Liam Duckstein
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Hajduk Split welcome Varazdin to Poljud with just one point separating the two sides at the top of the 1. HNL table. Hajduk sit first with 19 points from nine games, Varazdin trail by a single point in second. This is as close to a title six-pointer as round nine can offer.
The sides bring contrasting momentum into the fixture. Hajduk arrive on the back of a statement 2-1 win over Ajax, a result that gave their home crowd something to shout about. Varazdin, by contrast, have gone four matches without a loss but have drawn three of those, scoring just once in the process. Perhaps the most interesting wrinkle here is that the away side’s unbeaten run has been built almost entirely on defensive discipline rather than attacking threat.
Abdoulije Sanyang has been Hajduk’s sharpest attacking weapon of late, scoring twice in three outings and offering a direct outlet in behind. Marko Livaja remains the name every Poljud crowd wants to see, and if fit, his movement and set-piece quality change the complexion of this game instantly. For Varazdin, Ivan Canjuga is the focal point up front, a full-minutes player in every recent fixture who carries most of the shot volume for his side.
Hot stat: Varazdin have scored just one goal across their last five matches combined, yet remain unbeaten in four of them. That is an extraordinary defensive record for a side sitting second in the table, but it also tells us where the goals are likely to come from on Sunday, and it probably will not be the away end.
| 🏆 Tournament: | 1. HNL 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadion Poljud, Split |
| 🗓️ Date: | 18.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 15:00 CEST |
Hajduk Split vs Varazdin prediction
We predict Hajduk Split to win this one, and we lean toward backing them without conceding. Hajduk have won eleven of their last fifteen league matches and carry real attacking threat through Sanyang and Šego, while Varazdin have not scored more than once in a single match since early September. Poljud will be loud, and Gonzalo García’s side have shown they can raise their level against better opposition, as the Ajax result proved just days ago.
Varazdin’s approach under Nikola Safaric is built on patience and low fouls committed relative to the league, just 28 fouls across their last five matches compared to Hajduk’s 40. That discipline keeps them in games but rarely produces enough final-third quality to break down a well-organized home side. Hajduk’s higher shot volume (37 attempts in five matches against Varazdin’s 27) and stronger pass completion suggest they should dominate territory, which combined with Varazdin’s low scoring output points toward a controlled home win rather than an open contest.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Hajduk Split to win & keep a clean sheet |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Hajduk’s last outing against Ajax ended 2-1 in their favor, a result that stood out given the Dutch club’s rating sits far above anything else they have faced recently. Before that, Hajduk beat Dinamo Zagreb 2-1 as well, though a 0-3 away defeat to Rijeka sits in between their last five results as the one blemish. The pattern is clear: Hajduk are nearly unbeatable at home and vulnerable only on the road against the league’s other top sides. In our preview of Hajduk Split vs Ajax we called for the European visitors to eventually take over and win comfortably, and the 2-1 scoreline went against that read as Hajduk held firm at Poljud and got the job done late.
Varazdin’s most recent match ended in a tidy 1-0 win over Lokomotiva Zagreb, snapping a run of three straight draws against Aluminij, Osijek, and Gorica. Those three draws, two of them goalless, highlight a side that is hard to break down but struggles to find a cutting edge going forward. Safaric’s team looks well drilled defensively, conceding just seven goals in nine league games, the best defensive record in the division, yet that same caution may work against them at a ground where Hajduk rarely drop points.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Hajduk Split | Varazdin |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (last 7 meetings) | 8 | 8 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Hajduk Split vs Varazdin stats page for more info.
Varazdin. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Hajduk Split the favourite
- Moneyline Hajduk Split 1.79 | Varazdin 4.52
- Draw 3.25
The market agrees with our reading here. Hajduk sit as clear favorites across every bookmaker we checked, with odds hovering around 1.75 to 1.83, while Varazdin’s price stretches past 4.00 almost everywhere, in some books nearing 5.00. That gap reflects both home advantage and Varazdin’s recent scoring drought. The draw price sitting around 3.00 to 3.50 also feels fair given how many of Varazdin’s recent matches have ended level, but we still think Hajduk’s home quality edges this one toward a straightforward three points.
Possible Starting Lineups
Hajduk Split possible starting eleven
- GK: Toni Silic
- DF: Dario Marešić, Simun Hrgovic, Mathieu Acapandie, Ron Raqi
- MF: Khalil Fayad, Dalisson De Almeida Leite, Alberto del Moral, Michele Šego, marin soticek
- FW: Abdoulije Sanyang
Gonzalo García should stick with the 4-2-3-1 that has worked across the last five matches. Dalisson and Fayad shield the back four, both logging the heaviest passing loads in the squad, while Šego and soticek drift inside from wide areas to support Sanyang. Keep an eye on Livaja’s fitness, as his return from the bench could shift this attack into a different gear entirely.
Varazdin possible starting eleven
- GK: Josip Silic
- DF: Novak Tepsic, Frane Maglica, Mario Mladenovski, elvir durakovic
- MF: luka mamic, Mario Marina, Aleksa Latkovic, Tomislav Duvnjak, Ivan Posavec
- FW: Ivan Canjuga
Safaric mirrors the same 4-2-3-1 shape, leaning on a settled back four that has barely changed across the last two matches. Canjuga leads the line alone and carries most of the shot responsibility, with mamic and Latkovic tasked with feeding him from deeper positions. This group has proven hard to beat, but creating enough separation from a deep Hajduk block will be the real test.
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Hajduk Split. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We back Hajduk Split to win this table-topping clash, and to be honest, we expect it to come with a clean sheet attached. Varazdin have not found the net more than once in a match since early September, and their recent draws have come against sides without the attacking depth Hajduk possesses. Sanyang and Šego should create enough chances to break through, perhaps twice, while Varazdin’s low shot volume in recent games suggests Hajduk’s defense can hold firm. Our staff lean toward Hajduk to win and under 2.5 total goals as the combination that best reflects both teams’ recent form.
