Liam Duckstein
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Thun open their home campaign in the Conference League league phase already chasing points after a defeat on matchday one, while Hajduk Split arrive in Switzerland sitting comfortably inside the top ten after a 2-1 win over Twente away from home. The two clubs could not be trending in more opposite directions right now. Hajduk have lost only once in their last 15 matches across all competitions, a run that includes three wins in their last four outings. Thun, by contrast, have won just four of their last 15 and currently sit bottom of the 36-team phase table on goal difference alone.
Marko Livaja remains the player Thun’s backline will be most wary of, his movement and link play setting the tone for Hajduk even in matches where his name does not hit the scoresheet. On the home side, Simon Lengen has given Thun’s attack a spark in recent weeks, scoring in his last appearance and offering a direct outlet that Privitelli’s side badly needs against a defense as organized as Hajduk’s.
Hot stat: Hajduk Split have won 12 of their last 15 matches in all competitions, losing just once in that stretch, a record that dwarfs Thun’s four wins from their equivalent sample.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Conference League 2026/27, League Phase |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stockhorn Arena, Thun |
| 🗓️ Date: | 22.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
Thun vs Hajduk Split prediction
We back Hajduk Split to win this one. The visitors have the sharper attack, the tighter defense and a squad that looks considerably more confident right now. Thun’s home form has not been the problem this season so much as their inconsistency in general, and a side conceding goals at the rate they have over the last month gives Hajduk’s front three plenty to work with. The bookmaker spread, with Hajduk priced as favourites despite travelling, backs up what the underlying numbers already suggest.
Style-wise, the contrast is clear. Hajduk commit more fouls per game and pick up more yellow cards than Thun, a sign of a side that presses aggressively and is willing to break up play higher up the pitch. Their pass volume over the last five matches dwarfs Thun’s, pointing to a team that controls tempo and forces opponents into deeper, more reactive shapes. Thun tend to play more directly, which can occasionally catch a possession-heavy side cold, but it has also left them exposed defensively against teams of similar or lesser quality. We expect Hajduk’s control of the ball to translate into control of the match itself.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Hajduk Split to win & Under 2.5 Goals combo |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Thun’s last five matches tell a story of a side struggling for consistency. A 2-2 draw with Schaffhausen was their most recent outing, a result that followed a 0-1 home defeat to Twente, a 2-4 loss to Zurich, and wins over Kriens (2-0) and Vaduz (2-1). The draw with Schaffhausen summed up their season well: they led, conceded late, and could not hold on, a pattern that has cost them points repeatedly. In our preview of Twente vs Thun we backed the home side to win comfortably off the back of Thun’s leaky defense, and the 0-1 scoreline confirmed the right winner even if the margin stayed tight.
Hajduk Split’s recent form reads almost the opposite way. Their last match was a 1-0 win over Varazdin, continuing a run of results where they have consistently found a way to win even when the performance has not been their most fluid. Before that came wins over Ajax (2-1) and Dinamo Zagreb (2-1), a 0-3 defeat to Rijeka being the only blemish in that stretch, followed by a 1-0 win over Slaven Belupo. In our preview of Hajduk Split vs Varazdin we predicted a clean sheet win for the home side built around Sanyang and Šego creating the chances, and the 1-0 result landed exactly as called.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
Thun and Hajduk Split have no recent competitive meetings on record between them, so there is no past head-to-head data to draw from for this fixture.
🚨Check out our dedicated Thun vs Hajduk Split stats page for more info.
Thun. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Hajduk Split the favourite
- Moneyline Thun 2.80 | Hajduk Split 2.45
- Draw 3.40
The market leans toward Hajduk Split despite the away tag, and we think that is the right read. Odds hovering near 2.40 for the visitors against a Thun side priced closer to 2.80 reflect the gap in recent form and squad quality fairly accurately. A draw at odds around 3.40 feels like fair value as an each-way hedge given Thun’s tendency to stay competitive even in losses, but our money stays on the away win.
Possible Starting Lineups
Thun possible starting eleven
- GK: Niklas Steffen
- DF: Nicolas Bürgy, Fabio Fehr, Jan Bamert, Louis Immanuel Passavant
- MF: Nassim Zoukit, Justin Roth, Tom Strannegard, Nico Maier, Dorian Derbaci
- FW: Furkan Dursun
Privitelli tends to set up in a 4-2-3-1, leaning on Zoukit and Roth to shield the back four while Derbaci, who already has a goal in his last two outings, gets license to drift forward. Fabio Fehr’s passing numbers make him the key link down the left, and Dursun leads the line alone, a tough ask against a defense as settled as Hajduk’s.
Hajduk Split possible starting eleven
- GK: Toni Silic
- DF: Dario Marešić, Dennis Hadzikadunić, Mathieu Acapandie, Simun Hrgovic
- MF: Khalil Fayad, Alberto del Moral, Dalisson De Almeida Leite
- FW: Marko Livaja, Abdoulie Sanyang, Michele Šego
Gonzalo García’s 4-3-3 is built around Fayad dictating play from deep, with Marešić and Hadzikadunić’s passing numbers underlining how comfortable this back line is in possession. Up front, Sanyang has been directly involved in three goals across the last five matches and looks the one most likely to punish Thun’s defensive lapses, with Livaja pulling the strings around him.
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Hajduk Split. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Hajduk Split to win in Thun, perhaps not by a wide margin but comfortably enough on the balance of play. Thun’s defensive record over the last five matches, conceding in every single one of them, lines up poorly against a Hajduk side that has kept clean sheets twice in that same stretch and rarely looks rattled against sides below their level. Our staff lean toward Hajduk Split to win combined with under 2.5 total goals, a pairing that reflects both Thun’s struggles to create high-quality chances at home and Hajduk’s habit of winning games by a single goal rather than running up the score. To be honest, a repeat of the tight, low-scoring away wins Hajduk have produced recently feels like the most realistic outcome here.
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