Liam Duckstein
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Lazio sit second in Serie A with the second meanest defense in the league, conceding just four goals through seven rounds. Parma occupy 18th place with four points and a minus nine goal difference, a gap that looks almost comical on paper.
What makes this one worth a second look is the head to head record. Despite the gulf in current form, Parma took points off Lazio in three of the last four meetings between these sides, including a 3-1 away win in early 2025. Gattuso’s men are overwhelming favourites on paper, but this fixture has a habit of not reading the script.
Keep an eye on Gustav Isaksen, who has scored twice in his last two outings for Lazio and offers the pace to stretch a Parma side that has already shipped goals in bunches this term. On the other side, El Bilal Toure carries most of Parma’s attacking burden, leading his side in shots across recent matches, and he will need a big night if Gilardino’s men hope to avoid another lopsided scoreline.
Hot stat: Parma’s numbers from their last five fixtures show zero non-penalty goals from 34 total shots, a conversion record that goes a long way toward explaining their position at the bottom of the table.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Serie A 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadio Olimpico, Rome |
| 🗓️ Date: | 24.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:45 CEST |
Lazio vs Parma prediction
We predict a comfortable Lazio win, and the value sits in the margin rather than the straight moneyline. Lazio have scored six goals across their last five matches and Parma have conceded freely all season, including a 0-3 defeat at home to Torino just days ago. A Lazio win and over 2.5 goals combination looks like the smarter route than backing the short moneyline price alone.
Lazio’s style leans on patient possession, averaging around 82% pass accuracy in their last five games with only 17 fouls committed and five yellow cards picked up, a sign of a disciplined side that rarely gives referees a reason to intervene. Parma play a more direct game, sitting closer to 75% pass accuracy, fewer fouls on the stat sheet but a heavier reliance on long balls and set pieces, shown by their 27 free kicks taken compared to Lazio’s 17. That directness has not translated into goals though, and against a compact Lazio back line it is hard to see that changing on Saturday night.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Lazio -1.5 Asian Handicap |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Lazio arrive on the back of four straight competitive wins, scoring at least two goals in every one of their last five outings, including a 3-0 demolition of Juventus and a 3-1 win over Monza. The only blemish was a wild 3-3 draw with Juve Stabia, but even there the attack found the net three times. In our preview of Juventus vs Lazio we leaned toward a Juventus win built on their shot volume, and the 3-0 result for Lazio went firmly against that call. That result only strengthens our confidence in Gattuso’s side heading into this one.
Parma’s recent form tells a different story entirely. Their last match ended in a 0-3 home defeat to Torino, continuing a run that has brought just one win in five matches, a narrow 2-1 success over Genoa. The 0-3 loss to Inter and the 1-2 defeat to Como fit the same pattern of a defense that cannot hold firm for long stretches. In our preview of Parma vs Torino we backed Torino to win the game, and the eventual 0-3 scoreline delivered that call, even if the margin ended up wider than we expected.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Lazio | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 1 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Lazio vs Parma stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Lazio the favourite
- Moneyline Lazio 1.39 | Parma 8.50
- Draw 4.33
The market is near unanimous here. Lazio’s price has settled around 1.40 across most books, while Parma drift beyond 7.00 almost everywhere, a gap that mirrors the table standings almost exactly. The draw hovering near 4.33 to 4.70 reflects Parma’s recent habit of drawing with Monza and Como rather than any genuine belief they can hold Lazio scoreless at the Olimpico. We see little reason to fade the short price, though the handicap market offers better returns for backers of the obvious result.
Possible Starting Lineups
Lazio possible starting eleven
- GK: Christos Mandas
- DF: Nuno Tavares, Oliver Provstgaard, Josip Šutalo, Romano Floriani Mussolini
- MF: Reda Belahyane, Kenneth Taylor, Mattia Zaccagni, Fisayo Dele-Bashiru, Tijjani Noslin
- FW: Gustav Isaksen
Gattuso sticks with his preferred 4-2-3-1, trusting Belahyane and Taylor to shield the back four while Zaccagni and Noslin rotate behind Isaksen, the man most likely to punish any hesitation from the Parma defense. Tavares offers a constant outlet down the left and his link play with Zaccagni has been a feature of Lazio’s recent attacking output.
Parma possible starting eleven
- GK: Edoardo Corvi
- DF: Enrico DelPrato, Mariano Troilo, Diego Carlos
- MF: Emanuele Valeri, Mandela Keita, Vincent Sierro, Franco Carboni
- FW: Adrián Bernabé García, Giovanni Fabbian, El Bilal Toure
Gilardino keeps faith with the 3-4-2-1 shape that has defined his squad building this season, with Valeri and Carboni pushing on from wingback to add width. Toure leads the line alone and will need service from Bernabé García and Fabbian, the two players tasked with creating in behind a Lazio midfield that rarely gives up easy space.
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Parma. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
Lazio’s form and Parma’s defensive struggles point toward one outcome. Our punters team backs Lazio to win comfortably, perhaps 3-0 or 3-1, with the attack led by Isaksen finding joy against a back line that has shipped goals in bulk all season. Over 2.5 goals and a clean sheet for Mandas both look like solid supporting bets, and to be honest, the handicap line offers more value than simply taking the heavily backed moneyline price.
