The New Saints vs Sabah Baku Prediction: 14 July 2026 UEFA Champions League

The New Saints host Sabah Baku at Park Hall in Oswestry on 14 July in the second leg of their UEFA Champions League 2026/27 First Qualifying Round tie. TNS go into this match already trailing 0-2 from the first leg played just days ago, making this essentially a must-win situation for Craig Harrison’s side if they want to keep their European campaign alive. Sabah Baku, coached by Valdas Dambrauskas, arrive in Wales with the luxury of defending a lead, and bookmakers have them as clear favourites at around 57% implied probability. The Welsh champions have done this before, grinding through European qualifying, but a two-goal deficit against a side ranked far above them in global club rankings is a steep ask.

Two players worth watching closely here. Veljko Simić of Sabah Baku scored twice and registered two assists across the last two matches, making him the most dangerous individual on the pitch. For The New Saints, Jordan Williams leads the line and will need to be at his sharpest, having put in 178 minutes across the last two games without finding the net yet. If TNS are going to stage any kind of comeback, Williams has to be the focal point.

Hot stat: Sabah Baku registered 22 total shots and 22 corners across their last two matches, a level of attacking dominance that completely dwarfed The New Saints’ two total shots and four corners in the same period. That gap in attacking output is not a minor detail.

The New Saints vs Sabah Baku Prediction

Sabah Baku winning or the tie ending with both teams scoring feels like the most logical outcome here. TNS lost the first leg 0-2 and, in domestic competition recently, dropped two of their last four matches including a 1-2 defeat to Bangor 1876. Their attacking output in the two most recent matches was minimal, just two shots total, and that is not a platform from which you stage a comeback in European football.

Sabah Baku did lose 1-4 to Polissya in their most recent club match before this tie, which is worth noting, but that appears to be an outlier in an otherwise consistent run. Their year-to-date record of 17 wins from 26 matches and a 65% winrate points to a team with enough quality to manage this second leg from a position of strength. We think Sabah Baku will score here, and TNS may grab one given the open nature of a must-win game, which makes BTTS a reasonable angle.

The 4-3-3 setup both sides have been running recently creates space in transition, and with TNS forced to push forward, Sabah’s forwards, especially Simić, should find room to exploit on the counter. The New Saints have been picking up yellow cards, with Jordan Williams and Daniel Williams both booked in recent games, and a desperate second leg could lead to more disciplinary issues as pressure mounts.

Sabah Baku’s style in possession, combined with their corner and shot volume, suggests they will be active from set pieces. TNS conceded from open play in the first leg and may struggle again to contain Sabah’s wide options. Corners over 9.5 in this match looks like a solid market given the 22 corners Sabah racked up across two recent games alone.

Team Analysis

The New Saints had a mixed domestic run heading into this second leg. They beat HW Welders 2-1 and drew 1-1 with Glentoran, but lost 1-2 to Bangor 1876, and the first leg against Sabah ended in a 0-2 defeat. Their year-to-date record of 12 wins from 17 matches (71% winrate) is genuinely impressive for a Welsh Premier League side, and they did win four of their last five before the recent European games. The problem is that European opposition is a completely different proposition, and their attacking numbers in those two most recent matches, both against Sabah, were near non-existent. Only two shots across both games combined. That is not just a bad night; it reflects the level difference between these two clubs at this stage of the competition.

Sabah Baku’s recent form is more complex than it first appears. They won the first leg 2-0, but directly before that they were beaten 1-4 by Polissya, which is a notable result against a side with a modest global ranking. Before that loss, they drew 1-1 with Universitatea Craiova and beat Turan 2-1. Their domestic record includes a 1-2 defeat to Neftci Baku as well. Honestly, Sabah are not unbeatable, and there are moments in their recent run where they have looked vulnerable. But they arrive here with a two-goal cushion, and that changes everything about how they will set up. Dambrauskas can afford to sit deeper and hit on the break, which plays right into Simić and Parris’s hands as a counter-attacking combination.

🚨Check out our dedicated The New Saints vs Sabah Baku stats page for more info.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Sabah Baku the favourite

• Moneyline The New Saints 4.48 | Sabah Baku 1.66
• Draw 3.97
• Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A

The odds are telling a clear story. Sabah Baku at around 1.61-1.67 across bookmakers reflects the aggregate situation as much as the quality gap. TNS at 4.33-4.80 is not completely without value if you believe in a home upset, but the shot and corner data from the first leg makes that a tough sell. The draw at 3.80-4.20 is interesting only in the context of Sabah potentially sitting on their lead, but we think they will still look to score and not just defend. Pinnacle’s line of 4.48/3.97/1.66 is probably the sharpest read on this game, and Sabah at 1.66 with Pinnacle represents fair market value given the context.

Possible Starting Lineups

The New Saints possible starting eleven

Craig Harrison has been consistent in his selections across the last two matches, with Nathan Sheppard between the posts and a compact midfield built around Daniel Redmond, Daniel Williams, Dominic Corness, and Eoin Farrell. All four midfielders have logged the full 180 minutes across both recent games. Jack Bodenham is the confirmed defensive presence. Up front, Jordan Williams has been the primary attacking outlet with 178 minutes played, while Ryan Brobbell offers an option off the bench or in a support role. In a 4-3-3 shape, Harrison will need his midfield to press higher than in the first leg if TNS are going to create anything meaningful. Daniel Williams, despite picking up two yellow cards recently, will need to be aggressive in the middle. Jack Nadin’s playing time data is unclear, so his role remains uncertain.

Sabah Baku possible starting eleven

Stas Pokatilov starts in goal with a back line featuring Akim Zedadka, who picked up two yellow cards in recent games, Steve Solvet, who carries two red cards across the period (suggesting suspension risk), and Tymoteusz Puchacz, who has been one of the more creative defenders with two assists. Ivan Lepinjica anchors the midfield with 180 minutes played. The attacking unit is where Sabah have their real weapons. Veljko Simić with two goals and two assists is the standout, Kaheem Parris has two goals in just 26 minutes of action, suggesting he is being used as an impact substitute. Joy Lance Mickels offers width and direct running. Dambrauskas will likely set up in a 4-3-3 and allow his forwards to exploit any space TNS leave behind as they chase the game.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

The head-to-head data from the first leg is stark. Sabah Baku had 22 shots to The New Saints’ two, 22 corners to four, and won 2-0 at their own ground. TNS now need to overturn that deficit at Park Hall, and while home advantage matters in Welsh football, the quality gap exposed in the first leg does not simply disappear because the venue changes. Sabah have the pace and the finishing to hurt a TNS side that will be forced to open up.

We think Sabah Baku win this match and advance on aggregate. The most likely scenario is a game where TNS push forward, create some chances out of desperation, and Sabah score at least once on the counter. Both teams scoring feels realistic given the open nature of a must-win second leg. Our main prediction is Sabah Baku to win, with over 2.5 goals as the supporting market. If you want a more specific angle, Sabah scoring in both halves at a boosted price is worth a look given how they controlled the first leg from start to finish.

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