Sweden (w) vs France (w) Prediction: 02.12.2025 UEFA Women's Nations League 2025 Preview

The 3rd place phase of the UEFA Women’s Nations League 2025 brings a compelling encounter between Sweden (w) and France (w) at Brann Stadion in Bergen. While both teams are renowned for their resilient tournament runs, this showdown offers a chance at redemption: Sweden, coming off a narrow defeat, seeks to restore their standing, whereas France’s momentum makes them slight favourites according to bookmakers and recent results. Not since their previous close encounter, which France edged 2-1, have the stakes been this emotionally charged between these European powerhouses.

A key focus in this match is Stina Blackstenius, with two goals in her last two outings for Sweden and a proven ability to find space in the penalty area. On the French side, the versatile Sakina Karchaoui has been exceptional—netting twice and assisting twice in her past two appearances, while anchoring their midfield transitions. Their form and influence could decide the tempo and outcome of this contest.

France (w) have registered 22 total shots in their last five games, but what truly stands out is their consistency in ball retention—832 completed passes with a rate of 81 percent, underlining their tactical discipline and ball control.

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Sweden (w) vs France (w) prediction

Given the tactical setups and recent form, the best value lies in supporting France (w) Draw No Bet. Sweden have not won in their last three matches and have demonstrated vulnerabilities in both defense and attack, registering just one goal in their last two matches. Meanwhile, France (w) have bounced back from a draw against Germany to claim critical wins, showcasing an ability to control games, particularly with their 4-3-3 formation allowing wide players like Karchaoui and Mbock Bathy to influence the game at both ends of the pitch.

Statistically, France (w) averaged 22 shots to Sweden’s 14 in recent matches, indicating a more aggressive attacking posture. However, both teams commit around 11-12 fouls and yellow cards have been relatively evenly distributed, suggesting a contested midfield. The pass accuracy numbers (France at 81%, Sweden at 78%) suggest that France’s possession advantage and ability to break Swedish lines with quick passing could be decisive. Additionally, France (w) have averaged fewer interceptions but make up for it with sustained pressure and winning balls higher up the pitch, which may force Sweden into mistakes in their own defensive third.

Team Analysis

Sweden (w)’s recent performances offer a mixed picture. Their last match against France (w) ended 1-2, with Sweden generating 14 shots but failing to convert critical chances. Prior to that, a 0-1 defeat versus Spain (w) further underscored their attacking frustration, compounded by the earlier 0-4 loss to the same Spanish side. Their only recent bright spot was a resilient 2-2 draw against England (w), demonstrating tenacity but also underscoring defensive frailties, particularly when pressed. Sweden’s anticipated reliance on quick transitions and their talismanic forward Blackstenius means their success hinges on capitalizing on rapid counterattacks and set pieces.

France (w), under Laurent Bonadei, have gone from strength to strength. In their latest clash, they held off a determined Swedish side, coming from behind for a 2-1 win. Their stable 4-3-3 shape has yielded positive continuity: a 2-2 draw against Germany (w) and a commanding 5-2 win over Netherlands (w) demonstrate both resilience and attacking flair. Notably, France’s midfield, led by Geyoro and Karchaoui, has excelled at recycling possession and breaking opposition blocks. Their high press has forced turnovers and created high-quality chances for the versatile forward line.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Sweden (w) vs France (w) stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: France (w) the favourite

• Moneyline Sweden (w) 2.60 | France (w) 2.40
• Draw 3.25 – 3.40
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.90 | Under 2.5 1.80
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.72 | No 2.00

Bookmakers give France (w) a slight edge, reflecting their recent strong run (12 wins in the last 15 matches) and more stable performances. Sweden’s price lengthens due to patchy form and an attack that has struggled against high-level defenses. With high shot volume and creative midfielders, France look well placed to edge out tight exchanges, but the market respects Sweden’s pedigree and threat from set pieces, keeping the moneyline reasonably close.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Sweden (w) possible starting eleven

• GK: Jennifer Falk
• DF: Nathalie Bjorn, Linda Sembrant, Hanna Lundkvist, Smilla Holmberg
• MF: Julia Zigiotti Olme, Filippa Angeldal, Madelen Janogy
• FW: Stina Blackstenius, Kosovare Asllani, Johanna Kaneryd

This lineup reflects Sweden primary starters over their last five outings, keeping the trusted backline and the energetic Blackstenius up top. Expect a 4-3-3 formation, relying heavily on the pace of Kaneryd and the creativity of Asllani in support. Bjorn’s leadership in defense is crucial, and Angeldal offers precision on set pieces. The dynamic midfield three must cope with France’s aggressive pressing.

France (w) possible starting eleven

• GK: Pauline Peyraud Magnin
• DF: Maelle Lakrar, Griedge Mbock Bathy, Alice Sombath, Elisa De Almeida
• MF: Sakina Karchaoui, Grace Geyoro, Sandy Baltimore
• FW: Kadidiatou Diani, Delphine Cascarino, Melvine Malard

Former performances indicate that France will persist with their 4-3-3. Mbock Bathy is vital for defensive stability (and occasional goals), while Karchaoui’s recent form in midfield makes her the orchestrator and a goal threat. Watch for Diani and Malard, who possess the pace and technical ability to exploit transition moments. Geyoro anchors the midfield, providing structure and ball progression.

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My take on the Match

While Sweden (w) can always be counted on for a battling performance, France (w) arrive with better momentum, squad depth, and a more direct attacking threat. With the likes of Karchaoui and Mbock Bathy in such outstanding form, and their midfield dominating possession, France (w) should have the cutting edge needed for victory. My pick is France (w) Draw No Bet for value, and over 2.5 goals as both teams play openly and create chances.

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