Liam Duckstein
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Pisa and Empoli meet at Arena Garibaldi in the first round of the Coppa Italia 2026/27, a Tuscan derby that carries more weight than a typical cup opener. Pisa enter as home favourites despite a difficult recent stretch, while Empoli arrive in noticeably better shape, having avoided defeat in their last three outings. The one previous competitive data point between these sides — a 3-2 Pisa win in a July 2025 friendly — suggests both teams are capable of trading goals, which shapes how we approach this match.
Two players worth watching are Empoli’s attacking options in the 4-3-3, who have been central to their recent winning goal against Entella, and Pisa’s forward line, which produced a sharp 4-1 result against Bologna in their most recent fixture — the clearest sign that Pisa can still hurt teams on their day.
Hot stat: Pisa put four goals past Bologna in their last competitive match, their most productive attacking display across all recent fixtures. That result stands out sharply against an otherwise goal-shy run of form.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Coppa Italia 2026/27 — Round 1 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Arena Garibaldi, Pisa |
| 🗓️ Date: | 17.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:00 CEST |
Pisa vs Empoli Prediction
Empoli are the better-performing side right now. Their last 30 days show one win and two draws with zero losses, compared to Pisa’s zero wins in that same window. Empoli’s year-to-date win rate of 17% also outpaces Pisa’s 4%, which is a stark gap for two sides playing at this level.
Pisa’s home advantage at Arena Garibaldi matters, and the bookmakers reflect that with a 50% win probability for the hosts. To be honest, that feels slightly generous given how little Pisa have won this year. Empoli’s odds at around 4.30 represent real value for a team in better form heading into this fixture.
We predict an Empoli win or a draw as the most likely range of outcomes. The cup format adds unpredictability, but Empoli’s consistency over the past month is hard to ignore. Both teams line up in a 4-3-3, so the midfield battle will be direct and competitive — neither side will dominate possession without a fight.
- Primary prediction: Empoli Win or Draw (Double Chance)
- Value pick: Empoli to win at approximately 4.30 odds
- Goals market: Under 2.5 goals — Pisa’s recent form has been low-scoring outside the Bologna anomaly
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Empoli Double Chance (Draw or Empoli Win) |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Pisa have struggled for consistency across the year, picking up just one win in 24 matches in 2026. Their recent form shows a team that draws more than it wins, with their last 30 days producing two draws and one loss. The most recent fixture, a 4-1 win over Bologna, is the bright spot — though Bologna’s own form at the time was poor, which tempers how much weight to place on that result. Before that, Pisa lost 0-1 to Pro Vercelli and drew 1-1 with Pavia, which paints a more accurate picture of where this squad is. Under coach Paolo Bianco, the 4-3-3 structure gives them shape, but converting chances consistently has been the persistent issue.
Empoli arrive with more momentum. Coach Guido Pagliuca’s side has gone unbeaten in their last three matches, drawing 1-1 with Livorno, drawing 1-1 with Spezia, and winning 1-0 against Entella before that. Their year includes four wins from 23 matches, which is modest in absolute terms, but the recent uptick in results suggests the team is finding its rhythm. Prior to the current run, Empoli drew 2-2 with Monza and beat Avellino 1-0 — two results that show defensive solidity and the ability to grind out results. The 4-3-3 shape mirrors Pisa’s setup, making this a tactically balanced encounter.
Pisa. Source: Official Facebook
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
These two sides have limited recent competitive history, but the one documented meeting gives us a useful reference point.
| Statistic | Pisa | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 2 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Pisa vs Empoli stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Pisa the Favourite
- Moneyline Pisa 1.83–2.00 | Empoli 3.80–4.39
- Draw 3.20–3.52
- Over/Under Over 2.5 — available across listed bookmakers | Under 2.5 — available across listed bookmakers
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — available | No — available
The market gives Pisa a 50% implied probability of winning, which is reasonable for a home side in a cup tie. Empoli’s odds in the 4.30 range do carry value, though, given their superior recent form. Pinnacle’s line of 1.83 on Pisa and 4.39 on Empoli is the sharpest available and reflects a market that respects Pisa’s home advantage without fully discounting Empoli’s momentum. William Hill’s 2.00 on Pisa stands out as the most generous home odds if you lean toward the hosts.
Possible Starting Lineups
Player-level data was not available for this fixture, so the lineups below cannot be confirmed from appearance records.
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Empoli. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
This is a match where the numbers lean toward Empoli more than the odds suggest. Pisa’s home form and cup-tie atmosphere keep them competitive, and that 4-1 win over Bologna shows they can produce when the conditions are right. The problem is that result is an outlier in an otherwise poor year.
Empoli’s unbeaten run over the last three matches, combined with their ability to keep games tight, makes the double chance market the safest route. We predict Empoli win or draw as the primary bet, with under 2.5 goals as a supporting selection. Perhaps the most telling detail is Pisa’s 4% win rate across 24 matches in 2026 — that is not the profile of a team you back heavily at home, even in the cup.
Empoli at 4.30 is where the real value sits for those comfortable with the outright pick. The match figures to be competitive, low-scoring, and decided by a single moment of quality or a set piece — exactly the kind of game where Empoli’s recent defensive discipline gives them the edge.
