’t inspire confidence, but what they definitely have is attacking firepower.
Noah unexpectedly lost to the Gibraltar club Lincoln in the Europa League, losing at home in the return leg in a penalty shootout. And now the Yerevan team must gather their strength to reach the main stage of the Conference League.
Like most teams, Noah looks good with home support but has problems in away European matches. Therefore, we predict a difficult win for the home side in a high-scoring match.
Match bet: Olimpija Ljubljana to Win + Total Goals Over 1.5 with odds of 3.0
Polissya vs Fiorentina
Polissya, led by Ruslan Rotan, has already gone through two rounds of Conference League qualification. In the previous round, there was some drama: after a convincing 3-0 victory in their nominal home match against Paks, the Zhytomyr team was close to a collapse, trailing 2-0, but in the end, everything worked out well. At the same time, Polissya has shown defensive problems over a sustained period, and they face a serious opponent ahead.
Fiorentina is a long-standing participant in the late stages of the Conference League. The “Viola” enter the new season with a new head coach, Stefano Pioli, which signals increased ambitions. The team’s squad has been retained, and their preseason work was successful—only one loss in five matches. All that remains is to avoid underestimating Polissya.
We assume that the Italians will win the first match. We expect goals, maybe even from the home side, which will make the match even more intense.
Match bet: Total Goals Over 2.5 with odds of 1.72
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Servette
Shakhtar approaches the first match with Servette in stable form: Arda Turan’s team has not lost this season, although they failed to overcome Panathinaikos in the third round of Europa League qualification. The main advantage of the “Miners” remains the balance between attack and defense: in nine official matches, they have kept seven clean sheets and have only conceded to Beşiktaş in European competitions. The situation with Kevin remains uncertain, as he may soon move to Fulham; the loss of Ocheretko and Traoré’s injury complicate their attacking tasks. However, the infirmary is gradually emptying, and their overall form allows Shakhtar to meet their opponent as the favorite.
Servette is trying to emerge from a crisis: a series of failures in the league and European qualification was broken up by a decisive cup victory over Dardania, which is hardly an indicator of progress. The arrival of Gourvennec has somewhat revitalized the “Grenats,” but adaptation to his demands is still ongoing.
Against the backdrop of a disciplined and organized Shakhtar, Servette’s chances look modest: the coach’s experience can help, but the advantage in form is clearly on the side of the Ukrainian team.
Match bet: Shakhtar Handicap (-1.5) with odds of 1.98
Strasbourg vs Brøndby
Strasbourg underwent a serious overhaul in the summer transfer window. Andrey Santos and Djordje Petrović returned after their loan spells with Chelsea, and they earned more than 30 million euros from the sale of Habib Diarra. In the match against Metz, Strasbourg made history by fielding a squad where all the players were born in the 21st century, but they still won. The young French squad has a good bench and room for rotation.
Brøndby is currently second in the Danish league after five rounds, but they looked unconvincing away against very modest opponents in the Conference League: the 1-1 draw in the first match against Tórshavn stands out, as does the embarrassing 3-0 loss in the first leg against Víkingur.
There is every reason for them to fail here as well—in the match against Strasbourg, the Danes are unlikely to overcome their problems in away European matches.
Match bet: Strasbourg Individual Total Goals Over 1.5 with odds of 1.62
Crystal Palace vs Fredrikstad
Crystal Palace lost their place in the Europa League because the club has a common owner with Lyon, who also qualified for Europe’s second-tier tournament. It’s an unpleasant moment, but hardly a critical one, as the club has already won two trophies in 2025: the Eagles added the FA Community Shield in August to their FA Cup victory in May. Over the weekend, Palace took points from the current club world champions, Chelsea, at the start of the English Premier League season. It must be said that Crystal Palace is a formidable force right now, despite losses due to injuries. Yes, the team has no experience in European competitions, but they have the support of their fans and daily competition in one of the strongest leagues in the world. Of course, rumors still swirl around Eze’s future, but in the qualifiers, this world-class player will be able to help the team.
As for Fredrikstad, they are also inexperienced in European competitions. As a reminder, the Norwegian club got into the Europa League by winning last season’s Norwegian Cup. And it was in the Europa League that two matches against Midtjylland showed that the difference in the teams’ level is too great.
It’s hard to imagine what the Norwegians can show in London, besides the lack of pressure for a result. We assume that Crystal Palace will get a convincing home victory.
Match bet: Crystal Palace Individual Total Goals Over 1.5 with odds of 1.62