Udinese vs Bologna Prediction: 22.11.2025 Serie A 2025/26

When Udinese welcome Bologna to the Dacia Arena on November 22nd, we’re not just looking at a clash between two established Serie A sides, but at a fascinating encounter pitting a gritty, transitional Udinese against an upwardly mobile Bologna. With both teams deploying similar 4-2-3-1 formations, the tactical battle will be fierce. This match is especially intriguing given Bologna’s recent surge up the table versus Udinese’s home resilience, and with both having played out two consecutive draws in their previous head-to-heads, the stakes for a victor could not be higher.

For Udinese, the dynamic Nicolo Zaniolo continues to be the heartbeat of the midfield, notching up 2 goals in his last 4 appearances and providing the creative impetus behind much of their forward play. Meanwhile, Bologna’s Santiago Thomas Castro has quietly established himself as one of Serie A’s most reliable strikers, finding the net 3 times in his last 5 matches—a true game-changer in tight encounters.

Perhaps the “hot stat” to note: Bologna have gone unbeaten in their last 7 matches across all competitions (4 wins, 3 draws), showcasing remarkable consistency and defensive solidity—only 8 goals conceded across 11 league games, best among Serie A’s top five.

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Udinese vs Bologna prediction

The shrewdest play in this fixture appears to be leaning towards a Bologna victory or a Draw No Bet in their favour. Why? Bologna’s unbeaten run, attacking variety, and defensive maturity, under Vincenzo Italiano, outpace Udinese’s more volatile form. While Udinese can be resilient at home, their negative goal difference (-5) and a return of just 4 wins from 11 matches underscore a side struggling for rhythm. In contrast, Bologna not only sit 5th with a strong +10 goal difference but are excelling in both ball retention and transitional play.

Expect a match where possession is hotly contested. Bologna average more passes and a superior accuracy (2208 passes at 1869 completed in the last 5 matches at ~85%) compared to Udinese (1401/1109, ~79%), suggesting greater midfield control. However, Bologna’s more assertive style comes at a disciplinary cost, with 10 yellows in the last 5 (2 reds—a point to watch for in live bets), while Udinese themselves are no shrinking violets with 8 yellows. The cumulative effect? Likely open spaces, chances on the counter, but also regular disruptions due to fouls (66 committed by Bologna, 53 by Udinese in last 5). We expect an energetic, technically-competitive duel—one with a decent goals tally but margins fine enough that backing Draw No Bet on the visitors feels safest.

Team Analysis

Udinese enter this contest with a mixed run of form— two wins, two defeats, and a draw in their last five. Their most recent outing was a statement 6-2 victory over Primorje, with Zaniolo and Buksa lively throughout. Prior to that, however, Udinese struggled to finish off Roma and succumbed to a 2-0 loss, failing to make their possession count. Defensive lapses have plagued them—just one clean sheet in their last five—the backline remains a work in progress under Kosta Runjaic’s stewardship.

Bologna, conversely, are riding a resilient wave. Their last match, a controlled 2-0 win over Napoli, displayed everything good about Italiano’s blueprint: compact defending, rapid vertical play, and Castro’s clinical finishing. Even in their slightly duller 0-0 against Brann, Bologna never looked out of sorts. With three wins and two draws in their last five, Bologna’s blend of youth and experience seems to be clicking at just the right time. Defensive discipline and transitions through the likes of Ferguson and Freuler have been standout.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Udinese vs Bologna stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Bologna the favourite

• Moneyline Udinese 3.75 | Bologna 2.13
• Draw 3.22
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.02 | Under 2.5 1.82
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.85 | No 1.95

Bookmakers have marked Bologna as favourites, which in light of their offensive momentum and defensive shape makes considerable sense. Udinese’s bigger odds reflect their home struggles, despite the big win last match. The prices for Over 2.5 and BTTS indicate expectations for a lively encounter, yet market consensus is wary of Udinese shutting out the in-form visitors. With Bologna’s run and Udinese’s volatility, there’s little doubt why the away win market is preferred, but the draw offers fair value given recent head-to-head stalemates.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Udinese possible starting eleven

Runjaic is likely to stick with the familiar 4-2-3-1 that brings Zaniolo into a central creative role just behind Buksa, who has been Udinese’s sharpest point in attack recently. The defence, anchored by Kabasele and Solet, will need to move as a tight unit; Kamara’s overlapping forays and Ehizibue’s pace on the flanks are vital for both width and cover. Watch closely for Zaniolo’s surges into the box and Karlstrom’s ability to link play—both could tilt the balance.

Bologna possible starting eleven

Bologna’s 4-2-3-1 is built on stability at the back and fluidity up front. Skorupski’s form between the sticks gives confidence, while Lucumi and Miranda boast strong recent stats in interceptions and distribution. The midfield trio of Ferguson, Freuler, and Moro provides tactical discipline and ball retention, with Ferguson in particular pivotal as the engine. Castro leads the line but is supported ably by Orsolini and Cambiaghi on the wings, promising a lot of interchanging and pressing.

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My take on the Match

This fixture is delicately poised—Udinese always offer more at home but lack the consistency and defensive grit Bologna have manufactured this season. Bologna’s energy, tactical discipline, and explosive players in Castro and Ferguson seem poised to edge them in front, especially against an Udinese rearguard still finding cohesion. My pick? Bologna to win, or Draw No Bet for those seeking insurance. Regardless, expect goals and drama—this game should deliver a fine showcase of Serie A football’s evolving tactical chessboard.

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