Liam Duckstein
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Sassuolo host Cesena at the Mapei Stadium in the Coppa Italia 2026/27 Round 1 on Monday evening. On paper this looks like a straightforward task for Alberto Aquilani’s side, but Cesena arrive in genuinely good form, having gone unbeaten in their last five matches with four wins, which makes this tie far less predictable than the odds suggest.
Two names worth tracking in this fixture are Sassuolo’s forward line operating under the 3-4-2-1 shape, where the two attacking midfielders behind the lone striker tend to carry the creative load, and Cesena’s wide attackers in their 4-3-3 system, who have contributed heavily to the team’s recent run of scoring form. Cesena have put together back-to-back 3-0 and 5-0 wins before drawing with Forli in their most recent outing, a level of output that should not be brushed aside.
Hot stat: Cesena put five goals past SSD Sampierana and followed that up with a 3-0 win over FC Fossombrone 1949, scoring eight goals across two consecutive games during their current unbeaten run.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Coppa Italia 2026/27, Round 1 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore, Reggio Emilia |
| 🗓️ Date: | 17.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:30 CEST |
Sassuolo vs Cesena Prediction
Sassuolo are the clear favourites at home in a knockout cup tie, and the bookmakers back that with roughly 61% win probability. The home side’s 3-4-2-1 setup gives them structural solidity, and playing at the Mapei Stadium adds a familiar comfort. We predict a Sassuolo win in regulation, but the margin may be tight given Cesena’s current momentum.
The best value here sits with Sassuolo on the moneyline at around 1.52, combined with Over 2.5 goals. Cesena have been scoring freely, and Sassuolo’s recent results show they have been involved in open matches. The two previous head-to-head meetings both ended in Sassuolo wins with goals on both sides, which supports expecting a lively game.
Cesena’s style in a 4-3-3 tends to press high and commit numbers forward, which can leave space on the counter. Sassuolo, if they absorb pressure well and use their attacking midfielders efficiently, should find those gaps. To be honest, Cesena’s aggressive approach makes this more of a goal-fest than a cautious affair, and that plays into the Over 2.5 markets nicely.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Sassuolo to win & Over 2.5 Goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Sassuolo have had a mixed stretch over the last 30 days, picking up two wins, three losses, and a draw from six matches, for a 33% win rate. Their last five games include a 4-1 win over Padova, which is the most positive result in that sequence, but they also dropped points against Trento (0-2 loss) and drew 0-0 with US Folgore Caratese, a side ranked far below Serie B level. The most recent results against FC Augsburg (2-3 loss) and Celta Vigo (1-4 loss) came against higher-rated opposition in what appear to be pre-season friendlies, so those scorelines carry limited weight. Still, Sassuolo’s defensive consistency has been a concern, as they have conceded in most recent outings.
Cesena come into this fixture on a much stronger run. Four wins from their last five matches, zero losses in that period, and an 80% win rate over the last 30 days makes them the form team heading into this tie. Their wins over Vis Pesaro (3-0), FC Fossombrone 1949 (3-0), Carpi (1-0), and SSD Sampierana (5-0) show both attacking output and clean sheet ability. Alessandro Diamanti’s side drew 0-0 with Forli in their most recent outing, which is the only blemish in an otherwise impressive run. The 4-3-3 shape has been working well for them, and they arrive with real confidence.
Cesena. Source: Official Facebook
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
Sassuolo and Cesena have met twice recently in Serie B, and Sassuolo won both encounters.
| Statistic | Sassuolo | Cesena |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 4 | 1 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Sassuolo vs Cesena stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Sassuolo the Favourite
- Moneyline Sassuolo 1.52 | Cesena 5.46
- Draw 4.48
- Over/Under Over 2.5 — | Under 2.5 —
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — | No —
The odds on Sassuolo at around 1.52 reflect their home advantage and the quality gap between the two clubs in terms of league level. Cesena at 5.46 looks generous given their form, but the venue and Sassuolo’s structural quality make an upset unlikely. The draw at 4.48 is not worth chasing in a cup tie where one team is heavily fancied and the other will likely push forward to try and cause an upset. We see the value in backing Sassuolo to win while expecting both teams to find the net.
Possible Starting Lineups
No confirmed player data is available for either squad ahead of this fixture. Lineups will be updated closer to kick-off.
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Sassuolo. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict a Sassuolo win in this Coppa Italia Round 1 tie. The head-to-head record strongly favours the hosts, who have beaten Cesena in both recent Serie B meetings. Sassuolo’s home record and tactical setup in a 3-4-2-1 should give them enough control to see off a Cesena side that, despite their form, have been beating lower-division opposition.
Cesena’s attacking 4-3-3 and their recent scoring streak do make them a threat going forward, so we expect goals at both ends. The Sassuolo win combined with Over 2.5 goals and BTTS is our preferred combination for this match. Perhaps the scoreline will mirror the 2-1 result from their August 2024 meeting, but a 2-1 or 3-1 home win feels like the most likely outcome.
