Liam Duckstein
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Two of the three worst teams in Serie A meet at the Tardini, and neither side arrives with much confidence. Parma sit 19th with four points from eight games, Udinese are one place and one point better off in 17th. Neither club has won in October, and both coaches, Alberto Gilardino and Kosta Runjaic, are under real pressure heading into this one. The interesting wrinkle here is that Udinese, despite sitting below Parma on form over the last month, are still the bookmakers’ favourite, a sign that the market trusts their travelling record more than Parma’s home form right now.
Watch El Bilal Toure for Parma, he has carried most of the attacking threat with seven shots in his last three outings even without a goal to show for it yet. On the Udinese side, Jurgen Ekkelenkamp has been their most productive attacker, scoring and creating chances from midfield while the rest of the squad has gone quiet in front of goal.
Hot stat: Parma have shipped three goals in back-to-back away matches this season (0-3 to Torino, then 0-3 to Inter), eight goals conceded in just two games. That kind of defensive collapse explains why their home form is being watched so closely tonight.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Serie A 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Ennio Tardini, Parma |
| 🗓️ Date: | 28.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 19:30 CEST |
Parma vs Udinese prediction
We predict Udinese edge this one, backed by the slightly stronger away record and a defense that, while shaky, has not been as porous as Parma’s at home. Udinese’s 39% implied win chance against Parma’s 32% lines up with what the underlying numbers show: more accurate passing, a cleaner shape going forward, and a squad that has at least found one draw in their last four games while Parma have found none.
Parma’s style leans physical, with 28 fouls and four yellow cards across their last five matches compared to Udinese’s 31 fouls but only three cards. Udinese complete passes at a noticeably higher rate, 86% against Parma’s 81%, which should let them control midfield phases and dictate tempo even away from home. Expect a scrappy, low-event match where neither side musters much quality in the final third, but Udinese’s extra composure on the ball should be the difference.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Udinese win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Parma have lost four of their last five, the only exception a 2-1 home win over Genoa. Their most recent game against Lazio ended 1-2, continuing a worrying trend of conceding first and chasing games they rarely catch up. In our preview of Lazio vs Parma we backed Lazio to win comfortably with goals flowing their way, and the 2-1 scoreline confirmed the win, though the margin was tighter than the blowout we expected. Gilardino’s side now face another test at home where they simply have to find a cleaner defensive structure or risk sliding further down the table.
Udinese have also struggled, losing three of their last four with a solitary draw against Pogon Szczecin breaking up the run. Their last match, a 0-2 home defeat to Milan, extended their scoring drought to four blanks in five games. In our preview of Udinese vs Milan we called Milan to win by two clear goals due to Udinese’s attacking struggles, and the 0-2 result delivered exactly that. Runjaic’s team will need more from Ekkelenkamp and Chakvetadze if they want to turn draws into wins rather than narrow losses.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Parma | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 6 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Parma vs Udinese stats page for more info.
Parma. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Udinese the favourite
- Moneyline Parma 3.00 | Udinese 2.40
- Draw 3.20
The market leans toward Udinese quite clearly, pricing them around 42% to win compared to Parma’s 33%, with a draw sitting near 31%. That gap feels fair given Udinese’s slightly better underlying passing numbers and their one draw in the last four matches, something Parma simply have not managed recently. We would lean toward Udinese on the moneyline, perhaps with a small side bet on the draw given how tight this fixture looks on paper despite the odds gap.
Possible Starting Lineups
Parma possible starting eleven
- GK: Edoardo Corvi
- DF: Mariano Troilo, Enrico DelPrato, Diego Carlos
- MF: Adrián Bernabé García, Mandela Keita, Emanuele Valeri, Sascha Britschgi
- FW: El Bilal Toure, José David Romero, Simone Lontani
Corvi starts in goal having picked up the most saves among the three keepers tracked recently. Troilo and DelPrato anchor the back three, both heavily involved in build-up play, while Valeri and Britschgi provide width in the 3-4-2-1 setup. Toure remains the player to watch up front given his shot volume, with Lontani offering the only recent goal threat among Parma’s forwards.
Udinese possible starting eleven
- GK: Maduka Okoye
- DF: Enzo Ebosse, Mergim Vojvoda, James Abankwah
- MF: Jesper Karlstrom, Oier Zarraga, Hassane Kamara, Matteo Palma
- FW: Jurgen Ekkelenkamp, Giorgi Chakvetadze, Keinan Davis
Okoye keeps his place after a strong save tally in recent weeks, backing a back three built around Ebosse’s ball-playing ability and Vojvoda’s passing range. Karlstrom anchors midfield in Runjaic’s 3-4-2-1 shape, feeding Ekkelenkamp and Chakvetadze, the two most dangerous Udinese players this season, both involved in a combined 12 shots across their last three games.
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Udinese. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
This looks like a nervy, low-quality contest between two sides fighting to avoid the bottom three. We predict Udinese to edge it, perhaps by a single goal, given their slightly cleaner passing and the extra composure they have shown in draws rather than defeats recently. Parma’s home advantage counts for something, but their defensive record, including back-to-back three-goal concessions, makes it hard to trust them against a side that at least knows how to avoid losing. Goals should be rare here, and we would not be surprised if this one finishes level, but on balance Udinese’s away record tips the scale just enough to back them.
