Liam Duckstein
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Udinese sit sixteenth in Serie A with just four points from seven games, a run that has left Kosta Runjaic under genuine pressure. Milan arrive in fourth place, four points off the top, carrying the kind of attacking form that has produced eight goals in their last five outings. The interesting wrinkle here is just how lopsided the underlying numbers already look before kickoff: Udinese have managed a single goal across their last five matches combined, while Milan have put eight past opponents in the same span. That gap rarely closes overnight, and we think it shapes almost everything about how this one plays out at the Bluenergy Stadium.
Watch Adrien Rabiot for Milan. He has been directly involved in four goals over his last four appearances (two goals, two assists) and tends to arrive late into the box from midfield, which gives Udinese’s back three a second problem to solve beyond their usual striker. On the home side, Jurgen Ekkelenkamp is arguably Udinese’s only real attacking spark right now, the sole player in their squad with a goal in the last five matches, and his willingness to shoot from distance (six attempts) stands out in an otherwise toothless attack.
Hot stat: Udinese have scored exactly one goal in their last five matches combined, a number that includes a 3-5 collapse against Inter where they still somehow found the net three times in that single game. Strip that match out and the rest of their recent sample is a blank sheet going forward, which tells its own story heading into this fixture.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Serie A 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Bluenergy Stadium, Udine |
| 🗓️ Date: | 25.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:45 CEST |
Udinese vs Milan prediction
We predict a Milan win here, and not a particularly close one. Udinese have lost three of their last four matches without scoring a single goal in any of them, while Milan have found the net in four of their last five. The bookmaker consensus gives Milan roughly 57% implied probability against Udinese’s 19%, and honestly that split looks fair given the gulf in both form and squad depth right now.
Udinese’s defense has also been generous, conceding sixteen goals across seven league games, the joint-worst mark in the bottom half of the table. Their discipline hasn’t helped either: twenty fouls and multiple cards across their last five matches point to a side chasing games rather than controlling them. Milan, by contrast, pass with far greater accuracy (over 88% completion in recent matches against Udinese’s sub-90%, though tighter than expected) and create more shooting opportunities per game, forty attempts across five matches compared to Udinese’s twenty-nine. That extra sharpness in the final third, paired with Rabiot and Gonçalo Ramos pulling the strings, should be enough to see Milan through with goals to spare.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Milan to lead at half-time and full-time |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Udinese’s recent run reads like a side in freefall. They have lost four of their last five, drawing once against Pogon Szczecin, and their last outing ended in a 0-3 home defeat to Lecce that exposed a defense unable to contain even moderate opposition. In our preview of Udinese vs Lecce we called a narrow home win built on both sides scoring, but the 0-3 scoreline went against us on every count, Udinese never found the net and Lecce ran away with it. That result only deepens our concern about facing a Milan side in better shape.
Milan’s form looks sturdier on paper, though their last match offered a reminder that they are not untouchable. They lost 0-3 away at Bournemouth, their heaviest defeat in recent memory, snapping a run of three wins and a draw in the four games before that. In our preview of Bournemouth vs Milan we expected goals at both ends and leaned toward a tight scoreline, but Milan were shut out completely and the BTTS angle of that call missed. Facing a far weaker Udinese side should suit them better, and we expect the response to show on the scoreboard.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
Milan have dominated this fixture lately, winning three of the last four meetings between these two sides, with Udinese’s only success coming by a 3-0 scoreline in their most recent home game in Serie A 2025/26. Across those four matches Udinese have scored three goals combined, Milan have scored eight, a gap that lines up neatly with what the current form tables suggest.
| Statistic | Udinese | Milan |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 8 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Udinese vs Milan stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Milan the favourite
- Moneyline Udinese 5.18 | Milan 1.68
- Draw 4.01
The market leaves little doubt about who the books expect to win. Milan’s odds sit comfortably below 1.70 across almost every bookmaker we checked, pinnacle included, while Udinese drift above 5.00 on most platforms. That pricing matches the underlying form gap closely, and we see no value in backing the long-shot here. The draw at around 4.00 feels marginally more interesting as a hedge, but it is not where our main prediction lands.
Possible Starting Lineups
Udinese possible starting eleven
- GK: Maduka Okoye
- DF: Oumar Solet, Enzo Ebosse, Mergim Vojvoda
- MF: Hassane Kamara, Jesper Karlstrom, Oier Zarraga, Matteo Palma
- FW: Jurgen Ekkelenkamp, Giorgi Chakvetadze, Keinan Davis
Runjaic has leaned on the 3-4-2-1 shape in his last five games, and we expect it to stay in place here. Okoye has started consistently in goal and has the save numbers to back it up. Solet anchors the back three with the highest minutes among defenders, while Ekkelenkamp gets the nod in the number ten slot given he is the only player in the squad with a goal contribution in recent matches. Keinan Davis leads the line as the focal point up top.
Milan possible starting eleven
- GK: Mike Maignan
- DF: Strahinja Pavlovic, Koni De Winter, Fikayo Tomori
- MF: Pervis Estupinan, Ardon Jashari, Yunus Musah, Davide Bartesaghi
- FW: Christian Pulisic, Adrien Rabiot, Gonçalo Ramos
Amorim sticks with the same 3-4-2-1 structure his squad has used in every recent match. Pavlovic and De Winter have logged the most minutes of anyone on the roster and look locked in alongside Tomori. Rabiot is the player to watch again, operating just behind Gonçalo Ramos, who leads the line on the back of two goals and nine shots in his last three appearances. Maignan remains the clear number one in goal.
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Udinese. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
We predict Milan win this comfortably, perhaps by two clear goals, with Udinese’s attacking struggles proving decisive once again. Their inability to score in four of their last five matches is not a small sample fluke at this point, it is a pattern, and Milan’s defense, shaky as it looked against Bournemouth, should be sharp enough to exploit it at the other end. To be hones, the only scenario that worries us is Milan taking their foot off the gas after a heavy away loss, but with a top-four race still tight, we doubt Amorim allows that complacency to creep in. Back Milan to win, expect goals to flow mostly in their favour, and treat the draw price as the only real alternative worth a second look.
